global futures and strategic foresight

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

CIAT, Cali24 February 2014

Objectives

• Enhance a coordinated suite of biophysical and economic models

• Strengthen capacity and build a community of practice for ex ante impact assessment

• Assess potential returns to a range of possible technologies and investments under alternative global futures

Overview

• Global Futures Phase 1 (2010 – 2013)• Funding from BMGF and CCAFS• IFPRI, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICRISAT, IRRI; ICRAF, ILRI

• Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Phase 2 (2013 – 2016)• Funding from BMGF, CCAFS and PIM• Joined by ICARDA, IITA, IWMI and WorldFish

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)

Modeling climate impacts on agriculture

AgMIP climate scenarios to 2050

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)

The role of agricultural technologies

• Baseline to 2050, including climate change• Linked crop models and

economic models• Assessed 11

technologies for maize, rice and wheat• Impacts on prices,

yields, risk of hungerSource: IFPRI (2014)

7

IMPACT – Una Red de Modulos• Módulos Actuales

• Modelo Económico• Producción de Cultivos• Producción Ganadero• Producción de productos procesados

• Modelos Hídricos• Modelos de Nutrición• Modelo de análisis de beneficio y costo

• Futuros módulos:• Agropecuario• Mejorado Producción ganadero• Módulo de biocombustibles

Producción Demanda y Precios

Producción• Crecimiento exogeno• Precios del productos• Gastos de producción

Prices• Equilibra demanda y

producción

Demanda• Ingresos• Precios• Población

8

Geografía en IMPACT

159 •Países

154 •Cuencas

320 •Unidades de Producción Agraria

10

Producción y Demanda

• 56 cultivos• Producción• Comercio• Consumo

• Demanda desagregadopor país y posiblemente por tipo de consumidor (i.e. urbano-rural, rico-pobre)

Actividades y Productos – La cadena de producción

Actividad Prima• Produce

algun producto

Producto• Se vende en

el Mercado

Actividad Procesador• Demanda

productos • Produce

nuevos productos procesados

Productos procesados• Soybean Oil

(csbol)• Soybean

Meal (csbml)

11

Ag R&D Cycle

Intervention

Problem identification

M&E, review(Ex-post evaluation)

Foresight & ex-ante eval

Priority setting

PolicyRecommendations &

strategies

Outputs, OutcomesImpacts

ClayucaFLAR

Cassava, Beans, Rice,

Forages

Cassava, Beans, Rice

Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT

),( Py

Technologies

Shocks

)( y

)( y

DSSAT, Biophysical

models

IMPACT Model

MulticriteriaAnalysis

DELPHI Process

Priority settingNew technologiesStrategies, policies

Socio-economic model

Dalys, Env Services, Gender

issues, other

Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT

Technologies

Shocks

)( y

)( y

DSSAT, Biophysical

models

IMPACT Model

MulticriteriaAnalysis

DELPHI Process

Priority settingNew technologiesStrategies, policies

Socio-economic model

Dalys, Env Services, Gender

issues, other

∆y, ∆P

• DSSAT: Participated in various workshops and meetings (including AgMip)

• Set up of a working High Performance Cluster for crop modeling

• Data collection, calibration of cultivars (beans)

• Following the revamping of cassava model

• Data collection: management practices

Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT

Technologies

Shocks

DSSAT, Biophysical

models

IMPACT Model

MulticriteriaAnalysis

DELPHI Process

Priority settingNew technologiesStrategies, policies

Socio-economic model

Dalys, Env Services, Gender

issues, other

∆y, ∆P

• Expert surveys to detect constraints: Cassava, rice

• Future: expert survey for beans, expert consultation for forages

• Multicriteria surveys to stakeholders: Cassava, rice

• Foresight workshops for agriculture in LAC

Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT

Technologies

Shocks

DSSAT, Biophysical

models

IMPACT Model

MulticriteriaAnalysis

DELPHI Process

Priority settingNew technologiesStrategies, policies

Socio-economic model

Dalys, Env Services, Gender

issues, other∆y, ∆P

• minor participation in the elaboration of the new IMPACT

• Run a few models, main ones:• Herbicide tolerant Cassava• Biological control of mealybug

• Subutilized• Future work:

• Analyze new technologies• Model for LAC• Model commodity markets:

Cassva and beans

Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT

Technologies

Shocks

DSSAT, Biophysical

models

IMPACT Model

MulticriteriaAnalysis

DELPHI Process

Priority settingNew technologiesStrategies, policies

Socio-economic model

Dalys, Env Services, Gender

issues, other

∆y, ∆P

• RTB CRP ps project• Set priorities for: rice, beans,

forages• Analyze and keep track of

changes in major trends and drivers for CIAT Commodities / in LAC

• Strategic foresight for main crops: multidisciplinary committees

Opportunities GFSF & CIAT

• Internal:• Priority setting for crop groups: support for R&D agenda• Identifying opportunities and risks• Linking research to impacts: donors

• CGIAR level• Increase communication among centers and CRPs• Help setting credible IDOs & Outcomes

• Policy making• Scenario based global modeling: support decision making• Work with NARs in strategic planning