toward more resilient futures: putting strategic foresight into practice may 13, 2013 david kaufman...
TRANSCRIPT
Toward More Resilient Futures: Putting Strategic Foresight Into Practice
May 13, 2013
David KaufmanAssociate Administrator for Policy, Program Analysis, and International Affairs
Introduction: A World in Transition
ECONOMY
TECHNOLOGY SECURITY
ENVIRONMENT
• Increasing complexity and decreasing predictability
• Continued resource constraints
• Increasing work to address acute and chronic issues
• How we assess and understand risk must change (forward looking and dynamic, not retrospective)
Changing Role of the Individual
Universal Access to/use of Information
Technical Developmentand Dependency
U.S. Demographic Shifts
Government Budgets
Global Interdependencies Evolving
Terrorist Threat
Critical Infrastructure
Strategic Drivers of Change
Climate Change
Implications for Emergency Management
• The composition and character of community and individual vulnerability will likely change over time
• The means and methods for delivering emergency and disaster services will shift
• Trust – between the government and the public – must be strengthened
• New tools and opportunities will become available
The Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI)
• Understand the factors driving change that will impact emergency and disaster management over a 20-year horizon
• Develop a shared sense of direction and urgency in the emergency management community that enables us to drive to action
• Collectively prepare for the future across multi-sectors
• Plan for and take action to meet evolving needs
The SFI Approach
IDENTIFYDRAFT
DRIVERS
Accelerator/Derailer
Workshops
ExpertOutreach
TopicalWebinars/Concalls
InitialResearch
Scoping Workshop
DRI
VERS
DEF
INED
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING SCENARIO PLANNING ADVANCING & SUSTAINING FORESIGHT
SFIScenario
Workshop
IDStrategic
Needs
EvaluateExisting
Scenarios
CustomizeScenarios
STRA
TEG
IC N
EED
SD
EFIN
ED
AlignStrategies
Expand andShare
Research
EngageStakeholders
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
The SFI Approach: Phase 1
IDENTIFYDRAFT
DRIVERS
Accelerator/Derailer
Workshops
ExpertOutreach
TopicalWebinars/Concalls
InitialResearch
Scoping Workshop
DRI
VERS
DEF
INED
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING SCENARIO PLANNING ADVANCING & SUSTAINING FORESIGHT
SFIScenario
Workshop
IDStrategic
Needs
EvaluateExisting
Scenarios
CustomizeScenarios
STRA
TEG
IC N
EED
SD
EFIN
ED
AlignStrategies
Expand andShare
Research
EngageStakeholders
The SFI Approach: Phase 2
IDENTIFYDRAFT
DRIVERS
Accelerator/Derailer
Workshops
ExpertOutreach
TopicalWebinars/Concalls
InitialResearch
Scoping Workshop
DRI
VERS
DEF
INED
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING SCENARIO PLANNING ADVANCING & SUSTAINING FORESIGHT
SFIScenario
Workshop
IDStrategic
Needs
EvaluateExisting
Scenarios
CustomizeScenarios
STRA
TEG
IC N
EED
SD
EFIN
ED
AlignStrategies
Expand andShare
Research
EngageStakeholders
Scenario Planning
Predictive Planning:
Scenario Planning:
Today
“Most Likely” Future Master Plan
Strategic Needs & Actions
Today
Multiple Futures
.Copyright 2011 The Futures Strategy Group, LLC
SFI 15 Strategic Needs
1. Develop EM capabilities to address population and migratory shifts
2. Practice omni-directional knowledge sharing
3. Infuse EM practices and skills across the entire educational experience
4. Build a shared future vision with plans and contingencies
5. Leverage volunteer capabilities across all EM phases
Essential Capabilities
SFI 15 Strategic Needs
6. Adopt new risk management tools to manage complex event consequences
7. Employ alternative surge models
8. Promote EM inter-operability across all boundaries
9. Plan around share interests
10. Remediate vulnerabilities across EM supply chains and critical infrastructure
Innovative Models & Tools
SFI 15 Strategic Needs
11. Influence development of emerging technologies
12. Empower individuals and communities to play a greater role throughout all phases of disasters
13. Proactively engage business in all EM phases, especially policy development
14. Intensify disaster-response collaboration with Canada and Mexico
15. Enable access to military capabilities to augment capacity as needed
Dynamic Partnerships
The SFI Approach: Phase 3
IDENTIFYDRAFT
DRIVERS
Accelerator/Derailer
Workshops
ExpertOutreach
TopicalWebinars/Concalls
InitialResearch
Scoping Workshop
DRI
VERS
DEF
INED
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING SCENARIO PLANNING ADVANCING & SUSTAINING FORESIGHT
SFIScenario
Workshop
IDStrategic
Needs
EvaluateExisting
Scenarios
CustomizeScenarios
STRA
TEG
IC N
EED
SD
EFIN
ED
AlignStrategies
Expand andShare
Research
EngageStakeholders
WEBINARS PRESENTATIONS EXERCISES NEWSLETTERS
Putting Foresight Into
Practice
2012
2013
Putting Foresight Into Practice
• An analysis of emerging trends and what they may signal for the U.S. and disaster resilience over the coming years
• 4 vignettes, each containing a pair of dueling storylines, and offering a lens to consider many potential futures
Feature 1: Sustaining Foresight
ECONOMY
TECHNOLOGY
SECURITY
ENVIRONMENT
Spotlights efforts from the Whole Community that exemplify how individuals, organizations, and governments can develop capabilities, tools, and partnerships to meet our strategic needs.
Feature 2: Future Needs in Practice
Aims to inspire our community into action by profiling innovators working to solve big, complex issues.
Feature 3: Big Problems. Strong Leaders. Bold Action.
• The spirit of this feature recognizes that government-centric efforts cannot fully meet the challenges posed by disasters.
• The 7 innovators are only a small, but motivating sample.
• Their stories capture the extraordinary contributions of individuals working to improve government collaboration, develop better business services, or serve the unique needs of their communities.
Putting Foresight into Practice
4 strategic goals for 2013 and beyond:
1. Advance FEMA and the Whole Community’s knowledge of future trends and drivers of change
2. Actively use and promote foresight in FEMA planning and decision-making processes
3. Promote state, local, tribal, and territorial applications of foresight
4. Provide tools to facilitate the use of foresight across the Whole Community
• How do you envision our future landscape?
• How will these changes impact your operating environment?
• How can we position ourselves for success, now and in the future?
• What are some examples you’ve seen of foresight put into practice?
The Future Strategic Environment
Backup Slides