expertise in technology and economic
Post on 19-Dec-2015
216 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
EXPERTISE IN TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC
www.tbrc.fi
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
Time horizon of knowledge developing new product concepts
Not proven
Well understood
Available
Technology uncertainty
Proven
Defining concept
development
Solving concept development
>10 years 5-10 years 2-5 years 1-2 years
Required availability
Visioning concept
development
Emerging concept
development
(Tutti/Masina tutkimusprojekti, Leppimäki et al., 2004)
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
Dynamic Business Environment
As Mintzberg (1978) has stated that innovations and strategies can develop with or without organizational intent.
Strategic intent Planned strategy
Realized
strategy
Emerging
strategy
Emerging
strategy
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
The Competence Gap
Vision
Position of the Company
What business are we in? Strategy
Compe
tenc
e Gap
(Rönkkö, 2005)
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
Introduction of Scenarios
Future research methods can be divided into quantitative / qualitative and exploratory / normative techniques.
Scenario method is seen as a qualitative and exploratory technique, but the scenarios can be either explorative or normative.
Scenario method is traditionally considered as a strategy formation tool
Scenarios are logical and plausible descriptions about the future development
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
Scenario approach
The fundamental idea:
• To provide a structured way to create a dynamic interaction between the environment and the organization
Scenarios enables:
• Management of collaborative networking process
• Analysis the past and present environment
• Strategic conversation
• To challenge the present assumptions and mental maps
• Determination of the determinants of the future “driving forces”
• Recognition and evaluation of future opportunities
• Creation of new knowledge
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
Purpose of scenarios
Van der Heijden 2004
To understand the environment
to reveal important question/issues needed to research
To create superior strategy
No learning and difficult to sustain success
To understand the ongoing changing environment
To create quality to strategic conversation
Adaptive learning
Continuous enhancing of competitive performance motivates to engage in new actions
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
Scenario process
Phase 1. Phase 2. Phase 4. Phase 3.
Environmental Environmental analysisanalysis
Weak signals
(mega)trends
Business environment (PESTE analysis)
Stakeholders
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Sc
ena
rio
pro
ces
sS
cen
ari
o p
roc
ess
VisionVision
Str
ate
gy
fo
rma
tio
nS
tra
teg
y f
orm
ati
on
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
Future anticipation process
PE
ST
E
Delphi-analysis
Technologyroadmap
INFORMATION COLLECTION
INFORMATION PROCESSING
Futures table
STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
time
businesspotential
Scenario working
Futures table
SELECTING/ EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
Strategy working
Alternative courcesof action
time
businesspotential
Time-seriesanalysis
Trend analysis
Cross-impactanalysis
PE
ST
E
PE
ST
E
Delphi-analysis
Technologyroadmap
INFORMATION COLLECTION
INFORMATION PROCESSING
Futures table
STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
time
businesspotential
time
businesspotential
time
businesspotential
Scenario working
Futures table
SELECTING/ EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
Strategy working
Alternative courcesof action
time
businesspotential
Time-seriesanalysis
Trend analysis
Cross-impactanalysis
(Leppimäki et al. 2003)
Klikkaa kuvaa Tutu-taul.
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
SCENARIO PROCESS
Scenario approaches can be classified into 1. intuitive (Schwartz, Wack, SRI)
2. heuristic (van der Heijden, Schoemaker, Meristö)
3. statistic models (Godet).
Analysis of gathered knowledge and
knowledge creation (externalization)
Implementation of scenarios and learning
(internalization)
Creation of scenarios (combination of
knowledge)
Definition of the focus of business environment
(socialization)
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
Scenario approaches
Schwartz van der Heijden Schoemaker Masini Godet
1. Exploration of a strategic issue
1. Structuring of the scenario process
1. Framing the scope 1. Description of the process
1. Delimitation of the context
2. Identification of actors & stakeholders
2. Delimitation of the context
2. Identification of the key variables
2. Identification of external key forces
2. Exploring the context of the issue
3. Exploring the predetermined elements
3. Identification of the variables
3. Analysis of past trends and actors
3. Exploring the past trends
4. Identification of Uncertainties
4. Identification of the key variables
4. Analysis of the interaction of actors and the environment
4. Evaluation of the environmental forces
5. Construction of initial scenarios
5. Identification of the uncertainties
5. Creation of the logic of initial scenarios
3. Developing the scenarios
6. Assessment the initial scenarios
6. Identification of actors
5. Creation of the environmental scenarios
6. Creation of final scenarios
4. Stakeholder analysis 7. Creation of the final learning scenarios
7. Formulation of hypothetical questions
6. Building the final scenarios
5. System check, evaluation
8. Evaluation of the stakeholders
8. Building the scenarios
7. Implications for the decision making
8. Follow-up research
6. Action planning 9. Action planning
10. Reassessment of the scenarios and decision making
9. Implementation and action planning
7. Identification of strategic options
8. Action planning
April 4, 2006
Jukka BergmanTBRC
References
Godet, M. (2000): The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and Pitfalls, Technological forecasting and social change, 65, 3-22.
Godet, M. & Roubelat, F. (1996): Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios, Long Rang Planning, 29, 2, 164-171.
Jääskö & Keinonen (Eds.) (2004): Tuotekonseptointi, Teknologiainfo, Teknova Oy. Isbn: 951-817-832-1
Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C., McGee, V.E. (1983). Forecasting: Methods and applications. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1991): When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration, Journal of forecasting, 10, 549-564.
Schwartz, P. (1996): The Art of the Long View - Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World Doubleday Dell publishing Inc., New York, USA.
van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R. , George, B., Cairns, G. & Wright, G. (2002): The Sixth Sense - Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chinchester, UK.
Wack, P. (1985a): Scenarios uncharted waters ahead, Harvard Business Review, Sept-Oct, 73-89.
Wack, P. (1985b): Scenarios: shooting the rapids, Harvard Business Review, Nov-Dec, 139-150.
top related