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EVALUATING DIFFERENT STRATEGIES FOR DISTRIBUTING LIMITED FMD VACCINE DURING AN FMD OUTBREAK

E P I D E M I O LO G I C A N D E C O N O M I C M O D E L I N G T E A MA M Y D E LG A D O, M S D V M P H DD I R E C TO R , M O N I TO R I N G A N D M O D E L I N GC E A H : V S : A P H I S : U S DA

O C TO B E R 1 4 , 2 0 1 7

2

National Model for FMD Spread and Control

Commercial bisonDairy/beef cattleGoatsSheepSwine

3

National Model for FMD Spread and Control

1.8 million farms900+ livestock markets

4

National Model for FMD Spread and Control

Livestock movementsOther farm connections(indirect contacts)Disease spread defined by species and/or production type

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Integrated Control Strategies

Surveillance:PassiveActiveTracing

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Integrated Control Strategies

Movement restrictionsDepopulationVaccination

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What are the optimal strategies for distributing limited FMD vaccine during an outbreak?

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Mix of production types and animal/farm densities

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Swine 2nd doses

Day 1

Doses 0 300,000

7

550,000per week

3

0

21 47 98

100,000 animals/day

78,571 animals/day

< 78,571 animals/dayContinuous vaccine

production

First Detection

550,000per week

2.5 Million Doses Used

14 weeks

Vaccine Doses and Rate of Vaccination

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Containment v. protective vaccination zones Ring vaccination v. epidemiological risk areaBlanket v. percent coverage within a zone Species/production type targeted

Vaccination Strategy

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High density beef cattle

Low density production types

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High density dairy cattleModerate density production types

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High density swineHigh density production types

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Scenarios:

1. No vaccination (baseline)

2. Vaccination within a 10km ring around detected farms

3. Vaccination within a protective vaccine ring

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Beef RegionN

um

be

r o

f A

nim

als

(mill

ion

s)

Nu

mb

er

of

Farm

s

16

Dairy RegionN

um

be

r o

f A

nim

als

(mill

ion

s)

Nu

mb

er

of

Farm

s

17

Swine RegionN

um

be

r o

f A

nim

als

(mill

ion

s)

Nu

mb

er

of

Farm

s

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Example: blanketed vaccination, 80km ring

200 mi

Questions:1. What are the daily vaccination

capacities by species/production type? How many vaccination teams per state?

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Questions:1. What are the daily vaccination

capacities by species/production type? How many vaccination teams per state?

2. How do vaccination priorities change when using containment v. protective vaccination zones?

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Questions:1. What are the daily vaccination

capacities by species/production type? How many vaccination teams per state?

2. How do vaccination priorities change when using containment v. protective vaccination zones

3. What species, production types, and/or animal types should be targeted for vaccination for each state?

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Questions:1. What are the daily vaccination

capacities by species/production type? How many vaccination teams per state?

2. How do vaccination priorities change when using containment v. protective vaccination zones

3. What species, production types, and/or animal types should be targeted for vaccination for each state?

4. How best to share our outputs?

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Economic Impacts of FMD Vaccination Presentation◦ Monday, October 16th in the FED Committee

◦ Presented by: Dr. Stephanie Shwiff, USDA APHIS NWRC

Epidemiologic and Economic Modeling TeamCenter for Epidemiology and Animal HealthU.S. Department of AgricultureAnimal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceVeterinary Services

Amy Delgado, MS DVM PhDDirector, Monitoring and ModelingAmy.H.Delgado@aphis.usda.gov