etg energietechnische gesellschaft im vde · 2011. 10. 14. · quelle: vde/etg, effizienz- und...
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1TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
ETGEnergietechnische Gesellschaft im VDE
2TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
ETGEnergietechnische Gesellschaft im VDE
A Time of Change in the German Power System
Prof. Dr.- Ing. Wolfgang Schröppel
3TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Content
1. Introduction2. Development of the power consumption3. Reserves and resources4. Challenge of efficiency5. Political demand6. Future energy mix and the consequences7. Summary
4TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
The Global Economic Symposium, a worldwide union of leading experts from economy, politics and science, sees the following challenges for mankind with the indicated priorities:
1. Control of the climate change and the energy crisis
2. Improvement of the multilateral cooperation
3. The growth of the world population and the shortage of the resources
4. Improvement of education
5. fight against poverty
The urgent challenges of mankind
Quelle: GES
5TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Climate: Warming of earth since 1850
6TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Within 15 years:
the oil price increased by 10% / year,
the general rate of price increases was only 1,5% / year
and there was only in 2009 in significant reduction
Energy: Develoment of price of crude oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Entwicklung des Rohölpreis in $/Barrel
7TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Content
1. Introduction2. Power consumption3. Reserves and resources4. Challenge of efficiency5. Political demand6. Future energy mix and the consequences7. Summary
8TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Worldwide energy demand
While the energy demand is stagnating in the OECD, it increases dramatically in all other regions
9TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Energy consumption per capita
10TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Development of net power demand in Germany in TWh
Quelle: BMWi Energiedaten
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0,86 %/a0 %/a
11TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Power consumption in Germany in 2009 and 2010 in TWh
Quelle: BMWi Energiedaten
0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0
Industrie
Haushalt
Gewerbe/Handel/Dienstl.
Verkehr
Netzverluste
Pumpstromverbrauch
Eigenverbrauch
2010 2009
12TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Power production in Germany in 2009 and 2010 in TWh
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 120,0 140,0 160,0
Steinkohle
Braunkohle
Kernkraft
Gas
Öl
Erneuerbare
Sonstiges2010 2009
Quelle: BMWi Energiedaten
13TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Climate: Possible scenarios
Szenarios of UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
Quelle: UN IPCC
14TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
The warming of this century will be
strongest on land and in the northern hemispheres
lowest over the southern oceans and in part over the north Atlantic
Climate: Development of the earth surface temperature
Quelle: UN IPCC
15TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Content
1. Introduction2. Power consumption3. Reserves and resources4. Challenge of efficiency5. Political demand6. Future energy mix and the consequences7. Summary
16TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Reserves and resources Hard coal in Gt
Quelle: BGR (2009)
17TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Reserves and resources Crude oil in Gt
Quelle: BGR (2009)
18TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Reserves and resources Gas in Tm3
Quelle: BGR (2009)
19TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Content
1. Introduction2. Power consumption3. Reserves and resources4. Challenge of efficiency5. Political demand6. Future energy mix and the consequences7. Summary
20TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Energy efficiency: savings of power consumption
On the other hand we see also increasing demand by:
Increase of volume i.e. several instead of one PC / user
new applications i.e. heat pumps, e-cars
technology change i.e. electric motors instead of gas motors
TWh 2004 2004→2015 2015 2004→2025 2025Industrie 214 -7% 199 -19% 172Verkehr 16 -6% 15 -11% 15Haushalt 140 -12% 124 -25% 105GHD 136 -12% 120 -21% 107Strom insgesamt 506 -10% 457 -21% 399
Quelle: VDE/ETG, Effizienz- und Einsparpotenziale elektrischer Energie in Deutschland
On the basis of today knowledge we can foresee the following power savings by improving the efficiency of products and processes in the specified periods (VDE study, 2007) :
21TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Energy efficiency: Examples for „good“ and „not so good“ measures
To support the German car industry the governmentgave bonus payments for scraping old cars:
€ 2.500 bonus per car€ 5.000.000.000 total subsidy volumei.e. 2.000.000 cars
The measure´s effect was quick but the measure was not sustainable.
It would have been better to scrap old appliances like washing machines, fridges, freezers and invest in new, high efficient appliances of efficiency class A+ or A++. For example:
€ 200 bonus for a new appliance € 5.000.000.000 total subsidy volumei.e. 25.000.000 appliances
The measure´s effect would have been quick and it would have been sustainable.
exchange > 10 y:-8,4 TWh/a
Polo Verbrauch Emissionenl/100km g/km
1994 6,4 1492009 5,5 128
Veränd. ‐14,1%
Quelle: ZVEI; eigene Berechnungen
22TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Content
1. Introduction2. Power consumption3. Reserves and resources4. Challenge of efficiency5. Political demand6. Future energy mix and the consequences7. Summary
23TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Exit of nuclear power
Moratorium 14.3.20112011 -8,4 GW Brunsbüttel, Unterweser, Biblis A,
Biblis B, Isar 1, Neckarwestheim1, Philippsburg 1, Krümel
2015 -1,3 GW Grafenrheinfeld2017 -1,3 GW Gundremmingen B2019 -1 5 GW Philippsburg 22021 -4,3 GW Grohnde,Gundremmingen C,Brokdorf2022 -4,3 GW Isar 2, Emsland, Neckarwestheim 2
Total -21,1 GW of 75 GW needed at peak load time
24TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Further demands
Reduction of green gas emissions compared to 1990
2020 -40%2030 -55%2040 -70%2050 -80%-95%
Power generation
2020 35% from renewables2020 -10% compared to 2010
25TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Content
1. Introduction2. Power consumption3. Reserves and resources4. Challenge of efficiency5. Political demand6. Future energy mix and the consequences7. Summary
26TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Generation in TWh
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
2010 2020 2030
GeothermalPVBiomassWindWaterNuclearGarbageOilGas LigniteHard coal
27TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Installed power in GW
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
2010 2020 2030
GeothermalPVBiomassWindWaterNuclearGarbageOilGas LigniteHard coal
28TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Consumption in TWh
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
2010 2020 2030
Transport
Service a.o.
Residential
Industry
Net losses
Pump storage
utility consumption
29TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Investment costs in Bill. €
12,7 0,0 10,6 0,0
44,8
1,45,3
0,0
8,0
80,4
31,327,6
175,6
Investment costs in new power plants until 2030
Hard coal
Lignite
Gas Oil
Garbage Nuclear
Water Wind on
Wind off Biomass
PV
Total: Bill.€
fossile back up für wind+PV: Bill.€
397,7
30,3Calculations on price basis 2010
This means an increase of the kWh-Price by ~5 ct/kWh!
Attention:1 Bill.(engl.) =1 Mrd.(germ.)
30TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
CO2 emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2020 2030
Oil
Gas
Lignite
Hard coal
Stand 2003:320 Mio.t CO2
Kyoto-Ziel bis 2012:302 Mio.t CO2
31TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Fluctuating wind power
Source: Alt, FH Aachen
24 12 24 12 24
day3 months
Needed pump storage volume:- existing: 40 GWh/day;- needed: 900 GWh/day if 80% REN
32TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Infrastructure challenges
To erect new power lines is a basic political problem. The residents normally go to court and very often win the law suits. Therefore the idea is born to use existing infrastructure and add the new lines in parallel. Such existing infrastructures can be:
Railway tracksMotorwaysOil-/gas-PipelinesRivers and canalsold power lines
Source: Stromübertragung für den Klimaschutz, VDE-Studie, 2011
33TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Combination of motorways and overhead power lines or cable systems
Source: Stromübertragung für den Klimaschutz, VDE-Studie, 2011
34TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Super-Grid (overlay network)
Existing motorways
Overlay to the existing network
Schematic network
Source: Stromübertragung für den Klimaschutz, VDE-Studie, 2011
35TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Source: Stromübertragung für den Klimaschutz, VDE-Studie, 2011
Network technologies – Comparison of transmission costs
36TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Content
1. Introduction2. Power consumption3. Reserves and resources4. Challenge of efficiency5. Political demand6. Future energy mix and the consequences7. Summary
37TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden
Summary
- The „Energiewende“ will challenge the German economy and the politics dramatically.
- It will basically not be a technical problem it will be an extreme challenge with respect to costs and public acceptance when it comes down to the residents (i.e. overhead power lines, coal power plants)
- The integration of a very big share of renewable energies (80-95 % until 2050) requires suitable backup systems.
- Besides big energy storages , which we do not have today, we have to continue to use thermal power plants for the backup of not available renewable energy power (e.g. at wintertime with no wind and sunshine).
- We should not tell the people that the „Energiewende“ does not cost much.
- If we want to succeed we have to fulfill a “Century Task”.
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