etg energietechnische gesellschaft im vde · 2011. 10. 14. · quelle: vde/etg, effizienz- und...

1TU Dresden, Industriepartner Symposium, 06.10.2011, Dresden

ETGEnergietechnische Gesellschaft im VDE


ETGEnergietechnische Gesellschaft im VDE

A Time of Change in the German Power System

Prof. Dr.- Ing. Wolfgang Schröppel


Content

1. Introduction2. Development of the power consumption3. Reserves and resources4. Challenge of efficiency5. Political demand6. Future energy mix and the consequences7. Summary


The Global Economic Symposium, a worldwide union of leading experts from economy, politics and science, sees the following challenges for mankind with the indicated priorities:

1. Control of the climate change and the energy crisis

2. Improvement of the multilateral cooperation

3. The growth of the world population and the shortage of the resources

4. Improvement of education

5. fight against poverty

The urgent challenges of mankind

Quelle: GES


Climate: Warming of earth since 1850


Within 15 years:

the oil price increased by 10% / year,

the general rate of price increases was only 1,5% / year

and there was only in 2009 in significant reduction

Energy: Develoment of price of crude oil

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Entwicklung des Rohölpreis in $/Barrel


Content

1. Introduction2. Power consumption3. Reserves and resources4. Challenge of efficiency5. Political demand6. Future energy mix and the consequences7. Summary


Worldwide energy demand

While the energy demand is stagnating in the OECD, it increases dramatically in all other regions


Energy consumption per capita


Development of net power demand in Germany in TWh

Quelle: BMWi Energiedaten

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0,86 %/a0 %/a


Power consumption in Germany in 2009 and 2010 in TWh


0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0

Industrie

Haushalt

Gewerbe/Handel/Dienstl.

Verkehr

Netzverluste

Pumpstromverbrauch

Eigenverbrauch

2010 2009


Power production in Germany in 2009 and 2010 in TWh

0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 120,0 140,0 160,0

Steinkohle

Braunkohle

Kernkraft

Gas

Öl

Erneuerbare

Sonstiges2010 2009



Climate: Possible scenarios

Szenarios of UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

Quelle: UN IPCC


The warming of this century will be

strongest on land and in the northern hemispheres

lowest over the southern oceans and in part over the north Atlantic

Climate: Development of the earth surface temperature

Quelle: UN IPCC


Content



Reserves and resources Hard coal in Gt

Quelle: BGR (2009)


Reserves and resources Crude oil in Gt

Quelle: BGR (2009)


Reserves and resources Gas in Tm3

Quelle: BGR (2009)


Content



Energy efficiency: savings of power consumption

On the other hand we see also increasing demand by:

Increase of volume i.e. several instead of one PC / user

new applications i.e. heat pumps, e-cars

technology change i.e. electric motors instead of gas motors

TWh 2004 2004→2015 2015 2004→2025 2025Industrie 214 -7% 199 -19% 172Verkehr 16 -6% 15 -11% 15Haushalt 140 -12% 124 -25% 105GHD 136 -12% 120 -21% 107Strom insgesamt 506 -10% 457 -21% 399

Quelle: VDE/ETG, Effizienz- und Einsparpotenziale elektrischer Energie in Deutschland

On the basis of today knowledge we can foresee the following power savings by improving the efficiency of products and processes in the specified periods (VDE study, 2007) :


Energy efficiency: Examples for „good“ and „not so good“ measures

To support the German car industry the governmentgave bonus payments for scraping old cars:

€ 2.500 bonus per car€ 5.000.000.000 total subsidy volumei.e. 2.000.000 cars

The measure´s effect was quick but the measure was not sustainable.

It would have been better to scrap old appliances like washing machines, fridges, freezers and invest in new, high efficient appliances of efficiency class A+ or A++. For example:

€ 200 bonus for a new appliance € 5.000.000.000 total subsidy volumei.e. 25.000.000 appliances

The measure´s effect would have been quick and it would have been sustainable.

exchange > 10 y:-8,4 TWh/a

Polo Verbrauch Emissionenl/100km g/km

1994 6,4 1492009 5,5 128

Veränd. ‐14,1%

Quelle: ZVEI; eigene Berechnungen


Content



Exit of nuclear power

Moratorium 14.3.20112011 -8,4 GW Brunsbüttel, Unterweser, Biblis A,

Biblis B, Isar 1, Neckarwestheim1, Philippsburg 1, Krümel

2015 -1,3 GW Grafenrheinfeld2017 -1,3 GW Gundremmingen B2019 -1 5 GW Philippsburg 22021 -4,3 GW Grohnde,Gundremmingen C,Brokdorf2022 -4,3 GW Isar 2, Emsland, Neckarwestheim 2

Total -21,1 GW of 75 GW needed at peak load time


Further demands

Reduction of green gas emissions compared to 1990

2020 -40%2030 -55%2040 -70%2050 -80%-95%

Power generation

2020 35% from renewables2020 -10% compared to 2010


Content



Generation in TWh

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

600,0

700,0

2010 2020 2030

GeothermalPVBiomassWindWaterNuclearGarbageOilGas LigniteHard coal


Installed power in GW

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

2010 2020 2030

GeothermalPVBiomassWindWaterNuclearGarbageOilGas LigniteHard coal


Consumption in TWh

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

600,0

700,0

2010 2020 2030

Transport

Service a.o.

Residential

Industry

Net losses

Pump storage

utility consumption


Investment costs in Bill. €

12,7 0,0 10,6 0,0

44,8

1,45,3

0,0

8,0

80,4

31,327,6

175,6

Investment costs in new power plants until 2030

Hard coal

Lignite

Gas Oil

Garbage Nuclear

Water Wind on

Wind off Biomass

PV

Total: Bill.€

fossile back up für wind+PV: Bill.€

397,7

30,3Calculations on price basis 2010

This means an increase of the kWh-Price by ~5 ct/kWh!

Attention:1 Bill.(engl.) =1 Mrd.(germ.)


CO2 emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2020 2030

Oil

Gas

Lignite

Hard coal

Stand 2003:320 Mio.t CO2

Kyoto-Ziel bis 2012:302 Mio.t CO2


Fluctuating wind power

Source: Alt, FH Aachen

24 12 24 12 24

day3 months

Needed pump storage volume:- existing: 40 GWh/day;- needed: 900 GWh/day if 80% REN


Infrastructure challenges

To erect new power lines is a basic political problem. The residents normally go to court and very often win the law suits. Therefore the idea is born to use existing infrastructure and add the new lines in parallel. Such existing infrastructures can be:

Railway tracksMotorwaysOil-/gas-PipelinesRivers and canalsold power lines

Source: Stromübertragung für den Klimaschutz, VDE-Studie, 2011


Combination of motorways and overhead power lines or cable systems



Super-Grid (overlay network)

Existing motorways

Overlay to the existing network

Schematic network




Network technologies – Comparison of transmission costs


Content



Summary

- The „Energiewende“ will challenge the German economy and the politics dramatically.

- It will basically not be a technical problem it will be an extreme challenge with respect to costs and public acceptance when it comes down to the residents (i.e. overhead power lines, coal power plants)

- The integration of a very big share of renewable energies (80-95 % until 2050) requires suitable backup systems.

- Besides big energy storages , which we do not have today, we have to continue to use thermal power plants for the backup of not available renewable energy power (e.g. at wintertime with no wind and sunshine).

- We should not tell the people that the „Energiewende“ does not cost much.

- If we want to succeed we have to fulfill a “Century Task”.

etg energietechnische gesellschaft im vde · 2011. 10. 14. · quelle: vde/etg, effizienz- und...

Documents