e27 unconference 2009 rafer

Market Opportunity, not Magic

Scott Rafer, @E27 Unconference 2009

Losing unique status

Startup Capitals by 2015London + Tel Aviv Beijing + Shanghai

Startup Capitals by 2020?Bangalore

Buenos AiresSingapore

Critical mass

Success builds on founder success

Defining success

Defining two exceptions

Too unlikely

Too little benefitto founders

It’s just math

A few million $ of revenue

A few$ /user/year

Small % penetration in years 1 to 3

Huge audience required

$ * *

$2 * 3% * 50M = $3M

Just for example

Market size matters most

Only China is big enough

English-speaking countriesEurope + Middle East

Latin AmericaSouth Asia

Southeast Asia

*Japan and Korea are different

DVD DRM Regions

Back to Friendster

Capture 1 or 2 regions

Very rough examples to show early scale

$2 * 5% * 200M = $10M

Boring and linear as we like it

$__ * 25% * 200M = $__M

Huge penetration, but multiplying by zero?

$2 * 2% * 200M = $8M

Scaling from Slovenia

$3 * 5% * 200M = $15M

Nailed the model & acquired fast

Copy the German cloners!

Simplicity is all

Be late or be boring

Directories

Customer Lists

Analytics

Assemble and Sell Data

Happy to help as I have time,@rafer