critical thinking for engineers and managers
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Cr i t i c a l T h i n k i n g For Eng ineers & Managers
P e t e r C o c h r a n ecochrane.org.uk
ca-global.biz
Beyond the linear and simple
May 2017
our formal edu cat i onI s a l l about the known the we l l under s tood
“What we can mode l and charac te r i se fo rms the bedrock o f our mos t bas i c under s tand ings founded on the s t ronges t o f s c i en t i f i c p r inc ipa l s - t r i ed & te s ted re su l t s ove r m i l l enn ia”
I t i s the best formula our spec ies has der ived - and respons ib le for
a l l human progress - a l l o ther routes lead to be l ie f sys tems - w i t chc ra f t and genera l i gnorance
“Whi l s t i t i s qu i te acceptab le for the mathemat ic ians , phys ic i s t s (et a l ) to dec lare that a prob lem cannot be so lved -
we ENGINEERS en joy no such luxury - we a lways have to ge t an answer”
a u n i v e r s e o f t h e u n k n ow nHow much does our formal educat ion prepare us for th is ?
“As a young student coming into i ndus t r y I t hough t I knew and understood a lot and I was wel l prepared to tackle anything”
“I quickly real ised that this was not the case and my real education was just about to start - and I am st i l l a student”
Where we are educated What we understand wel l
Where we can solve problems A mostly l inear & wel l behaved space
What we know we know What we know we don’t know What we don’t know we don’t know
What we don’t know
What we knowUnknown ??? =
N o n l i n e a r u n i v e r s eWe have no genera l l y app l i cab le so lu t i ons
Our mathemat ics i s l imi ted to ‘Order 5 ’ a t best Our v i sua l i sa t ion on ly extends to ~ 4 d imens ions Our s imul taneous var iab le t rack ing i s genera l l y <7
Our l inear prob lem sets are most ly bounded and tr iv ia l Our non- l inear prob lem sets most ly unbounded & complex Our s imul taneous var iab le t rack ing capab i l i ty i s genera l l y <7
Sheer comput ing power and mode l l ing dominate Po int so lut ions abound and we have to avo id misuse The non- l inear domain demands new approaches / th ink ing
t h e e n g i n e e r i n g t o o l b o xFinding workable solutions can be real ly chal lenging
- Does a solution already exist? - Has anyone else tackled the problem before? - Do scientif ic/engineering papers report similar problem sets - Apply basic analysis exploiting results of paper/people search - Apply advanced analysis/modell ing on the basis of the previous step
I f none of the above works, then:
- Ask - what might a reasonable solution set be? - Apply iteration starting from a best estimate/guess - Conduct detai led experiments to gather data points - Iterate toward a workable solution
d e c i s i o n T I M EFail fast and adapt even faster
In the face of incomplete data and/or information - and facing a big d e c i s i o n d e a d l i n e - m a k e a decision and adapt rapidly to the outcome… ie best guess followed by iterations..
“ E v o l u t i o n f a v o u r s t h e m o s t adaptable and not the strongest or the smartest”
s i m p l e s y s t e m sGenerally within the grasp of a single mind
α
Output ≈ Input (Energy)
Directly related/predictable
Can be conceived, designed and (sometimes) built by a single person
COMPL i cated systemsGenerally beyond the grasp of a single mind
Output ≈ Input (Energy)
Directly related/predictable
Might be conceived by a single person, but (nearly always) designed and built by a team
C O M P L E X s y s t e m sGenerally demands far more than human minds
Output ≈ Input (Energy or State)
Not directly related/predictable
Individual components may be simple, linear, well behaved, conceived, designed and (sometimes) built by a single person, BUT the sum of the parts can and exhibit unexpected and unpredictable behaviours
Medical conditions Teleco NetworksWeather systemsFinancial systemsMobile networksPolitical systemsMobile networksPower gridsInternetConflictWarfareIoT
BMODStrokesMissilesRocketsFloodingTsunamisLandslidesEarthquakes Crime wavesF1 racing cars Fighter aircraft++++++
No top down design
Impossible to specify
Impossible to design
Difficult to model
Easy/Hard to realise
Easy/Hard to control
Easy/Hard to operate
Unpredictable
Evolves + Adaps
Always Changing
Unstable/Stable
Emergent behaviours
Beyond human grasp and abilities
Established wisdoms do not apply
Mathematics no longer works
No general laws
C O M P L E X i t yGoverns the universe and all life
Only ever Evolves/Grows/Builds
from small to big
simple to complex
And NEVER the converse
s p r e a d M o d eBiological & man made commonality
Virus Meme Desease Malware
AXIOM...still not understood by many...
Taking an interest in every system known to mankind pays dividends in providing us with insights and challenging concepts and occasionally , really useful results...
..and we no longer design, deploy and operate our systems in isolation...we live in a world of natural and unnatural systems... evolved and designed...
...and the way they connect coexist and interact is important especially when life dependency and mission critical issues are at stake !
Only we design & optimise - evolution rests at good enough
“We often appear use vastly complex solutions to achieve incredibly simple outcomes…whilst Mother Nature mostly seems to do the converse”
B I G D i f f e r e n c e s
“Mother Nature cannot do what we do, but then she is still confounding us”
Only goes for ‘good enough’ and optimises nothing
She conceals her underlying complexity at every level of her constructs and activity...
M o t h e r N a t u r e
Her systems are resilient or they rapidly die out..
The over optimisation of
companies and organisations
in a fast evolving field
leads to their certain demise
Defining ‘good enough’ is not always trivial and is generally the biggest challenge !
~80% of the need satisfied by ~20% of the effort….and then often destroyed/devalued by specification creep….
P e r f e c t i o nThe enemy of good enough
Just because we can add something extra does not mean we should….we have to think in terms of the value to be realised…
Analogue dominant
Digital spreading fast
Hybrid Analogue//Digital ubiquitous
What we know advancing rapidly
Our understanding mathematically limited
Made by mankind we all die without them
Made by machine we all die without them
Our species survival depends upon good systems
Our planets survival depends upon good systems
Machine intelligence overtaking us in many areas
Symbiosis necessary man machine partnerships
Challenges formidable but interesting
G e n e r a l i t i e sThe technology/engineering status quo
Stored information growth
1986 I can’t draw a
dot small
enough!!
.1996
0.001ZB
2006
0.13ZB
2016
13ZB
Impossible to read everything professional for >50 years
ZetaByte = 1021 ExaB = 1018 PetaB = 1015 TeraB = 1012
Prognosis: IoT small data distributed storage may exceed the
internet
>20M texts available<3M selected for analysisArgument abstracted pro - con
No human re source can do th i s !
THE BOXIn, out, or new ?
You can think
inside the box
OR You can create
an entirely
new box !
You can think
outside the box
DIVERSITYMostly essential
Capable people of differing ethnics groups; social, education industry experiences; with a wide
range of discipline differences and diverse modes of thinking
Proven AI engines, modelling and visualisation tools are useful
augmentations to help/overcome the limitations of human thinking
It is never too late to stop everything, abandon a given path
and start again
Search out and identify all those who may be able to help you and
form a (real/virtual) team
STATUS QUOBreaking new ground
“If it your problem were simple, someone would have solved it a
long time ago”
“Be prepared to consider and employ the radical, the new,
and even the crazy”
PENUMBRA/ThoughtsYour chance to ask questions and discuss
cochrane.org.uk ca-global.biz
For more presentations, papers and videos on this topic GOTO: www.cochrane.org.uk
May 2017
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