cost of fire: a design tool methodology · 2012-03-19 · introduction! 451 fire deaths, 12,200...

Cost of Fire: A Design Tool MethodologyIFE Heritage Seminar

13th  March  2012

Chris SalterStephen Emmitt

Dino BouchlaghemProf. Ramachandran

Civil & Building EngineeringLoughborough University

Introduction

§ 451 fire deaths, 12,200 injuries in 2008§ Department for Communities & Local Government (2010), 'Fire Statistics, United

Kingdom 2008’, Department for Communities and Local Government.

§ Fires cost the UK economy £8.3 billion in 2008§ Communities and Local Government. (2011), The Economic Cost of Fire: Estimates for

2008, DCLG Publications.

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Fire Fatalities in the UK 1998-2008

Taken from Fire Statistics 2008, Department of Communities and Local Government

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Cost of Fire Claims

Taken from Association of British Insurers (2009), 'Tackling Fire: A Call For Action’.

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Cost Reductions in Fire

“Fundamentally, cost reduction is the only value we have to make our engineering better.”Torero, 2012

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New Builds

§ Design tool aimed at new builds, not heritage structures

§ Tool could potentially be used in retro fitting but costs would be different

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Work To Date

§ C Salter, N Bouchlaghem (2011), Fire Engineering in the UK : A UK Practitioners View, International Conference on Building Resilience.

§ C Salter, G Ramachandran, N Bouchlaghem (2011), A Cost Benefit Tool for Fire Protection Engineers : An Analysis, 2nd IRMP Conference, Glasgow University.

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Sources of Data

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Alarm Probability

§ Calculated from the FDR 1 results

§ Only 38.4% of records in 2005 had AFD present

§ From the filtered FDR 1 data, probability of alarm activation and raising the alarm is 74.1%

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Does Activation Affect Damage?

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Statistical Tests

§ Mann Whitney Statistical Test§ Data is not normally distributed

§ Proves Alarm Activation does affect final damage

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Probability of Extinction Systems Operating

§ Only 2.8% of fires had an extinction system (2005)

§ Sprinklers most popular extinction system (59.1% of systems)

§ Focus on sprinklers - other groups not large enough for statistical analysis

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Probability of Sprinklers Activating

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Frequency Percent

Activated

Activated - Extinguished Fire

ActivatedActivated - Controlled Fire

Failed

Activated - Failed to Control Fire

Failed

Failed to Activate

82 14.2

115 19.9

24 4.2

357 61.8

Probability of Sprinklers Activating

§ FDR 1 records show 34.08% activation overall

§ Previous studies state sprinklers are 95.6% effective (Rutstein and Cooke, 1983, Vaidogas and Šakėnaitė, 2011)

§ However this figure is when sprinklers are activated, not overall.

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Probability of Sprinklers Activating

§ Only 43% of fires are large enough to activate fires (Rutstein and Cooke, 1983)

§ Ramachandran states that a fire has to be 3m² before a sprinkler activates.

§ However, records show activations over 3m² are 67.8%

§ 16.8% of activations of sprinklers are under 3m²

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Cost Data

§ 4 sources identified for cost data1. Rateable Values2. Average from FPA Database3. BCIS Tool4. Xactimate Software

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Rateable Values

§ Measure of a properties rental value

§ Collected by Valuation Office Agency

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Pros Cons

Split into different counties Underestimate total costs

Freely available and already calculated as £/m²

FPA Database

§ Taken from loss adjustors estimates

§ Only on incidents where a fatality happened or cost was estimated as over £100,000

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Pros Cons

Once calculated, only needs access to FPA data periodically to update costs

Based on estimates

BCIS Tool

§ Database of costs of a new build - Collected by RICS

§ Data submitted from construction companies

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Pros Cons

Already in £/m² Not free data

Very detailed data

Xactimate Software

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Xactimate Software

§ Cost estimation software from Xactware

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Pros Cons

Incredibly detailed cost breakdowns

Aimed at individual buildings, not across a building type

Updated quarterly

Costs

§ Rateable values and Xactimate discarded

§ Tool to use FPA data§ FPA and BCIS data comparison first

§ Examine the two datasets to see how they compare

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FPA/BCIS Comparison

§ FPA - 18 categories§ 18 occupancies

§ BCIS - 8 main categories§ 414 occupancies

§ Merge BCIS occupancies to match FPA occupancies

§ FPA data costs calculated into £/m²

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Costs

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0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

Tota

l Los

s Es

timat

e (£

)

Area Damaged m2

Industrial ProcessingNon Residential -Misc

Food And DrinkRetail

WarehousesEntertainment and Culture

Permenant AgriculturalEducationReligious

Sport

Average Costs

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Occupancy FPA Cost £/m² BCIS Cost £/m²

Industrial Processing 4,775.50 743.79

Non Residential Misc 1,405.16 1,452.21

Food and Drink 1,980.61 1,788.56

Retail 1,941.96 1,017.19

Warehouses 1,662.49 736.13

Entertainment and Culture 1,273.74 1,649.69

Permanent Agriculture 785.82 875.20

Education 1,548.64 1,564.17

Religious 1,742.79 1,696.80

Sport 1,237.01 1,397.56

Average Costs

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Occupancy FPA Cost £/m² BCIS Cost £/m²

Industrial Processing 4,775.50 743.79

Non Residential Misc 1,405.16 1,452.21

Food and Drink 1,980.61 1,788.56

Retail 1,941.96 1,017.19

Warehouses 1,662.49 736.13

Entertainment and Culture 1,273.74 1,649.69

Permanent Agriculture 785.82 875.20

Education 1,548.64 1,564.17

Religious 1,742.79 1,696.80

Sport 1,237.01 1,397.56

Difference here seems to be

significantly different

Statistical Tests

§ T Test performed on the datasets to compare

§ Datasets are the same (to 95% certainty)

§ Either dataset can be used in the tool

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Conclusion

§ Work still to be done

§ Complete methodology to be assembled in the next month

§ PhD to be submitted soon

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Ques%ons?

Contact  DetailsEmail:  C.Salter@lboro.ac.uk

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