climate modeling activity in the mri akio kitoh climate research department meteorological research...
Post on 27-Mar-2015
226 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Modeling Activity in the MRI
Akio Kitoh
Climate Research Department
Meteorological Research Institute
2010.10.19, WGNE26, Tokyo
MRI
Technical Support
JMA WMO, IOC, etc.
MRI’s role
Forecast Research Climate Research
Typhoon Research
Physical Meteorology Research
Atmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Research
Meteorological Satellite and Observation System Research
Seismology and Volcanology Research
Oceanographic Research Geochemical Research
Contribution
Research Programsdisaster mitigation Programs
Reports
etc.
1. Earth System Model (MRI-ESM; MRI-CGCM3)
2. Super-high-resolution Atmospheric Models (AGCM-20km and NHRCM-5km)
2nd Phase (FY1995-1999) 3rd Phase (FY2000-2004) 4th Phase (FY2005-2009)
JMA’s Global Warming Research Project
RCM ( 40km )
Vol 4( 2001 )
Vol 1-3( 2006-2009 )
RCM ( 20km )
Ver 1( 2003 )
CGCM2.0A: T42 L30O: 2°×2.5° L23
Vol 5( 2003 )
Vol 6( 2005 )
Ver 2( 2004 )
Vol 7( 2007 )
Global A-O Coupled Model
CGCM1A: 4°×5° L15O: 2°×2.5° L21
Climate Model Development at MRI
Earth System Model
Global Warming Projection
ReportJapanese Standard Climate Scenario
IPCC2nd Report
1995
CGCM2.3A: T42 L30O: 2°×2.5° L23
3rd Report2001
4th Report2007
CRCM ( 20km ) NHRCM ( 4km )
CGCM3.0A: TL95 L48O: 0.5°×1° L50
CGCM3.1A: TL159 L48O: 0.5°×1° L51
RCM ( 20km )
MASINGAR MRI-CCM
Chemical Transport Model
Regional Climate
Now in the 5th Phase
AR5 2013
OceanOcean
Sea iceSea ice Ocean Biogeochemical Carbon Cycle
Ocean Biogeochemical Carbon Cycle
AtmosphereAtmosphere
Land/VegetationLand/Vegetation
Snow on Ice sheetSnow on Ice sheet RiverRiver
LakeLake
Cloud Microphysics
interaction with aerosols
Cloud Microphysics
interaction with aerosols
MRI Earth System Model
AGCM
OGCM
Land Ecosystem
Carbon Cycle
Land Ecosystem
Carbon Cycle
Coupler ‘Scup’ MRI.COMMRI.COM
GSMUVGSMUV
TL159 (~120km)L48(0.01hPa)
Tripolar1°× 0.5°
Atmos. ChemicalClimate Model
Atmos. ChemicalClimate Model
MRI-CCM2MRI-CCM2
Ozone (Strat. + Tropo.)
Aerosol ChemicalTransport Model
Aerosol ChemicalTransport Model
MASINGARMASINGAR
Sulfate, BC, OC, Dust, Sea-salt
CO2
CO2
MRI-CGCM3MRI-CGCM3
Each component can be coupled with different resolutions
TL95 (~180km)T42 (~280km)
obs model
Surface ozone (ppbv)
2007.05.09 06Z
Tropospheric ozone
Total ozone seasonal change
Ozone: reproducibility and future projectionOzone: reproducibility and future projection
Change in ozone hole area
Ozo
ne h
ole
are
a (
m2 ×
1
0-1
2)
TOMSPRM5
Aerosol optical thicknessAerosol optical thickness
MODIS retrieval: 2001 ~ 2006 mean
Model simulation:2001 ~ 2006 mean
MRI model resolutionsMRI model resolutions
MRI-CGCM2.3(CMIP3: IPCC-AR4)
MRI-CGCM3.1(CMIP5: IPCC-AR5)
MRI-CGCM3.xNext version
AGCMhorizontal resolution
T42 (280km ) TL159 (120km ) TL959 (20km )
AGCMvertical resolution
L30(top: 0.4hPa)
L48(top: 0.01hPa)
L60(top: 0.01hPa)
OGCMhorizontal resolution
2°(0.5)×2.5°Lat-lon
0.5°×1.0°Tripolar
1/8°×1/12° (10km)
Tripolar
OGCMvertical resolution
L23 L51 ?
Schedule of the CMIP5 simulations with the MRI-CGCM3 and MRI-ESM1
1. Earth System Model (MRI-ESM; MRI-CGCM3)
2. Super-high-resolution Atmospheric Models (AGCM-20km and NHRCM-5km)
Needs for high resolution models for adaptation studies
• representation of topography depends on resolution (land-sea distribution, mountain height, snow-rain threshold, …)
• low resolution models often fail to reproduce precipitation systems such as tropical cyclones, stationary front systems and blocking
• high resolution models have better mean climate
JMA Numerical Analysis and Prediction System
20-km mesh AGCM as the highest resolution climate model
← Climate models for IPCC AR4 (2007) →
JMA extended fcst
JMA seasonal fcst
← Climate models for IPCC AR5 (2013) →
Real topography
HighRes for AR5HighRes climate
model
Future change in NH blocking frequency (JJA)
The higher horizontal resolution is required to accurately simulateEuro-Atlantic blocking. The Euro-Atlantic blocking frequency is predicted to show a significant decrease in the future.
20km
120km 180km
60kmMatsueda
and Palmer
CMIP3 models
wet
dry
CMIP3 models project wet (dry) conditions over north (south)Europe. Robust signals from CMIP3 models.
MRI AGCM
Much weaker signals at high resolution
Precipitation change over Europe (JJA)
180km(climate)
20km(NWP)
similar
robust
less blocking
Matsueda and Palmer
Unreliable?
Indian summer monsoon rainfall
20-km modelIMD observation
Orographic rainfall is
successfully reproduced
Rajendran and Kitoh (2008) Current Science
Time-slice experiments: 20km/60km
• JMA : Operational global NWP model from Nov 2007• MRI : Next generation climate model• Resolution: TL959(20km)/TL319(60km) with 60 layers• Time integration: Semi-Lagrangian Scheme (Yoshimura,
2004)• Cumulus convection: Prognostic Arakawa-Schubert• Three time periods
– Present (1979-2003), Near future (2015-2039), Future (2075-2099)
detrended observed SST (1979-2003)
CGCMs C20C experiments (-2000)
1979 2003 2075 2099
linear trend in CGCMs(2075-2099)
CGCMsSRES A1B experiments (2000-2100) ɢT
linear trend in CGCMs
Å{ Å{É¢T ÅÅ
future change in CGCMs
observed SST for AMIP (1979-2003)
present-day climate future climate
([2075-2099]-[1979-2003])
For 60-km model, ensemble runs• Four different SST anomalies• Three I.C. ensembles each
How to prescribe future SSTs
Use CMIP3 multi-model SST changes
near future
end 21c
HWDI 60-km vs 20-km 20-km model
60-km model ensemble
HWDI: heat wave duration
near future
end 21c
R5d 60-km vs 20-km 20-km model
60-km model ensemble
R5d: greatest 5-day total precipitation no significance test for 20-km model
There is model resolution dependency; 20-km model projects larger increase in
RX5D
Heavy precipitation increases even in near-future but not statistically significant; it is
significant almost everywhere in Asia at the end of the 21st
century
Tropical cyclones
It is likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.
There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. [IPCC AR4]
MEXT Kyo-sei Project (FY2002-2006)
and KAKUSHIN Program (FY2007-2011)
using the Earth Simulator by the MRI group
Wind Profile Change ( at max wind speed )
Ver
tical
p le
vel
Distance from center
・ Large increase in strong wind radius at mid level of troposphere
・ Large change of inner-core wind velocity
Sample Num=1035 Sample Num=937
# gray color=no significant difference
unit : m/s
Streamflow
Decrease Increase
• Increasing flood risk over the Parana river basin
• Decreasing streamflow in the Andean mountains
Future-Present20-km model: Present
Cooperation activities of the MRI groupCooperation activities of the MRI group (by Earth Simulator Earth Simulator computed model outputscomputed model outputs for adaptation studiesfor adaptation studies)
Adaptation study in Coastal Zones of Caribbean countries: Barbados(one, 2005), Belize (one, 2005)
Adaptation studies in Colombian coastal areas, high mountain ecosystems: Colombia (two, 2005; two, 2009)
Adaptation to Climate Impacts in the Coastal Wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico: Mexico (two, 2006)
Adaptation to Rapid Glacier Retreat in the Tropical Andes: Peru (one, 2006; 2010?), Ecuador (one, 2006; one, 2009), Bolivia (one, 2006)
Amazon Dieback: Brazil (two, 2008)
Cooperation under the Cooperation under the JICAJICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency)(Japan International Cooperation Agency) fundsfunds Adaptation studies in agriculture in Argentina: Argentina (three, 2008) Adaptation studies in monsoon Asia: Bangladesh, Indonesia,
Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam (one each, 2008 & 2009) Adaptation studies in Yucatan wetland: Mexico (three, 2009) Adaptation studies in South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay,
Uruguay (2010 & 2011)
Cooperation under the Cooperation under the World BankWorld Bank funds funds
Other collaborations with India, Korea, Thailand, USA, Spain, …
SST
O
CMIP3 AOGCMs
A
20km,60km AGCM
NHM5km
Time slice experiments
Prediction of regional climate by one-way nested NHM
Lower B.C.
A
Kakushin Team-Extremes Time-Slice ExperimentsKakushin Team-Extremes Time-Slice Experiments
Regional Climate ModelNHM2/1km
Projected SSTNested in the NHM5km
AGCM/NHM are climate model versions of the JMA operational NWP models
Nested in the AGCM20km
JMA NHMHorizontal resolution NHM5km NHM2km
Grid points 669x527x50 767x562 x50
Cumulus parameterization Yes (Kain-Fritsch) No
Cloud physics 1-moment 3-ice bulk scheme 2-moment 3-ice bulk scheme
The spectral boundary coupling (SBC ) method Yes No
Execution period-Main experiment-The preliminary experiment
17th May – 30th Oct. for each yearfor 25 years x 3 series.for 2002-2006 for the perfect boundary experiment using regional analysis data.
1st Jun. – 30th Oct. for each yearfor 25 years x 3 series.Selected months for 2002-2006 using the NHM5km perfect boundary experiment.
Time step 24s 12s
Output (2D) 1 hourly 1 hourly
Output (3D) 3 hourly 3 hourly
Changes in pdf/cdf of precipitation (Jun-Oct)
pdf/cdf of daily precipitation (all Japan) pdf/cdf of hourly precipitation (all Japan)
End 21c
Present
End 21c
Present
Near-future: No change in daily precipitation Increase of strong hourly precipitation → increase of short-term strong rainEnd 21c: Increase of strong both of daily and hourly precipitation daily 40% increase for > 150mm/day hourly 60% increase for > 50mm/hour
Near-futureNear-future
Upward motion (top 3): NHM5km
Mean 3rd Updraft (m/s)
Mean Top3Updraft (m/s)
PF
P F
a)
b)
c)
LCL :463→468mLCL-LFC :76→83hPaCAPE: 1139→1538J/kgCIN: 26→30J/kg
DRY
S Nharder to occur
taller convection
Pacific Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Japan Sea
Japan Sea
Japan
Japan
Present
Future
Schematic of changing characteristics
Jet stream will shift southward.
Higher SSTSupply of high e air mass at the low level
Dry
Delay of the northward movement of the Baiu front
Larger convective instability
More intense convections
Increment of intense
precipitation
Relationship between GW and ENSOPrecip Future–Present (Jul) Precip El Niño–La Niña (Jul)
MRI-CGCM2
Comparisons of locations and values of heavy rainfall events
>1000mm/day >500mm/day >300mm/day
Obs
NHM5km
PresentNHM5km
Future
July Precipitation Characteristics: precip ・ wet days ・ SDIIOBS(APHRO) AGCM-20km RCM-5km RCM-2km
# all data are averaged in 20-km grid
We find that RCM-5km is applicable for projections of future changes in daily precipitation, while RCM-2km for hourly precipitation
top related