climate change in peruvian perspective

CLIMATE CHANGE IN PERUVIAN PERSPECTIVECLIMATE CHANGE IN PERUVIAN PERSPECTIVE

Renzo Mendoza Castro

This is PERUThis is PERU……

……and so is THISand so is THIS

Background notesBackground notes

Population : 27 926 000 (July 2005) Third largest country in South America IPPC: One of the most vulnerable to climate change

– Biodiversity hot spot (Amazon Basin)– Abundant natural resources– Climate variability– Seasonal Agriculture

Poor. Its economy is growing with increasing inequality

Understanding Peruvian ClimateUnderstanding Peruvian Climate

Three geographical regions: Coast, Highlands, and Jungle.

Different altitudes and various sea currents affect climate creating ecological stages

El Niño phenomenon:– Warm equatorial sea current disrupts climate

patterns: heavy rains in the coast and drought in the highlands.

– 1983 : 30% drop in primary sectors

Economic and Political BackgroundEconomic and Political Background

Economic Instability Terrorism during the 80s Structural Adjustment / Liberalization during the

90s:– Elimination of subsidies to fossil fuels– Privatization of power generation and

distribution– Promotion of natural gas use– Deregulation of Public Ground transportation

services and import of used vehicles Quasi-dictatorship of Fujimori

GDP : Good News at the Macro-levelGDP : Good News at the Macro-level

Source: Peruvian Reserve Central Bank

• 2005 GDP (PPP) : 168.9 billion• 5.6% growth

……Not Felt at a Micro-levelNot Felt at a Micro-level

Widespread unemployment 54% population under poverty line in 2003 Rural exodus. Urban population increased

from 35% to 70 % from 1940 to 1993 Economic growth corresponds to an increase

in Inequality

Primary sectorsPrimary sectors

Dominated by the Service Sector• Services (including commerce): 65%• Industry : 27 %• Agriculture : 8%

Energy MixEnergy Mix

Nuclear 0 % Hydroelectric 9.4 % Other Renewable 33.1%

– Biomass : 33.1%

– Wind : Negligible

Fossil Fuels 56% – Coal : 3%

– Oil : 45%

– Nat. Gas : 5%

Source : WRI

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GHG Emissions ProfileGHG Emissions Profile

• CO2 is the largest GHG– Fuel Combustion and change

of land use and forestry are major sources

• Methane is also prominent– Agriculture is major source

*Source : CONAM. First GHG inventory

GHG Emission in comparisonGHG Emission in comparison

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Source : CONAM*Per capita energy consumption is also low in South American standards

Climate Change Institutional Climate Change Institutional FrameworkFrameworkThree Main Institutions:

National Environmental Council - CONAM (1995)– The Environmental Authority in Peru– Rules National Environmental Policies– Focal Point of UNFCCC and the Designated National Authority (DNA) for CDM

Environmental Fund Peru - FONAM (1997)– Non-profit institution of public and social interest– Aims to promote private investment on environmental projects as well as to

identify the sources of financing

The National Commission on Climate Change– Presided by the CONAM– Public and private institutional members– In charge of the application of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Agreements– Designs the National Strategy on Climate Change

Environmental LegislationEnvironmental Legislation

Environment and Natural Resources Code (1991)– Preventive policies for environmental protection

Law for Environmental Impact Assessment (2002) Air Quality Standards Code (2002)

General Environmental Law (2005) – Sets National Environmental Policy and Management– Ties together all previous legislation

VulnerabilityVulnerability

As indicated by CONAM and IPCC’s Working Group II:BiodiversityGlaciersCoastal and Marine EcosystemsPublic HealthSeasonal Agriculture Extreme events

National Strategy on Climate National Strategy on Climate Change (NSCC)Change (NSCC)Incorporating Climate Change into

development processReduce impacts of CC through

integrated assessments of vulnerability and adaptation in specific sectors– Identifying gaps– Gaps prioritization– Design and execute PROCLIM

PROCLIMPROCLIM

“To strengthen national capabilities for effective performance of the resources in prioritized geographic areas.”

Inventories Mitigation and CDM Inventories Mitigation and CDM in Peruin Peru

7 institutions working in 2000 GHG inventory Design of a system for continuous update CDM implementation

– DNA already in place– Specialized institution for promotion– 3 projects approved and 4 in process– Project Portfolio in place : 30 MM tons of reduction in 10

years

Supranational AgreementsSupranational Agreements

UNFCCC:– Ratified in 1993

Kyoto Protocol: – Ratified in 2002 as a non-Annex I

country

Analysis of PositionAnalysis of Position Third Image:

– Signatory of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty of 1978– Influence of Brazil : ‘common but differentiated’

responsibilities Second Image:

– High vulnerability:• Climate sensitive economy

– High cost of cutting emissions– CDM provides:

• Managing emission costs• Poverty alleviation• Technology transfer• Benefits for local air quality

– Decentralization efforts at the base of the National Strategy on Climate Change

The futureThe future Remains extremely vulnerable to adverse impacts of Climate Change Permanence within Kyoto would ensure further reductions through CDM Unlikely to relinquish the economic benefits from Kyoto:

– Peru has already designed an institutional strategy to promote projects eligible for CDM

– Peru wants investment and technology transfer For investors: studies show that Peru still offers numerous areas of high

marginal reductions per investment. Not likely to enter Annex-1 for the post-2012 period Peru will push for the prevalence of no reductions commitments for

developing nations Camisea Project will ensure further emissions reductions from the switch

to natural gas Could engage in voluntary reductions in an effort to appease those who

argue for stricter commitments for developing nations