the climate system from a polar perspective
DESCRIPTION
Adress by polar researcher Professor Lemke at the awarding ceremony of Bayer Climate Award 2010TRANSCRIPT
The climate system from a polar perspective
Peter LemkeAlfred Wegener Institute
for Polar and Marine ResearchBremerhaven
Institute for Environmental Physics
University of Bremen
The complex climate system
32
1
4 65
1.Stochastic climate models
2.Oceanic surface layer
3.Sea ice/ocean interaction
4.Sea ice dynamics
5.Sea ice ecosystem
6.Cryosphere (IPCC)
1 The climate system: Basic characteristics
Rapid atmosphere: DaysSluggish ocean: Months-500 yearsIce sheets: Millennia
Hasselmann, 1976
Energy balanceclimate model(Lemke, 1977)
1 Variance in the antarctic sea ice boundary
FrequencyPeriod
Vari
an
ce in
sea ice b
ou
nd
ary
Variations in sea ice can also be described with a sea ice model, i.e. through the Brownian motion approach. 1980
The complex climate system
2
1.Stochastic climate models
2.Oceanic surface layer
3.Sea ice/ocean interaction
4.Sea ice dynamics
5.Sea ice ecosystem
6.Cryosphere (IPCC)
2 Oceanic surface layer under the sea ice
The seasons in the Arctic Ocean
Salt content ofthe surface layer
Depth of the surface layer
Summer Winter
Summer
Winter
1984
20m
50m
The complex climate system
3
1.Stochastic climate models
2.Oceanic surface layer
3.Sea ice/ocean interaction
4.Sea ice dynamics
5.Sea ice ecosystem
6.Cryosphere (IPCC)
3 Sea ice/ocean interaction
Polynya experiment
Thickness of the sea ice
Salt content of the surface layer
Temperature of the surface layer
Depth of the surface layer
1987
The complex climate system
4
1.Stochastic climate models
2.Oceanic surface layer
3.Sea ice/ocean interaction
4.Sea ice dynamics
5.Sea ice ecosystem
6.Cryosphere (IPCC)
4 Sea ice drift and deformation from SAR images
RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System.
Due to a large swath width (~400 km) in ScanSAR mode, an image is obtained at least every 7th day
(by courtesy of Ron Kwok).
4 SIMIP sea ice model optimization
1997
The complex climate system
5
1.Stochastic climate models
2.Oceanic surface layer
3.Sea ice/ocean interaction
4.Sea ice dynamics
5.Sea ice ecosystem
6.Cryosphere (IPCC)
5 The sea ice ecosystem
5 Working on sea ice
5 Sampling
5 The sea ice ecosystem
Brine channelsin the sea ice
© J. Weissenberger © R. Kiko
© M. Kramer
© R. Kiko
The complex climate system
1.Stochastic climate models
2.Oceanic surface layer
3.Sea ice/ocean interaction
4.Sea ice dynamics
5.Sea ice ecosystem
6.Cryosphere (IPCC)
6
6 Climate report (IPCC) - Chpt. 4
2007
Frequently Asked Question 4.1:
Is the Amount of Snow and Ice on the Earth Decreasing?
Yes.
Snowfields in the northern hemisphere shrinking Glacial retreat worldwide Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets shrinking Permafrost thawing in many areas Significant reduction in Arctic sea ice
Aktualisiert von IPCC AR4 (2007)
Sept. 2007
Decline in summer minimum(-8 % per decade)
6 Arctic sea ice - extent in summer
2070Arctic ice-free in summer
Measuring sea ice thickness
EM bird
Rabenstein, Hendricks,Leinweber, 2007
AWI sea ice group
6 km
Significant rise in average global temperatures
GISS Data
2009
2008
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Fo
ssil
Fu
el E
mis
sio
n (G
tC y
-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10
A1B
A1FI
A1T
A2
B1
B2
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
International Energy Agency
CO2 emissions (billion metric tons carbon dioxide/year)
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009
... are far higher than the IPCC's worst-case scenarios
2100:ΔT ~ 4°C
Thank you!Bayer AG
Klaus Hasselmann
Our colleagues at
MPI for Meteorology, Hamburg
Princeton University
Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel
Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven
IUP, University of Bremen
Hildegard, Saskia, Mark, Stefan
Nature's sculptures
Our challenge:
To make sustainable use of a constantly changing planet
Thank you for your attention.