climate change and wilderness - a scottish perspective

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDERNESS CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDERNESS A SCOTTISH PERSPECTIVE A SCOTTISH PERSPECTIVE The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere will last longer The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste, far longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste, far longer than the age of civilization so far…[it] will persist for hundreds of thousands of years than the age of civilization so far…[it] will persist for hundreds of thousands of years into the future.” into the future.” D. Archer, 2009, The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate, D. Archer, 2009, The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate, P.U.P. P.U.P. Comparison of modern global sea surface temperatures with palaeoclimate data Comparison of modern global sea surface temperatures with palaeoclimate data suggests the planet is at its warmest in the past one million years…and this suggests the planet is at its warmest in the past one million years…and this constitutes dangerous climate change. ” constitutes dangerous climate change. ” Hansen J.E. et. al., 2006 P.N.A.S Hansen J.E. et. al., 2006 P.N.A.S . . Politicians use science the way a drunk uses a lamp-post: for support, not Politicians use science the way a drunk uses a lamp-post: for support, not illumination. illumination. Jack Talmadge: retired Head of NSF Jack Talmadge: retired Head of NSF

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Page 1: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDERNESSCLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDERNESS

A SCOTTISH PERSPECTIVEA SCOTTISH PERSPECTIVE

“ “The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer will last longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste, far longer than the age of civilization so far…[it] than nuclear waste, far longer than the age of civilization so far…[it] will persist for hundreds of thousands of years into the future.”will persist for hundreds of thousands of years into the future.”

D. Archer, 2009, The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 D. Archer, 2009, The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate, P.U.P.Years of Earth’s Climate, P.U.P.

““Comparison of modern global sea surface temperatures with Comparison of modern global sea surface temperatures with palaeoclimate data suggests the planet is at its warmest in the past palaeoclimate data suggests the planet is at its warmest in the past one million years…and this constitutes dangerous climate change. ”one million years…and this constitutes dangerous climate change. ”

Hansen J.E. et. al., 2006 P.N.A.SHansen J.E. et. al., 2006 P.N.A.S. .

Politicians use science the way a drunk uses a lamp-post: for Politicians use science the way a drunk uses a lamp-post: for support, not illumination.support, not illumination.

Jack Talmadge: retired Head of NSFJack Talmadge: retired Head of NSF

Page 2: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEMTHE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM

atmosphereatmosphere

biospherebiosphere anthrosphereanthrosphere

lithospherelithosphere cryospherecryospherePlate Plate

tectonicstectonics

Earth’s Earth’s orbitorbit

Solar Solar Radiation and Radiation and

Magnetic FieldsMagnetic Fields

Changes in Changes in atmosphereatmosphere

Changes in Changes in cryospherecryosphere

Changes in Changes in biospherebiosphere

Changes in Changes in hydrospherehydrosphere

Changes in Changes in lithospherelithosphere

External External forcingforcing

Internal Internal interactionsinteractions

Internal Internal responsesresponses

hydrospherehydrosphere

Changes in Changes in anthrosphereanthrosphere

Page 3: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

Professor John TyndallProfessor John Tyndall1820-18931820-1893

Tyndall proved in 1859 that Tyndall proved in 1859 that the Earth’s atmosphere has a the Earth’s atmosphere has a

greenhouse effectgreenhouse effect

150 YEARS OF RESEARCH INTO GREENHOUSE GASES150 YEARS OF RESEARCH INTO GREENHOUSE GASES

Page 4: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

Prof.William RuddimanProf.William RuddimanUniversity of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia

(author of (author of Earth’s Climate: Earth’s Climate: Past and Future)Past and Future)

Evidence that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse Evidence that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases first altered the natural balance of the gases first altered the natural balance of the atmosphere with the introduction of systematic atmosphere with the introduction of systematic farming involving deforestation (~8000 years ago) farming involving deforestation (~8000 years ago) and rice planting (~5000 years ago)and rice planting (~5000 years ago)

See T. F. Stocker et al: 2009 Nature 461 507-511 for See T. F. Stocker et al: 2009 Nature 461 507-511 for constraints on Holocene carbon constraints on Holocene carbon cyclecycleSee J Pongratz et al: 2009 Global Biogeochem. Cycles, See J Pongratz et al: 2009 Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 10, 1029, for evidence of pre-industrial anthropodenic 10, 1029, for evidence of pre-industrial anthropodenic COCO22 emissionsemissions

Page 5: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PAST CLIMATES RECONSTRUCTION FROM OXYGEN-ISOTOPE PAST CLIMATES RECONSTRUCTION FROM OXYGEN-ISOTOPE ANALYSIS OF DEEP SEA AND POLAR ICE CORES.ANALYSIS OF DEEP SEA AND POLAR ICE CORES.

Page 6: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONPALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION

Page 7: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONPALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION

Page 8: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONPALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION

Page 9: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONPALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION

Page 10: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONPALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION

Page 11: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONPALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION

Page 12: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONPALAEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION

Page 13: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective
Page 14: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective
Page 15: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

• Temperatures are risingTemperatures are rising

• Sea levels are risingSea levels are rising

• Snowfall is decreasingSnowfall is decreasing

Known Global ImpactsKnown Global Impacts

Page 16: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

Global ImpactsGlobal Impacts

Page 17: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

Oceanic Acidification and Loss Oceanic Acidification and Loss of Coral Reefsof Coral Reefs

Global ImpactsGlobal Impacts

Crop Yield ReductionsCrop Yield Reductions

Increased Risk of WildfiresIncreased Risk of Wildfires

Page 18: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

ScotlandScotland

Data courtesy Scottish Natural HeritageData courtesy Scottish Natural Heritage

Page 19: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

All Scotland

10

100

1000

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Ind

ex

(1

97

9 =

10

0)

Lo

g S

ca

le

All species (21)

Specialists (7)

Generalists (14)

Generalists increasing - due to climate changeGeneralists increasing - due to climate change Specialists decreasing – due to habitat lossSpecialists decreasing – due to habitat loss

ScotlandScotland

Data courtesy Scottish Natural HeritageData courtesy Scottish Natural Heritage

Page 20: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

1989

Ben MacduiBen Macdui

2008

ScotlandScotland

Page 21: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

DO SUNSPOTS CAUSE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?DO SUNSPOTS CAUSE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?

““By projecting surface temperature data (1959–2004)By projecting surface temperature data (1959–2004)onto the spatial structure obtained objectively from theonto the spatial structure obtained objectively from thecomposite mean difference between solar max andcomposite mean difference between solar max andsolar min years, we obtain a global warming signal ofsolar min years, we obtain a global warming signal ofalmost 0.2almost 0.2ooC attributable to the 11-year solar cycle.”C attributable to the 11-year solar cycle.”

““Sunspot cycles Sunspot cycles correspond with surface correspond with surface temperature cycles, but temperature cycles, but can explain only about 20% can explain only about 20% of the variation.”of the variation.”

Prof. Ka-Kit TungProf. Ka-Kit TungWashington U.Washington U.

Charles D. Camp and Ka Kit Tung, “Surface warming by the solar cycle Charles D. Camp and Ka Kit Tung, “Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection,” as revealed by the composite mean difference projection,”

Geophysical Research LettersGeophysical Research Letters, 2007, 2007

Page 22: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

GREENHOUSE GASES DO GREENHOUSE GASES DO AFFECT GLOBAL CLIMATEAFFECT GLOBAL CLIMATE

““Cloud condensation nuclei Cloud condensation nuclei concentrations aren’t very concentrations aren’t very sensitive to changes in galactic sensitive to changes in galactic cosmic ray abundance.”cosmic ray abundance.”

Pierce, J.R. , Adams P.J. , 2009Pierce, J.R. , Adams P.J. , 2009J.Geophy. Res. Lett. 10 1029J.Geophy. Res. Lett. 10 1029

ARE GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS IMPORTANT?ARE GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS IMPORTANT?

Page 23: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

Prof. James E. HansenProf. James E. HansenHead of NASA Head of NASA

Goddard Institute Goddard Institute for for

Space Studies Space Studies

Hansen has issued strong warnings Hansen has issued strong warnings about how low-lying coastal areas about how low-lying coastal areas such as Florida (seen here), East such as Florida (seen here), East Anglia, the Netherlands, low oceanic Anglia, the Netherlands, low oceanic islands and Bangladesh are islands and Bangladesh are vulnerable to rising sea levels .vulnerable to rising sea levels .

VenusVenus

Page 24: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGEMODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE

““A large part of the warming must to be attributed to human A large part of the warming must to be attributed to human activities.”activities.”

UKCIP02-2006UKCIP02-2006

““There is no credible evidence that cosmic rays play a significant There is no credible evidence that cosmic rays play a significant role in global climate change.” role in global climate change.”

Alan Thorpe: Chief Executive UK Natural Environment Research CouncilAlan Thorpe: Chief Executive UK Natural Environment Research Council

““Climate Models are probably the most complex in all of Climate Models are probably the most complex in all of science and have already proved their worth with startling science and have already proved their worth with startling success in simulating the past climate of the Earth.”success in simulating the past climate of the Earth.”

J. Scaife et. al., Physics World Feb 2007J. Scaife et. al., Physics World Feb 2007

"In many ways we know more about what will happen in the "In many ways we know more about what will happen in the 2050s than next year." 2050s than next year."

Vicky Pope, UK Met Office,Vicky Pope, UK Met Office, WMO Conference, 2009WMO Conference, 2009

Page 25: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

THE BASIC GLOBAL THE BASIC GLOBAL CLIMATE COMPUTER MODELCLIMATE COMPUTER MODEL

Global CO2 levels from 1960-2100 for different emission Global CO2 levels from 1960-2100 for different emission scenariosscenarios

Page 26: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

2.0

US CHINA EU

1.0

3.0

2.5

1.5

0.5

FSU INDIA AFRICA

+39%

+118%

+19%+42%

+70%+80%

PROJECTED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY 2025PROJECTED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY 20252000 Emissions2000 Emissions

2025 Projected 2025 Projected EmissionsEmissions

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

World Developednations

Developingnations

+57%

+35%

+84%

Bill

ion

s o

f to

nn

es o

f ca

rbo

n e

qu

ival

ent

Bill

ion

s o

f to

nn

es o

f ca

rbo

n e

qu

ival

ent

J.Tollefson, 2009, Nature 460, 158-159J.Tollefson, 2009, Nature 460, 158-159

Page 27: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective
Page 28: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN IPCC CLIMATE FORECAST MODELSNOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN IPCC CLIMATE FORECAST MODELS

Substantial slowing or collapse ofSubstantial slowing or collapse ofocean circulation that transportsocean circulation that transports

heat to North Atlanticheat to North Atlantic

Crucial positive feedback mechanisms such Crucial positive feedback mechanisms such as tundra or ocean-bed methane releaseas tundra or ocean-bed methane release

Effect of ice loss from polar regionsEffect of ice loss from polar regions

Page 29: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM : TIPPING POINTSTHE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM : TIPPING POINTS

Average Temperature Average Temperature Change Change ooCC

Action NeededAction Needed CO2 TargetCO2 Target

0.5 - 1.00.5 - 1.0 Already reached and unavoidableAlready reached and unavoidable 350 ppm350 ppm

Tipping point for ice-albedo feedbackTipping point for ice-albedo feedbackApproaching tipping points for oceanic CO2 saturation and dangerous acidificationApproaching tipping points for oceanic CO2 saturation and dangerous acidification

1.1 - 2.01.1 - 2.0 Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2015: Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2015: unavoidableunavoidable

400 ppm400 ppm

Tipping point for carbon cycle feedback (release of carbon currently sequestered in soils and oceans)Tipping point for carbon cycle feedback (release of carbon currently sequestered in soils and oceans)

2.1 - 3.02.1 - 3.0 Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2030Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2030 450 ppm450 ppm

Tipping point for Siberian methane feedback/oceanic methane clathrate releaseTipping point for Siberian methane feedback/oceanic methane clathrate release

3.1 - 4.03.1 - 4.0 Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2050Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2050 550 ppm550 ppm

Severe stressing of global economic and agricultural systemsSevere stressing of global economic and agricultural systems

4.1 - 5.04.1 - 5.0 Allow constantly rising emissionsAllow constantly rising emissions > 650 ppm> 650 ppm

Potential for mass extinctions/collapse of global economic and agricultural systemsPotential for mass extinctions/collapse of global economic and agricultural systems

Page 30: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Risks to unique and threatened systems

Risks of extreme weather events

Distribution of impacts

Aggregate economic impacts

Risks of

large scale discontinuities

Risks to some

Risks to many

Increase

Large increase

Negative for most regions

Negative for some regions, positive for others

Positive or

negative market

impacts: majority of people adversely affected Low

HighNegative in all

markets

pas

tfu

ture

B1B1(x2)(x2)

A1F1A1F1(x3)(x3)

Incr

ease

in

glo

bal

mea

n t

em

pe

ratu

res

abo

ve p

re-

ind

us

tria

l le

vels

(oC

)

NOWNOW

Smith J.B et al, 2009, P.N.A.S. 106, 4133-4137 (Nature 2009 458 1104-1105)Smith J.B et al, 2009, P.N.A.S. 106, 4133-4137 (Nature 2009 458 1104-1105)

Page 31: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

THE 3 THE 3 ooC WORLDC WORLD Last experienced ~ 3million years agoLast experienced ~ 3million years ago

AN ICE FREE ARCTIC?AN ICE FREE ARCTIC?

19921992 20022002 20062006

Page 32: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

There is a marked 30 year decline in Arctic summertime ice extentThere is a marked 30 year decline in Arctic summertime ice extent

Satellite Imagery from Cryosphere Today WebsiteSatellite Imagery from Cryosphere Today Website

Page 33: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective
Page 34: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

Pine Island Glacier: West AntarcticaPine Island Glacier: West Antarctica

“…“….the rate of thinning of the Pine Island .the rate of thinning of the Pine Island Glacier quadrupled from 1995 to 2006.”Glacier quadrupled from 1995 to 2006.”

D. Wingham et.al., 2009, Geophys.Res.Lett. 36, D. Wingham et.al., 2009, Geophys.Res.Lett. 36, L17501L17501

If the current rate of acceleration continues, the If the current rate of acceleration continues, the main trunk of the glacier will be afloat within 100 main trunk of the glacier will be afloat within 100 years.years.

Page 35: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

INCREASING RELEASE OF POLAR ICEINCREASING RELEASE OF POLAR ICE

Journal of Glaciology, 2009 Vol55, 573Journal of Glaciology, 2009 Vol55, 573

““While the growth of great ice sheets While the growth of great ice sheets takes millenia, the disintegration of ice takes millenia, the disintegration of ice sheets is a wet process that can proceed sheets is a wet process that can proceed rapidly.”rapidly.”

J. E. Hansen, (2009), NASA J. E. Hansen, (2009), NASA Goddard Institute of Space StudiesGoddard Institute of Space Studies

Page 36: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

Ancient reefs in Mexico suggest that sea levels rose Ancient reefs in Mexico suggest that sea levels rose 3 metres in less than 100 years during last interglacial3 metres in less than 100 years during last interglacial

Page 37: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

2009

2060?

CHANGES TO NORTHERN CHANGES TO NORTHERN EUROPEAN COASTLINEEUROPEAN COASTLINE

Page 38: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective
Page 39: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

DEATH OF CORAL DEATH OF CORAL REEFSREEFS

OCEAN ACIDIFICATIONOCEAN ACIDIFICATION

PELAGIC ECOSYSTEMPELAGIC ECOSYSTEMCOLLAPSECOLLAPSE

Page 40: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

Karakoram/ Himalayan /Tibetan Karakoram/ Himalayan /Tibetan drainage provides fresh water drainage provides fresh water for 1/4 of the world’s population: for 1/4 of the world’s population: already at risk because of already at risk because of reduced winter snow reduced winter snow accumulation and net loss of accumulation and net loss of glacial ice.glacial ice.

Some South American Some South American countries are totally reliant on countries are totally reliant on seasonal melt from Andes for seasonal melt from Andes for their water: already at serious their water: already at serious risk because of reduced snow risk because of reduced snow accumulation in winter and accumulation in winter and loss of glacial ice. loss of glacial ice.

Page 41: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

High Emission Scenario High Emission Scenario by 2080by 2080

Mean Temperature Mean Temperature Change: AnnualChange: Annual

High Emission Scenario High Emission Scenario by 2080by 2080

Mean Precipitation Mean Precipitation Change: SummerChange: Summer

Source: UKCIP09Source: UKCIP09 Source: UKCIP09Source: UKCIP09

Page 42: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

Source: UKCIP09Source: UKCIP09

High Emission Scenario High Emission Scenario by 2080by 2080

Mean Precipitation Mean Precipitation Change: WinterChange: Winter

Page 43: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PLAN 0PLAN 0 do nothingdo nothing

problem too big: unsolvableproblem too big: unsolvable

problem too small: nothing to solveproblem too small: nothing to solve

PLAN APLAN A 2 2 ooC limit ?C limit ?

trillion tonne aggregate limit ?trillion tonne aggregate limit ?

550…450…350 ppm limit ?550…450…350 ppm limit ?

PLAN BPLAN B

COCO22 emissions emissions reductionreduction

Mitigation Mitigation strategies strategies

Carbon capture and storageCarbon capture and storage

Geo-engineeringGeo-engineeringeg: Solar radiation reductioneg: Solar radiation reduction

PLAN CPLAN C voluntary reduction in personal carbon footprintvoluntary reduction in personal carbon footprint

To

p-d

ow

nT

op

-do

wn

Bo

tto

m-u

pB

ott

om

-up

WHAT’S TO BE DONE?WHAT’S TO BE DONE?

Page 44: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

1997 KYOTO EMISSIONS PLEDGES ARE FALLING SHORT 1997 KYOTO EMISSIONS PLEDGES ARE FALLING SHORT

PLEDGES: 10% -- 24% below 1990 by 2020PLEDGES: 10% -- 24% below 1990 by 2020 REQUIRED BY IPCC: 25% -- 40%REQUIRED BY IPCC: 25% -- 40%

G8 target: 80% -- 90% of 1990 levels by 2050. No G8 target for 2020.G8 target: 80% -- 90% of 1990 levels by 2050. No G8 target for 2020.

Page 45: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

CUMULATIVE COCUMULATIVE CO22 EMISSIONS 1750-2006 EMISSIONS 1750-2006Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre, Oak Ridge National LaboratorySource: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

PLAN APLAN A

8%6%

28%

2%

3%7%

3%

4%

8%

18%

13%

RussiaRussiaUKUK

USAUSA

ShippingShipping

Canada &Canada &AustraliaAustralia

GermanyGermanyJapanJapan

IndiaIndia

ChinaChina

Rest of Rest of EuropeEurope

Rest Rest of Worldof World

b)b) failed policy of “Cap and Trade” (eg European Union Emissions Trading failed policy of “Cap and Trade” (eg European Union Emissions Trading System). Replace with “DUCT” (Direct Universal Carbon Tax)?System). Replace with “DUCT” (Direct Universal Carbon Tax)?

New Scientist 2009 September 12, pg 35New Scientist 2009 September 12, pg 35

c)c) Adopt an “OAR” Strategy (Overshoot, Adapt and Recover)?Adopt an “OAR” Strategy (Overshoot, Adapt and Recover)?Parry M. et. al. , 2009 Nature, Vol 458, 1102-1103Parry M. et. al. , 2009 Nature, Vol 458, 1102-1103

a)a) Which Line in the sand? 2Which Line in the sand? 2ooC ? 450 ppm ? “Trillion-tonne limit”?C ? 450 ppm ? “Trillion-tonne limit”?Nature 2009 1158-1166Nature 2009 1158-1166

The Principle of Common Differentiated ResponsibilityThe Principle of Common Differentiated Responsibility

Page 46: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

20032003 20082008

USAUSA 9,1499,149 25,23725,237

GermanyGermany 18,41518,415 23,93323,933

SpainSpain 10,02810,028 16,54316,543

ChinaChina 1,2601,260 12,12112,121

IndiaIndia 4,4304,430 9,6559,655

ItalyItaly 1,7181,718 3,7363,736

FranceFrance 757757 3,4043,404

UKUK 1,3321,332 3,2883,288

DenmarkDenmark 3,1363,136 3,1603,160

World TotalWorld Total 59,09159,091 121,188121,188

WIND POWER CAPACITY 2008WIND POWER CAPACITY 2008/MW/MW

PROJECTED GROWTH: PROJECTED GROWTH: 160GW BY 2010160GW BY 2010

Electricity generated Electricity generated worldwide in 2006:worldwide in 2006:

19,015 Terawatt-hours19,015 Terawatt-hours

Non-renewableNon-renewable 81.51 %81.51 %

HydroHydro 16.41 %16.41 %

WindWind 0.68 % 0.68 %

SolarSolar 0.02 % 0.02 %

Other RenewableOther Renewable 1.37 % 1.37 %

Electricity that could be Electricity that could be generated worldwide from generated worldwide from

renewable sources : 975,010 renewable sources : 975,010 TWhrTWhr

Source: Source: World Energy Statistics World Energy Statistics

and Balances and Balances OECD/IEAOECD/IEA

PLAN APLAN A

Page 47: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PLAN B: PLAN B: GEOENGINEERING GEOENGINEERING

Page 48: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

COSTCOST

CL

IMA

TE

BE

NE

FIT

CL

IMA

TE

BE

NE

FIT

low

low

mediummedium highhighlowlow

med

ium

med

ium

hig

hh

igh

stratospheric aerosols

spacesunshades

surface albedo

oceanfertilization

cloudalbedo

conventionalmitigation

CO2

capture

mediumrisk

low risk high risk

COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF GEOENGINEERING PROPOSALS COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF GEOENGINEERING PROPOSALS RELATIVE TO CONVENTIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONRELATIVE TO CONVENTIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

SAFEST: COSAFEST: CO22 capture capture

HIGHEST COST-HIGHEST COST-BENEFIT RATIO: BENEFIT RATIO: Stratospheric aerosol Stratospheric aerosol injectioninjection

P Cox and H Jeffrey, 2009,P Cox and H Jeffrey, 2009, Physics World, Vol 22 No 5, Physics World, Vol 22 No 5,

Royal Society, 2009,Royal Society, 2009,Geoengineering ClimateGeoengineering Climate

PLAN B: PLAN B: GEOENGINEERING GEOENGINEERING

Page 49: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

PLAN C: <9.8 TONNES PER PERSON PER ANNUMPLAN C: <9.8 TONNES PER PERSON PER ANNUM

SUMMARY TABLE OF SAVINGS SUMMARY TABLE OF SAVINGS FOR A UK CITIZENFOR A UK CITIZEN

COCO22 emissions saving per emissions saving per

person per annum / tonnesperson per annum / tonnes

Home InsulationHome Insulation 0.800.80

Purchase green electricity*Purchase green electricity* 0.800.80

Unplug appliances on standbyUnplug appliances on standby 0.040.04

Buy a wood-burning stove with Buy a wood-burning stove with back boilerback boiler

0.900.90

Swap PC for laptopSwap PC for laptop 0.200.20

Buy organic productsBuy organic products 0.800.80

Control use of washing machine Control use of washing machine and scrap tumble drierand scrap tumble drier

0.250.25

Buy local non-processed non-Buy local non-processed non-packaged foodpackaged food

0.700.70

Use energy efficient light bulbsUse energy efficient light bulbs 0.250.25

Lower household thermostat by Lower household thermostat by 22ooC in winterC in winter

0.400.40

Stop flyingStop flying 1.601.60

Change car to hybrid / electricChange car to hybrid / electric 1.001.00

TOTALTOTAL 7.747.74

Page 50: Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective

““The wild places are where we began. When they end, so do we.”The wild places are where we began. When they end, so do we.”

David BrowerDavid Brower(Founder: Friends of the Earth)(Founder: Friends of the Earth)

“…“…how we might reconnect public policy with rigorous science, bring how we might reconnect public policy with rigorous science, bring our economy into alignment with ecological realities, and begin to our economy into alignment with ecological realities, and begin to regard ourselves as planetary trustees for future generations…”regard ourselves as planetary trustees for future generations…”

D.W. Orr, 2009, Confronting Climate Collapse, OUPD.W. Orr, 2009, Confronting Climate Collapse, OUP

“…“…significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.”of thinking we were at when we created them.”

attributed to A. Einstein by A. Calaprice, 2005, attributed to A. Einstein by A. Calaprice, 2005, The New Quotable Einstein, P.U.P.The New Quotable Einstein, P.U.P.