climate change in new york findings of the ucs northeast climate impacts assessment and the cornell...

Climate Change in New York

Findings of the UCSNortheast Climate Impacts

Assessmentand

The Cornell Climate Impacts InitiativeArt DeGaetano

Professor, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University

Director Northeast Regional Climate Center

The Climate of New York is Already Changing

• Annual temperatures across New York have warmed almost 2º F since 1970

• Winter temperatures have warmed by nearly 5° F since 1970

• The date of the last spring frost has become 1 week earlier since 1950

• There are about 2 more days >90°F since 1970

Northeast Winter Temp

Significant Change in Winter Climate!

38.5

39

39.5

40

40.5

41

41.5

42

42.5

30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Latit

ude

(o N)

Winter (DJF) Mean Temperature (o F)

Boston

New York

Philadelphia

Washington, DC

4.8oF

4.8o

The Precipitation Climatology is also Changing

• Average rainfall has increased by more than 3 inches since 1950

• There is about one more 2 inch rainfall per year since 1950

• Snow fall has declined by as much a 20 inches in some parts of the state since 1970

• In Lake Effect areas, there has been a long term increase in snowfall

New York Extreme Precipitation Events (>2 inches in 48 hrs)

These Changes Affect Design Criteria for Flooding

Central Park1940 - 1960 1970-2006

2-yr 3.10 3.86

50-yr 6.21 7.31

100-yr 7.22 8.39

2-yr 2.43 2.49

50-yr 4.46 5.73

100-yr 5.08 6.86

Ithaca

Lake Effect Snow

Adirondacks Snow Cover

What About Beyond 2007?

Anthropogenic Forcing

Clicker Question

• What are the major sources of anthropogenic methane

a) Landfills

b) Fossil fuel combustion

c) Agriculture

d) Plastic manufacturing

Emission Scenarios

Source: IPCC 2001

HIGHER

A1FI

LOWER

B1

Projecting Climate

From Global to Local Scale

Projections and Observations

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

tem

pera

ture

cha

nge

( o F

)

observationshigher emissionslower emissions

22ooF warming since F warming since 19701970

Higher: 6.5-12.5Higher: 6.5-12.5ooFF

Lower: 3.5-6.5Lower: 3.5-6.5ooFF

Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

Timing of Seasons

By 2070-2099:

• Spring will be arriving earlier by 1-2 weeks (lower) or almost 3 weeks (higher)

• The growing season is projected to be extended by 4 weeks (lower) and up to 6 weeks (higher)

• Summer is expected to arrive earlier by 1-1.5 weeks (lower) or 3 weeks (higher) and stay longer by 2 weeks (lower) or 3 weeks (higher)

Lilacs: 4 days earlierApples: 9 days earlierGrapes: 6 days earlier

Increasing annual precipitation

Extreme Precipitation• Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across

the Northeast• Under both emissions scenarios

– rainfall is expected to become more intense. – periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent.

Anticipating Impacts• Geographic scope: Nine Northeast states,

• Sectoral scope: coastal, marine, forests,

agriculture, winter recreation, health,

solutions.

• Analytic approach: Assess potential

impacts of climate change through 2100

under lower and higher scenarios of

greenhouse gas emissions

Sea-Level Rise

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

pro

ject

ed

glo

ba

l me

an

se

a le

vel r

ise

(cm

))

Higher emissions

Lower emissions

uncertainty in SLR from thermal expansion

uncertainty in SLR from ice melt

These estimates do not include the potential for additional increases due to more rapid melting of major polar ice sheets.

Higher: 8-33 inchesHigher: 8-33 inches

Lower: 4-21 inchesLower: 4-21 inches

Associated Press

Clicker Question

What causes more than 50% of this sea level rise?

a) Melting of mountain glaciersb) Melting of Greenlandc) Melting of Antarcticad) Thermal expansion of water

Credit: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.. NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/).

NYC : Today’s 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years under the Higher-Emissions Scenario

•More Coastal Erosion

•Wetland Inundation and Loss

Lake Ontario Levels

Impacts on Human Health•Extreme Heat

•Air Quality

•Pollen Allergens

Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes: New York City

Photo credit: Associated Press

Source: NECIA, 2007

(see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

Increasing Risk of Poor Air Quality

Changes in Suitable Climate Conditions For Different Forest Types by Late-Centuryspruce/fir: Anastasiya Maksymenko; maple: Birthe Lunau; oak: Dave White;

ash: Chad Davis; loblolly: Kentucky Division of Forestry. Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/). Jerry and Marcy Monkman

Impacts on Agriculture

•Dairy

•Crops

•Pests and

Weeds

Percent Years Meeting 1000-hr Winter-Chill Requirement

(dark orange- most years meet requirement)

Days Below -4 F (dark orange- potential spread of

Kudzu range)

July Dairy Thermal Heat Index (THI > 72 (yellow-orange to red)

reduces milk production)

The Changing Face of Winter

Intraresearch, d.b.a. MapMart

Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

Key Climate and Impacts Findings

• Changes consistent with global warming are already evident across New York

• Over next few decades, changes similar under both emissions scenarios

• By mid-century, most changes are greater under the higher scenario

• By late-century, under the higher scenario many changes almost twice those seen with lower emissions

Meeting the Climate Challenge

•Reducing Emissions

•Adapting to unavoidable climate change

Keys to Adaptation

• Electric power

• Renewable energy

• Buildings

• Transportation

• Industry

• Forest/agricultural land management

• Methane recovery

Reducing New York Emissions

Harbec Plastics

Yahoo!/REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine

Available for download at: http://www.climatechoices.org

Questions?