climate change
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Climate Changenot an environmental problem,
a social justice problem with environmental causes
Ilias Bartolini@iliasbartolini
Oct 2013
4https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_David_Keeling
Charles David Keeling
8https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius
Svante Arrhenius
15https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius
Svante Arrhenius
Temperature on earthshould be… -18˚C !?!
16
Greenhouse efect
19
Gas T
Water vapor (H2O) + 30 ˚C
Carbon dioxide (CO2) + 2/4 ˚C
Methane (CH4) + 0.5 ˚C
Greenhouse efect
21
Modeling climate system
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/images/ocp2003/ocpfy2003-fg3-3.htm
22
Modeling climate system
http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/modeling_schematic.html
25
http://www.science.org.au/reports/climatechange2010.pdf
The future?
26
VULNERABILITY
27
Less food produced. Some estimate an aggregate fall of at least 10%
https://secure.fickr.com/photos/cgiarclimate/9687145368/
29
Up to 20 million people in low-lying Bangladesh are at risk from rising sea levels in the coming decades
https://secure.fickr.com/photos/aftab/152945444/
30
There's no compensation for the disappearance of our country
- Tuvalu's UNFCC representative
https://secure.fickr.com/photos/oxfamaustralia/8117764040/
31
15% - 37% of 1103 known endemic plant and animal species will be
committed to extinction by 2050
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_toad
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Disappearance of our natural species is an irreversible event
- Golden Toad last seen on May 15, 1989
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_toad
33
"The impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed - the poorest countries and people will sufer earliest and most"
- Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change
Pawel Kuczynski
34
Per capita GHG emissions(excluding land use change)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GHG_per_capita_2000_no_LUC.svg
35
Per capita CO2 emissions(including land use change)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CO2_responsibility_1950-2000.svg
37
US CHG emissions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CO2_responsibility_1950-2000.svg
38
Our habits
https://secure.fickr.com/photos/24460199@N07/2316497297/
https://secure.fickr.com/photos/24460199@N07/2316497297/
39
Our habits
https://secure.fickr.com/photos/24460199@N07/2316497297/
40
Our habits
41
We are not equally
responsible
We are not equally
afected
http://www.davidrevoy.com/article58/making-of-yin-yang-of-world-hunger
46Pawel Kuczynski & Do the math – 350.org
$0
for dumping greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere
47Pawel Kuczynski & Do the math – 350.org
$0
for dumping greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere
...for the last 100-ish years
48Pawel Kuczynski & Do the math – 350.org
$440,000
for lobbing US congress
49Pawel Kuczynski & Do the math – 350.org
$440,000
for lobbing US congress...every day!
55
Climate politics 101
Worldmapper.org
“hey! it is more expensive for us”
“you should commit and not cheat on your emissions!”
56
Climate politics 101
Worldmapper.org
“but you polluted for hundreds of years!”
“now is our turn, we need to develop our country”
57
Climate politics 101
Worldmapper.org
“and we are an exporting economy...
you are the consumer thatis benefiting from
our emissions!”
58
Climate politics 101
Worldmapper.org
“you should not betoo strict on us...amazon is the
green lung of earth”
59
Climate politics 101
Worldmapper.org
“hey, keep calm!”“...there's an interesting green
economy business here”
60
Climate politics 101
Worldmapper.org
“Don't be too harsh... btw I still have some
cheap oil to sell”
61
Climate politics 101
Worldmapper.org
“Don't be too harsh... btw I still have some
cheap oil to sell”
“Me too!”
62
Climate politics 101
Worldmapper.org
“Don't be too harsh... btw I still have some
cheap oil to sell”
“Me too!”
“And we got gas!”
63
Climate politics 101
Worldmapper.org
“While you keep discussing...our country is going todisappear under sea”
64NASA - http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/
65NASA - http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/
Tragedy of the commons
"is the depletion of a shared resource by individuals, acting
independently and rationally according to each
one's self-interest"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons
67
So how do they take decisions?
https://secure.fickr.com/photos/johnia/2355118699/
Consensus!
68
Inaction advocates and skeptics
● Make the problem uncertain● Make it just an environmental problem● Make the solution look expensive● Tell that "we need an international treaty" as precondition
73
Adrian Schiegl – Fragile Situations
“Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientifc certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-efective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”
- Precautionary principleUN Framework Convention on Climate Change
77
“Climate change is the greatest threat facing humanity. It threatens to undo 50 years of our development work and it will impact the poor in the greatest sense.”
- Ban Ki MoonSecretary-General of the United Nations
Adrian Schiegl – We will pay back later
78
"The inescapable challenges of the early 21st century:sustainability and resilience, and the interconnected challenges of energy, water, food and climate"
- Sir John BeddigtonUK's chief scientifc adviser
Adrian Schiegl – We will pay back later
79
Thank you!
...and feedback please! :)
https://my.thoughtworks.com/groups/climate-change
https://my.thoughtworks.com/groups/environmentaljustice
CC BY-SAhttps://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by-sa/3.0/
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