climate and climate change 17 january 2011. how and why does climate change? climate changes over a...

Climate and Climate Change

17 January 2011

How and Why Does Climate Change?

• Climate changes over a broad range of time scales– Years, decades, centuries, millennia

• Many factors combine to affect climate– Variability of incoming solar radiation– Regular changes in Earth’s orbit– Volcanic eruptions– Changes in Earth’s surface characteristics– Human activities

Climate Definition

• Weather of a locality averaged over a time period– 30 year periods, beginning with start of a decade– Current period is 1971-2000

• Plus extremes in weather– Temperature, precipitation, air pressure– Wind speed, cloudiness (may use entire station

record)

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

Climatic Anomalies• Departure from long-term climatic average of

the average for a particular week, month, or year

• Precipitation anomalies are more complex than temperature anomalies– Variability of storm tracks– Almost random distribution of convective showers

• Mid- and high latitudes affected by westerly wave patterns

Temperature Anomalies – US, Dec 2007

Precipitation Anomalies – US, Dec 2007

Climate Boundary Conditions

• Climate determine by conservation of energy and conservation of mass

• Climates of specific localities shaped by boundary conditions, e.g.,– Latitude, elevation, topography– Proximity to large bodies of water– Earth’s surface characteristics– Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

• Boundary conditions of first 4 change over 106-108 years

January Mean Sea-level Air Temperature (C)

Fig. 15.3, p. 455

July Mean Sea-level Air Temperature (C)

Fig. 15.4, p. 456

Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)

Fig. 15.5, p. 458

Köppen Climate

Classifications

Letters h, k and a, b, c, d indicate relative warmth, coolness

See Appendix III, p. 509-515

Table, p. 510

Earth’s Climate Record

Based on• Historical documents• Fossil plants and animals• Pollen profiles• Tree growth rings• Glacial ice cores• Deep sea sediment cores

Geologic Time Scale

Plate tectonics complicates climate reconstruction

Fig. 15.6, p. 460

Geologic Time Scale

4030

6567

3048 40

34

41 37

64 78

8.2

21.2 12.9 18.4 3.6 1.69 0.01

PrecambrianCambrianOrdovicianSilurianDevonianMississippianPennsylvanianPermianTriassicJurassicCretaciousPaleoceneEoceneOligoceneMiocenePliocenePleistoceneHolocene

Earliest fossil record of life

Plate Tectonics

Fig. 15.8, p. 462

Geologic Record

Fig. 15.10, p. 463

A. Glacial ice volume from deep-sea sediment oxygen isotope analysis

B. Temperature variation from ice core oxygen isotope analysis

The Last Glacial Maximum

Fig. 15.9, p. 463

Occurred 20-18 thousand years ago

Glacial/Interglacial Climatic Episodes

Fig. 15.11, p. 464

Younger Dryas

Lessons of the Climate Past• Climate is inherently variable over a large

range of time scales (years, decades, centuries, millennia)

• Variations in climate are geographically non-uniform in both sign (direction) and magnitude

• Climate change may consist of a long-term trend in various climate elements and/or a change in the frequency of extreme weather events

Lessons of the Climate Past (cont’d)• Climate change tends to be abrupt rather than

gradual (change is faster than duration)• Only a few cyclical variations can be discerned

from the long-term climate recordRegular cycles: diurnal and seasonal variations,

incoming solar radiationQuasi-regular variations: El Niño, Holocene

millennial-scale fluctuations, major glacial-interglacial shifts

• Climate change impacts society