campaigns and elections

Campaigns and Elections

Elections in America

• Presidential elections: held every 4 years on the first Tuesday in November

• Congressional elections: held every two years on the first Tuesday in November

Elections in America

• The Constitution gives states control over elections in within their borders

• Localities typically administer elections

• Elections are overseen by state regulators

Types of Elections

Types of Elections

• Three types of elections:– Primary– General– Runoff

Types of Elections

• Primaries– Parties choose the candidates who will run in the

general elections– States can also hold caucuses, in which members

meet and vote in the open

Types of Elections

• General elections– Determine who gets to hold office– Typically draws the most voters

• Runoff elections– If a candidate does not win a majority in the

general election, some states hold a runoff between the two highest vote-getters

Types of Elections

• Referenda– 24 states allow citizens to vote on law directly

through holding a referendum– Held at the same time as an election

Criteria for Winning

• Majority vote: to win, the candidate must receive at least 50% of the votes, plus one

• Plurality vote (aka first-past-the-post): the candidate with the greatest number of votes wins

Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts

• Congressional and state legislative districts are typically drawn every 10 years in a process known as redistricting– Most districts are gerrymandered to serve a

particular group’s interest

Electoral Districts

• Gerrymandering– Packing: ramming many voters of one party into a

district to dilute their votes in other districts– Cracking: tearing up dense pockets of party voters

to dilute their votes in that district– Stacking: merging two districts of the same party

to force incumbents to run against each other

Chapter Warm Up

• One person , one vote• Spilt ticket• Rhetoric, narrative, ideology• Proportional representation• cracking, stacking and packing• Butterfly ballot• Smoke filled rooms• Legal gerrymandering• Styles of campaigns

Electoral Districts

The Campaign Narrative

• The formula: What is the problem? Who are the villains? Who are the victims? Who are the heroes? What is the common sense solution?

• Republican narrative: heroes, villains, victims, common sense solutions.

• Democratic narrative: heroes, villains, victims, common sense solutions.

Electoral Districts

• Congressional districts should be contiguous, compact, and consistent with existing political subdivisions

• Race can no longer be the deciding criterion

Ballots

• Ballots can take many forms, and each state makes its own.

• Some differences among states are:– Party line voting– Electors, not the candidates’ names, listed first– Party affiliations not listed– Voting machines, paper ballots, punch cards, or

touch screens

Electoral College

• Because the average citizen was not trusted to make the right decision in voting for president, the Founders created the Electoral College system.

• Even today, citizens do not vote for president, but rather for electors.

Electoral College

• Each state has a number of electors equal to its number of U.S. Representatives and Senators

• All states but Maine, Massachusetts and Nebraska allocate all electors to the popular vote winner

Distribution of Electoral Votes in the 2008 Election

WHO ARE AMERICANS?

Chapter 10

WHO SUPPORTED OBAMA IN 2008?

WHO ARE AMERICANS?

Who Supported Obama in 2008?

Election Results by State Population

SOURCE: Mark Newman, “Maps of the 2008 US presidential election results,” www.personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/ (accessed 7/8/10).

John McCain (R)

Barack Obama (D)

WHO ARE AMERICANS?

Who Supported Obama in 2008?

Election Results by State Electoral College Votes

SOURCE: Mark Newman, “Maps of the 2008 US presidential election results,” www.personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/ (accessed 7/8/10).

Demographics as Destiny?

Electoral College

• The electors vote at their respective state capitols the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December.

• If no candidate has a majority of the electoral votes, the House decides the result, with each state getting one vote.

American Campaign Techniques Conquer the World

Election Campaigns

• Campaigns: efforts by political candidates and their supporters to win the backing of donors, political activists, and voters in their quest for political office.

Election Campaigns

• The first step is to allow candidates to start raising money and accepting donations.

• Two methods:– form an exploratory committee– file papers announcing candidacy

Election Campaigns

• Staffing

Election Campaigns

• Primaries– Personality clash: candidates’ policies are roughly

the same– Ideological struggle: candidates’ policies differ

dramatically

The 2008 Primaries

Presidential Elections

• Parties select their presidential candidates by delegates sent from each state– GOP: winner-takes-all– DEM: proportional to state vote share

• Most states hold primaries, but some hold caucuses

Presidential Elections

• The primary season is earlier each election

• States seek to be influential by voting early

• Some states with late primaries are debating abandoning them

Presidential Elections

• Early conventions selected the candidates themselves– Primaries and caucuses were non-binding– Deals were cut in “smoke-filled rooms”– Party leaders wanted to determine candidates

Presidential Elections

• Contemporary party conventions– Ratify the decisions made in primaries– Enact any new rules for future delegate selection– Draft party platforms– Present candidates and the party platforms to

voters

The General Election

General Election Campaign

• Labor-intensive v. media-intensive campaigns– Labor-driven campaigns

• Volunteers campaigning door-to-door

– Media-intensive campaigns• Goal is to get media attention• Few volunteers, lots of fundraising

The Age of the Talk Show Campaign

General Election Campaign

• Free Media v. Paid Media– Free media: coverage by the press and visits to

talk shows• Reach wide audiences• Can be unpredictable

– Paid media: advertisements purchased by campaigns

• Expensive• Message is controlled

Average House and Senate Campaign Expenditures, 1980–2008

Campaigns & Political Equality

• Labor-intensive campaigns allow those at the bottom of the SES to have some influence on a campaign

• As campaigns become more paid media-intensive, candidates must focus on voters capable of donating large sums

How Voters Decide

• Three main factors– Partisan loyalty– Issues and policy concerns– Candidate characteristics

Influence Campaigns and ElectionsBefore You Cast Your Vote

How Voters Decide

• Most voters who identify with a party vote for that party’s presidential candidate

Consumer Confidence and Presidential Elections

How Voters Decide

• Issues are only relevant if candidates take differing stances on key issues– A healthy economic can greatly help incumbents,

especially presidents

How Voters Decide

• Candidate Characteristics– Voters tend to prefer candidates who they see as

having characteristics similar to their own

Federal Campaign Finance Regulation

Figures for 2010

Averages

Presidential Averages 2000 v 2008

Historical Pattern

Sources of Campaign Funds

Public Funding

Top Donors to 527 Committees, 2008

Implications for Democracy

Public Opinion Poll

Which electoral system do you believe is best?

a) A plurality system

b) A proportional representation system

Public Opinion Poll

Do you believe it is appropriate to use race and ethnicity as criteria for drawing legislative district boundaries?

a) Yes

b) No

Public Opinion Poll

Do you believe the Democratic and Republican Parties should adopt a national primary to select their party’s presidential nominees?

a) Yes

b) No

Public Opinion Poll

Do you think presidential candidate appearances on talk shows contribute to a more informed electorate?

a) Yes

b) No

Public Opinion Poll

Do you believe the Internet has made electoral campaigns more democratic, less democratic, or has had no effect?

a) More democratic

b) Less democratic

c) No effect

Public Opinion Poll

Do you believe American political campaigns help voters make decisions, or do they produce more confusion than enlightenment?

a) Help voters make decisions

b) Produce more confusion

Public Opinion Poll

Do you support or oppose laws requiring voters to produce photo identification at the polls?

a) Strongly oppose

b) Oppose

c) Support

d) Strongly support

Public Opinion Poll

Do you believe there should be limits on the amount of money candidates can spend on campaigns?

a) Yes

b) No

Public Opinion Poll

Do you believe there should be limits on the amount of money individuals can contribute to campaigns?

a) Yes

b) No

Chapter 10: Campaigns and Elections

• Quizzes

• Flashcards

• Outlines

• Exercises

wwnorton.com/wtp8e

Spot Review Warm Up

• Prospective, retrospective voting• Narrative• Earned media• Momentum• Contextual factors• Importance of independent and swing voters• Early primaries/caucus - why?• 527’s (501’s)• Super PAC

Following this slide, you will find additional images, figures, and tables from the textbook.

The 2008 Presidential Election Season

The Convention

Electing the President: Steps in the Process

The Electoral College

The General Election Campaign and High-Tech Politics

The General Election Campaign and High-Tech Politics

The 2008 and 2010 Elections

The 2010 Elections

The 2010 Elections