Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

Chapter 7-9: Elections and CampaignsTypes of electionsPrimary / CaucusDesigned to choose the parties nomineeExample: Romney, Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum competing to be Republican nominee for 2012

Types:Closed: must declare in advance that you are a member of the party to take part in this electionAbout 40 states (why? )Open: on primary election day you pick which parties primary you will vote on8 states Blanket: can vote in primaries for both partiesWashington & AlaskaGeneral Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold officeExample: Obama vs. RomneyHon .Clay Henry III of Lajitas , TexasTypes of ElectionsPrimary / CaucusHow to get on the ballot in NJ (each state is different) It is estimated to cost about $50 million to run a successful primary/caucus campaign (Romney spent $110 million)In the past 3 decades, in almost every case, the candidate who raised the most money during this stage in the process won their partys nominationWhat is a Caucus? (Little Vid action- 3:47)19 statesWhy do most states hold primaries?Cs are too time consuming!!!!About 10% turnoutPrimaries / CaucusesSo where does that $ go? Organization Fundraisers , Accountants , Press secretary , Scheduler , Speech writers , TV and internet advertising specialist , Pollsters , Direct mailing company & Social media specialists Helps to win Iowa Caucus and N. H. Primary First two states to vote (Iowa caucus/ N.H. Primary)Early media attentionIndication of other states to followonly 2 candidates in the past 10 elections have lost both and gone on to win their partys nominationG. W. Bush in 2000 Clinton in 1992Primaries / CaucusesNeed to motivate voters to turn out for youPrimary turnout lowAbout 20%This results in candidates trying to appeal to the base of their party while also looking ahead to general electionFLIP FLOP EFFECT!!! (Sorry Romney)-incumbent advantage..why??Republicans: need to appear conservativeDemocrats: need to appear liberalDuring the general election candidates generally return to more moderate stances, must remember what you say during primary/ caucus season will be used by your opponentCan result in Clothespin voting

Presidential Primaries / CaucusesWhen voting in a P/C you are actually selecting delegates who will attend the partys National Convention to demonstrate support for that candidate. Much like the electoral college

The Partys decide the rules, they are not in the Constitution or state law, the partys can change the rules prior to an election. Democrats award delegates proportionally in all statesRepublicans allow the state to decide if they want a winner take all system or a proportional systemNJ = winner take all

General Presidential vs. General Congressional CampaignsPresidentialMore voters participateTypically about 60% turnout since 1964More party turnoverPast 20 electionsRepublicans 9 timesDemocrats 11 timesCongressionalLess voter turn-out, especially during midterm elections (non-presidential election years 2002,2006, 2010..)Typically about 36% turnout since 1964Historically less party turnover(recent exceptions include 2006 and 2010) Why less turnover?!? Incumbency advantageMore direct connection to the voter (service to constituents) Separate themselves from the mess in WashingtonSophomore surge: can use perks of office to get elected

7Presidential ElectionsWho does the public prefer?Most candidates have experience in multiple areas listed below

Presidential ElectionTheme?A simple ,appealing idea that can be repeated over and over and over and over and over (you get it)Obama: ForwardRomney: We cant afford 4 more yearsIf you are an incumbent, you will invariably have to defend your recordTone? Positive?Build me up Negative?Knock them downOverall theme and campaign: How Barack Obama Won in Lanahan9Negative CampaigningJefferson and AdamsDaisyWilly Horton

From Going Dirty in Lanahan: Negative Campaigning

10Timing?Start too early and you may go broke, too late and you may not build up enough momentum or name recognition Targets?Who are the undecided in this election? How will you sway them?Use precise targeting / micro-targetingNew demographics(see next slide)

Targets: DemographicsNeed to focus on these voters and mobilize them!!!! CAN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY EVER RECOVER????What groups are Republicans going to have to reach out to to win the next presidential election ? How can the Republicans appeal to women and Latinos without changing their core beliefs?

Presidential ElectionsWhat types of issues will the candidate focus on?Position: rival parties take different stancesTaxation: Obama : increase taxes on wealthy to help pay down debtRomney: decrease tax rate for all to help struggling economyValence: how closely a party/candidate is connected with a conceptNixon: associated with a tough stance on crimeReagan: more associated with a strong economy

Little review:What is the difference between a primary, caucus, and general election?What are the three types of primaries? What are the advantages and disadvantages of each?Why is the Iowa caucus and NH primary so important?Why does the incumbent have an advantage in the general election?What government experience is the most important to have when running in the presidential general election? What do the voters like?Presidential ElectionsWho is going to be your Vice President?Need to pick someone who will appeal to a part of the party you may not appeal to balance the ticket Youth / ExperienceRegional Moderate / Conservative or LiberalUnify party after bitter primary

Presidential ElectionsHow will you advertise your candidate?TVDebatesDirect MailInternet

General Election and the Electoral CollegeHOW TO VOTE

Electoral College: 538 electors in total (100+435+3) , need 270Meet on the first Monday after the 2nd Wednesday in December votes sent to Congress counted during a joint sessionHow are electors chosen?What happens if there is a tie? (1825)election of 1800: Jefferson v. Adams12th amendment: Electors vote on separate ballot for president and VP to avoid rivals holding office together Electoral CollegeProsAllows for both people and states to be represented : FederalismExtended RepublicNeed to appeal to a variety of voters, not just one faction or region

ConsDoesnt always reflect the will of the peopleCan have faithless electorsDoesnt reflect the idea of 1 person, 1 voteWyoming has one "elector" for every 177,556 people and Texas has one "elector" for about every 715,499.

Mass Media Problem.Patriotocracy (END time 58:00-48:00)How has the internet influenced popular opinion?Social media?What has happened to traditional news reports on television in comparing today with 20-30 years ago?What has happened to objectivity?Is this good for our republic?Should we limit the first amendment right and be more responsible in news reporting?

Little Research--- OOO YEAH!!DUE TUESDAY!!! Find 2 Articles on your assigned topic, READ them and PRINT them out!!!Research one of the topics listed below:(1) Bank War Jackson vs. 2nd Bank of US(2) Tillman Act(3) Federal Corrupt Practices Act(4) Hatch Act(5) The Smith-Connally Act and the Taft-Hartley Act(6) FECA- Federal Election Campaign Act(7) Buckley v. Valeo(8) Bi-Partisan Campaign Reform Act(9) Randall v. Sorrell(10) Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission

With your partner(s)Topic NameDate:List important points the class needs to know!!!(optional) Questions for me and/or class.The Numbers for Campaign FinancingThere are two things that are important in politics.The first is money and I cant remember what the second one is.Ohio political boss and U.S. Senator Mark Hanna, 1895

2012 presidential race!A report by the Center for Responsive Politics places the total cost of the 2012 elections at an estimated $6 billion, which would make it the most expensive election in U.S. history

Sources of FundingPrivateSmall contributors- those who give $5 or $10 (10 %)Wealthy individuals- fat cats- can afford large donations and find it to be in their best interestCandidates themselves- Ross Perot record of $65 million of his own money for 1992 electionPolitical Action Committees- PACs- special interest groups which have a major stake in public policyTemporary organizations- groups formed for the immediate purposes of a campaignfund-raisingSpring up at every electionPublicSubsidy- public- grant of money from the government from state or federal treasury.

Why do people give?Strong belief in the partyWant access to govGive to both sides in some casesWant appointments to public officeSome just want to know who is in officeRegulating Campaign FinanceFederal Election Campaign Act (FECA) of 1971-FECA amendments 74 and 76Earliest laws were not ENFORCEDWritten in response to Watergate in 72Congress does NOT have authority to regulate state elections- some regulate better than othersCreated the FEC (Federal Election Commission)

FEC- Four broad areas of enforcementRequire the timely disclosure of campaign finance dataReports are very detailedNo individual or group can make a contribution in the name of anotherNo foreign moneyAll contributions must be made through single campaign committeePlace limits on contributionsno person can give more than $1,000 in primary or general electionno person can give a PAC $5,000 or $20,000 to a national party committee- NO MORE THAN $25,000 in any year total to candidate and committee at federal level

FEC- Four broad areas of enforcementPAC CONTRIBUTIONSPolitical Action Committees (PACs) (statistics)-special-interest groups that have a major stake in public policy. PACs, which have grown rapidly in recent years.Corporations and labor unions can NOT contribute to any candidate running for a federal officePACs can howeverPACS todayEmilys list- goal to get more women in congressGet contributions from members- bundle all money and donate to candidate they like bestNo PAC can give more than $5,000 to any fed cand or $10,000 per election cycle

FEC- Four broad areas of enforcementLimits on expendituresFirst began to limit fed camp. Spending in 1925Buckley v. Valeo1976Struck down several spending limits set by the FECA 74Unconstitutional first amendment free speech-money is speechThrew outLimited campaign expenditures by candidates running for seats in the House or SenateLimited how much of their own money candidates could put into their own campaignsNo person or group could spend more than $1,000 on behalf of any federal candidate without that candidates permissionCandidates who do NOT take take FEC subsidies are not bound by those limits placed upon.

FEC- Four broad areas of enforcementProvide public funding (subsidies)Began with Revenue act 1971Presidential election campaign fundPreconvention CampaignsTo be eligible, you must raise $100,000 from individuals5,000 increments and 20 different statesFEC will match the first $250 of each individuals donationFEC does NOT match contributions of PACsNational ConventionsIf a major party applies for the money, it receives a grant to pay for its national conventionTwo parties receive millions for conventionPresidential Election Campaigns- every major party qualifies for a public subsidy to cover the costs for general election

LOOPHOLES!!! more loop hole than law- LBJ on the fed campaign finance lawSoft money- fed law neither limits nor requires the reporting of itIncludes those contributions made to state and local party orgs for such party building activities as voter registration and get out the vote drives, party mailings and advertisements, and similar effortsWealthy individuals, many PACs, etc.Hard money- money subject to regulation by the FEC.Independent Campaign Spending (expenditures)- one that participates in a campaign entirely on its own, with no connection to a candidate or party involved in that election.Buckley v. Valeo- Money is speechIssue ads- Can spend as much as you want as long as you dont say vote for Joe or Vote against Sue

PACs and Super PACsWhat are super pacs? (2 minute video)Super PACs may not contribute directly to candidates campaign or to political parties but instead spend money independent of a political campaign to influence the result. In addition, they can raise funds from corporations, unions and other groups, and from individuals, without legal limits. According to FEC rules, Super PACs are not allowed to cooperate, consult, or act in concert with a candidate or their agents or a political party or its agents.They can , however, publically declare support for one candidate or another. List of current Super PACs

Presidential Campaign SpendingShort musical on the influence of pacs and super pacsReview BasicsCan doCant doPACs (1940s)

NRAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3M7cTb68_I Hard moneyOnly purpose is to get a candidate electedDonate directly to a candidate(s)Donate directly to a campaign. Must disclose donorsEndorse a candidateAccept more than $5,000 in individual donations , cant donate more than $5,000 to an individual candidateSuper PACs (2010)Restore our Futurehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4uTKnhjH1M&feature=relmfu

Soft MoneyDesigned to promote a candidate and/or specific issues during an election

Accept unlimited donations from individuals and /or labor unions and corps., endorse a specific candidate , support issues, must disclose donors Donate to or work with an individual candidate or a political party527sEmilys ListCitizens Unitedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPfr4GvJG1g

Soft moneyOnly purpose is to promote issues during an election, turning into Super-PACs

Accept unlimited donations from individuals and corporations (as a result of citizens), support an issue , must disclose donors actually support a candidate : basically cant say vote for x donate to a candidate501 (c) (4) s

Crossroads gps , NAACPhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT8xAlxKV-w

Soft money / Dark MoneySocial welfare organization that can use some of its funds to promote issues

Accept unlimited donations from individuals and corporations , support an issue , dont need to disclose donors spend more than 50% of organizations wealth on educating people on issues during a campaign actually support a candidate : basically cant say vote for x donate to a candidate

BRCA / McCain Feingold (2002)Labor Unions and corporations cant fund ads, limits on attack ads prior to electionsLimits on how much $ could be given to PACs and how much PACs could give to candidates and political parties

Citizens United5-4 ruling by SCOTUSCorporations and Labor Unions are allowed to give unlimited monetary contributions to outside spending groups (527s, 501c4s), the ruling was based on the 1st amendment rights of these organizations (freedom of political speech)Labor Unions and Corporations can use general funds to create ads to support candidates or issues Cannot directly donate to a candidateNo restrictions on when negative ads funded by outside groups can air on TVWas 30 days before a primary, 60 days before a general election

Thoughts on Citizens ruling?

Frontline: Big Sky, Big MoneyDay 1: How much money has been spent on ads in the Senate race in Montana? What % has come from outside groups? Do you think that this statistic matters?( be specific)How do 501 c4s and Super PACs differ?Why may an individual / corporation / labor union rather contribute to a 501 c4?Define magic words, give a few examples.

http://video.pbs.org/video/2298009584/ link to video

Big Sky, Big Money Day 2:Jim Bopp, Jr. contends that the anonymity that 501c4s provide donors is beneficial to the political process. Do you agree or disagree? Why?In the case of Montana v. WTP:What are the issues?How does the Montana Supreme Court rule?Ultimately how does SCOTUS rule?After viewing the film answer the following question in 5-8 sentences citing specific examples from the filmDoes having less restrictions on 501c4s impede or enhance our electoral process?Questions to consider when reflecting on campaign finance regulationsShould there be any limits on what candidates and political parties can spend during a campaign (hard money)?Should there be any limits on what independent (outside ) expenditure groups (501c4s, 527s, Super PACs) can spend (soft money) ?Citizens United declared that corporations and labor unions have the same rights to political free speech as individuals. Do you agree?Can you just allow corporations or labor unions to have political personhood? Should there be any media restrictions on the number and/or frequency of ads any entity can produce?Should 501c4s have to disclose donors? Should 527s, 501c4s, and Super PACS be able to coordinate with candidates?Do these groups actually allow for more groups (factions) to be represented? (Would Madison approve?) Do you think these groups may allow for 3rd party candidates to be viable candidates for office?

Campaign Finance: Public FundingThe Federal Election Commission began public funding in 1976. Eligible Presidential candidates use federal funds in their primary and general election campaigns, and the major parties used public funds to pay for their nominating conventions. Candidates are eligible to get $20 mil from the government and can spend up to $50,000 of their own $, the total limit for 2012 was $91.5 millionA candidate could raise $70 million and spend that as well.Where does the $ come from?The U.S. Treasury makes the actual payments from the Presidential Election Campaign Fund. This fund consists of dollars voluntarily checked off by taxpayers on their federal income tax returns. To be eligible the candidate: Must be a member of a political partyMust show broad based support by raising at least $5,000 in at least 20 states (100,000)

http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/pubfund.shtml#anchor684182 Any Current Movements for Reformwww.wolf-pac.com)