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Sales Forecasting
by MAHSINA, SE, MSi,.
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Universitas Bhayangkara (UBHARA)
SURABAYA
The Functions of Management
George R Terry L.F Orwick
Planning
Organizing
Actuating
Controlling
Forecasting
Planning
Organizing
Commanding
Coordinating
Controlling
The Activity Process of forecasting the
future sales in a certain circumstances and
created base on the past data
SALES FORECAST
2 (TWO) METHOD
Qualitative Method Quantitative Method
Qualitative method
SALES STAFF OPINION METHOD MANAGERS DIVISION OPINION METHOD Executive Opinion Method Expert Opinion Method Consumer Survey Method
SALES STAFF OPINION
METHOD
STRENGTH WEAKNESSES
Putting the Responsibility
and Senses Of Belonging
Forecasting is made by the
individual who directly
connected by Consumer
Initial plans is approved by
the authorized person who
responsible to the Target
Sales
Over Optimistic/
Pessimistic on Sales
Forecasting
The variables is too narraw
Limited to Short Term of
Tactical Sales forecasting
MANAGER DIVISION
OPINION METHOD
STRENGTH WEAKNESSES
Applicable for all
companies of all size
Good to those company
who has limited Sales Staff
Need a special experience
and wide knowledge
Provide forecasting that
less accountable
EXECUTIVE OPINION
METHOD
STRENGTH WEAKNESSES
Simply, directly and
economically
Need a special experience
and wide knowledge
Provide forecasting that
less accountable
CONSUMER OPINION
METHOD
STRENGTH WEAKNESSES
Objective Research apply to only
sample not all the
consumers
QUANTITATIVE
METHOD TREND OF STRAIGTH LINE METHOD (Least Square Method) (Moment Method) NON OF STRAIGTH LINE METHOD Parabol Square Method Exponential Trend Method Changeable Exponential Method
QUANTITATIVE
METHOD
PRODUCT LINE ANALYSIS On a Sales Forecasting whether strategical or tactical should include
temporary decision for the introduced new product line, old path of
product line would be removed, its innovation and mix product
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION METHOD PDM is use to forecast the sales by using the assessment related with product variance sold TREND ANALYSIS Trend Analysis is a kind of statistical tools in order to forecast the sales REGRESSION ANALYSIS Regression analysis is also kind of statistical tools that often use to forecast the sales
Expected
Amount
Define the probability
is depending to the
management
assessment
Trend
Trend is a long term slow motion and
lean to one direction (increase or
decrease) in a data time series
Least Square Method
Example
We also define a by the following formulations:
Let’s insert data to define b with the following formulations:
Therefore, the equation of trend of straight line of Y = a + bX
Whereas = the forecasting of sales on 2016 = 132 + 10(5)
= 182 units
Therefore, the equation of trend of straight line of Y = a + bX
Whereas = the forecasting of sales on 2016 = 157,5 + 4,5(5)
= 180 units
Other Formulations
How if the data ‘number of n’ is odd ??
Therefore, the equation of trend of straight line of Y = a + bX
Whereas = the forecasting of sales on 2016 = 157,5 + 4,5(5)
= 180 units
Moment Method
Sales forecasting using moment method with the
following formulations :
Elimination Method
Substitution
Method
Elimination method:
b
Substitution method:
Therefore, the equation of Moment Method a =Ȳ– X̅
= 152 – 10 x 2
= 152 – 20
= 132 Therefore, the equation of trend of straight line of Y = a + bX
Whereas = the forecasting of sales on 2016 = 132 + 10(5)
= 182 units
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