Sales Forecasting

by MAHSINA, SE, MSi,.

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Universitas Bhayangkara (UBHARA)

SURABAYA

The Functions of Management

George R Terry L.F Orwick

Planning

Organizing

Actuating

Controlling

Forecasting

Planning

Organizing

Commanding

Coordinating

Controlling

The Activity Process of forecasting the

future sales in a certain circumstances and

created base on the past data

SALES FORECAST

2 (TWO) METHOD

Qualitative Method Quantitative Method

Qualitative method

SALES STAFF OPINION METHOD MANAGERS DIVISION OPINION METHOD Executive Opinion Method Expert Opinion Method Consumer Survey Method

SALES STAFF OPINION

METHOD

STRENGTH WEAKNESSES

Putting the Responsibility

and Senses Of Belonging

Forecasting is made by the

individual who directly

connected by Consumer

Initial plans is approved by

the authorized person who

responsible to the Target

Sales

Over Optimistic/

Pessimistic on Sales

Forecasting

The variables is too narraw

Limited to Short Term of

Tactical Sales forecasting

MANAGER DIVISION

OPINION METHOD

STRENGTH WEAKNESSES

Applicable for all

companies of all size

Good to those company

who has limited Sales Staff

Need a special experience

and wide knowledge

Provide forecasting that

less accountable

EXECUTIVE OPINION

METHOD

STRENGTH WEAKNESSES

Simply, directly and

economically

Need a special experience

and wide knowledge

Provide forecasting that

less accountable

CONSUMER OPINION

METHOD

STRENGTH WEAKNESSES

Objective Research apply to only

sample not all the

consumers

QUANTITATIVE

METHOD TREND OF STRAIGTH LINE METHOD (Least Square Method) (Moment Method) NON OF STRAIGTH LINE METHOD Parabol Square Method Exponential Trend Method Changeable Exponential Method

QUANTITATIVE

METHOD

PRODUCT LINE ANALYSIS On a Sales Forecasting whether strategical or tactical should include

temporary decision for the introduced new product line, old path of

product line would be removed, its innovation and mix product

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION METHOD PDM is use to forecast the sales by using the assessment related with product variance sold TREND ANALYSIS Trend Analysis is a kind of statistical tools in order to forecast the sales REGRESSION ANALYSIS Regression analysis is also kind of statistical tools that often use to forecast the sales

Expected

Amount

Define the probability

is depending to the

management

assessment

Trend

Trend is a long term slow motion and

lean to one direction (increase or

decrease) in a data time series

Least Square Method

Example

We also define a by the following formulations:

Let’s insert data to define b with the following formulations:

Therefore, the equation of trend of straight line of Y = a + bX

Whereas = the forecasting of sales on 2016 = 132 + 10(5)

= 182 units

Therefore, the equation of trend of straight line of Y = a + bX

Whereas = the forecasting of sales on 2016 = 157,5 + 4,5(5)

= 180 units

Other Formulations

How if the data ‘number of n’ is odd ??

Therefore, the equation of trend of straight line of Y = a + bX

Whereas = the forecasting of sales on 2016 = 157,5 + 4,5(5)

= 180 units

Moment Method

Sales forecasting using moment method with the

following formulations :

Elimination Method

Substitution

Method

Elimination method:

b

Substitution method:

Therefore, the equation of Moment Method a =Ȳ– X̅

= 152 – 10 x 2

= 152 – 20

= 132 Therefore, the equation of trend of straight line of Y = a + bX

Whereas = the forecasting of sales on 2016 = 132 + 10(5)

= 182 units