alan de brauw aspb talk
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Barriers to Agricultural Technology Adoption in Developing Countries, and the Potential Role of Biofortification
Alan de BrauwMarkets Trade and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute and Flagship Leader, Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (CGIAR)
How can we better nourish 9 billion?
Food availability is not a problem, nor is it likely to be In fact, there is a great deal of untapped agricultural
potential in specific regions Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia, Cambodia
More important is what kind of food will be available More nutritious crops need to be more available More nutritious crops now include biofortified crops–
staple crops bred for additional micronutrients
Major Grain Availability in the World, 2012
CropTotal
Production(MMT)
Daily Calories per Capita
Rice 720 1014
Wheat 670 865
Maize 872 1092
TOTAL 2971
Data from FAOStat; assumed population of 7 billion
Even with plenty of calorie “availability”… Untapped Productivity Potential in Several Parts of the
World But at current price levels and trends there is a large
underinvestment in more nutritious foods
Untapped Productivity: Evidence on Average Yields (t/ha)
Maize Rice Wheat
World 4.9 4.4 3.1
Africa 2.0 2.5 2.4
South Asia 2.7 3.5 2.8
Data from FAO Stat
Untapped Productivity in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere
AGO
ALB ARGARM
ATG
AUS
AUT
AZE
BDI
BEL
BENBFA
BGDBGR
BHS
BIHBLR
BLZBOL
BRA
BRBBTN
BWA
CAF
CANCHECHL
CHN
CIVCMR
COG
COLCOM
CPV
CRI
CUB
CZEDEU
DJIDMADOM
DZA
ECU
EGYESP
ETH
FJI
FRA
FSM
GABGEO
GHA
GMBGNB
GRC
GRD
GTMGUYHND
HRV
HTI
HUN
IDN
IND
IRN
IRQ
ISR
ITA
JAM
JOR
JPN
KAZ
KEN
KGZ
KHMKORLAO
LBN
LBYLKA
LSO
LTU
LUX
MAR
MDG
MDV MEX
MKD
MLI
MOZMRT
MUS
MWI
MYS
NAM
NER
NGA
NIC
NLD
NPL
NZL
PAK
PAN
PERPHL
PNGPOL PRT
PRY
ROMRUS
RWA
SAU
SDNSEN
SLE
SLV
SRB
SUR
SVKSVN
SWZ
SYR
TGO
THA
TJK
TKM
TMP
TTO
TUR
TZAUGA
UKR
URY
USA
UZB
VCTVENVNM
VUT
YEM
ZAF
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
89
1011
12Lo
garit
hm, A
vera
ge M
aize
Yie
ld, 2
009
4 6 8 10 12Logarithm, GDP per Capita, 2009
From recent National Geographic
How to improve agricultural technology adoption?
World Agricultural production is not close to reaching its potential Particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa
Even without any new technology, world production could be much higher Need is to induce farmers to switch from traditional
varieties of crops to modern varieties But how?
Question 1: Is it profitable for farmers to grow modern varieties? Suri (2011) built a framework allowing
heterogenous returns to growing hybrids, finds: Group of farmers with high potential
returns, not growing hybrids, but high cost of obtaining seeds and fertilizer (so they don’t)
Another group with positive but lower returns grows hybrids
Others do not grow hybrids all the time, have essentially zero returns
New question: how can modern varieties be made profitable for smallholder farmers?
10 Challenges for Adoption(ATAI)1. Lack of Information2. Risk and Uncertainty3. Lack of Finance4. Labor Market Problems5. Land Market Problems
6. Externalities7. Coordination Failures8. Distribution Problems9. Lack of
appropriateness10.Distorted Prices
Technologies not Appropriate
Farmers may have different preferences than policy-makers/breeders Policy makers may be too risk averse in approving new
Available technology may not be right for marginal land, etc. Profits may actually be variable to higher yielding
varieties of appropriate crops Taste, cultivation attributes may also matter
Can potentially include drought/heat resistance
Intervention Ideas : Appropriate Technologies More Participatory Breeding? (Walker, 2008)
But lack of evidence this could be cost effective Need to consider gender in developing interventions for
appropriate technologies Women often lack same access to improved seeds, inputs
(even within households in west Africa) Difficult to predict the gender distributional consequences of
new technologies targeted to women (e.g. von Braun, 1989) May be a need for different types of technologies as well
Average Yield Increases, Selected Crops (1961=100)
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
50
100
150
200
250
300
Maize Dry Peas Vegetables Rice
Percent Changes in Cereal and Pulse Production, and in Population, 1965-1999
050
100150200
250
Indi
a
Paki
stan
Bang
lade
sh
Dev
elop
ing
Indi
a
Paki
stan
Bang
lade
sh
Dev
elop
ing
Wor
ld
Dev
elop
ing
Grains Pulses Population
Evidence: Shares of daily calorie consumption by food groups
Ideal US China Bangladesh
Starchy Staples
48 31 49 80
Legumes & Nuts
22 5 3 4
Animal & Fish Products
10 14 20 4
Fruits & Vegetables
9 7 9 2
Fats & Sugars
11 43 19 10
Total Calories 2200 Too many Too many Too fewSource for “Ideal” shares: Thompson and Meerman, FAO, 2013
New Idea: Value Chains for Enhanced Nutrition Idea: Intervene in Value Chains to improve the
consumption of nutritious crops Legumes; Vegetables/Fruits; Animal Source Foods
Income increases are not sufficient to improve diet Policies sometimes promote production of grains at
the expense of healthier products Interventions should work through prices
(reductions); income; or information Should consider food safety as intervention is designed
if warranted
Inputs FarmerBuyers
(Middlemen), Processors,
SellersConsumer
Value Chain
Financing
Possible Interventions
Value Chains for Enhanced Nutrition: Example IFPRI Project: Laiterie du Berger (LB) in St Louis, Senegal buys milk
from semi-nomadic herders in northern Senegal to produce yogurt and a fortified yogurt product called Thiakry
Milk availability is seasonal– LB has to import powder to make Thiakry
Population producing yogurt is highly anemic To try to regularize milk collection and improve iron status of
population, an intervention offered Thiakry for children when specific producers met collection targets Preliminary result: Reduced anemia by 11 percentage points but
not clear it is cost effective
New Technology: Biofortification
Idea Behind Biofortification (HarvestPlus): Breed essential micronutrients (vitamin A, iron, zinc) right into staple crops Vitamin A Orange Sweet Potato (Mozambique, Uganda) High Iron Beans (Rwanda) Vitamin A Cassava (Nigeria) High Iron Pearl Millet (India) Vitamin A (Orange) Maize (Zambia) Others on the way
Lack of micronutrients greatly contributes to deaths among under 5s due to malnutrition and hinders child development
HarvestPlus release varieties should… Have enough of the target micronutrient to make a
difference in nutritional status; Be bioavailable; Yield at least as well as varieties farmers use, among
test populations; Taste good (according to local populations)
Methods: HarvestPlus REU (2006-2009)
Introduced OSP to farmers in 2007 in Mozambique and Uganda through vine distribution and sales
Accompanied by both agricultural and nutrition extension in both countries And marketing intervention to attempt to build
marketing chain Impacts measured with Randomized Control Trial;
baseline and endline; detailed dietary intake study Goal of project: Demonstrate reduction in vitamin A
deficiency in both countries
Primary Findings (2009): Vitamin A Deficiency
Mozambique
Treated Children
Control Children
Treated Mothers
Control Mothers
0 0.5 1Endline Baseline
Uganda
Treated Children
Control Children
0 0.5 1Endline Baseline
Additional Findings – “Medium Term” Surveys In Uganda, about half of those growing orange sweet
potato still growing them in 2011 In Mozambique, less success continuing to grow them
by 2012 BUT…
Also find a statistically significant difference between vitamin A intakes among one treatment group and the control in 2012 (mothers and children)
Can attribute difference to OFSP consumption
Summary and Directions for Research
Major grains are actually quite available and likely will be in 2050
However, there is need for additional investment in breeding on two levels Traditional, more nutritious crops (pulses and
legumes; vegetables) Yield gains have lagged those of major grains
Further effort on biofortified crops in future to fill in micronutrient gaps
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