Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

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This is a talk I gave as part of the "Nourishing 9 Billion" symposium at the 2014 American Society for Plant Biologists Annual Meeting in Portland, Oregon. I talked first about how major grains are actually quite available in an aggregate sense-- moreover there is plenty of unexploited capacity. A larger problem is a relative lack of availability of nutritious crops -- legumes and pulses, fruits, and vegetables, and among specific populations animal source foods. Two ideas to reduce micronutrient deficiencies, being promoted by the CGIAR program Agriculture for Nutrition and Health, are to promote nutritious crops and foods through value chains, as well as to promote micronutrient intakes through biofortification.

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<ul><li> Barriers to Agricultural Technology Adoption in Developing Countries, and the Potential Role of Biofortification Alan de Brauw Markets Trade and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute and Flagship Leader, Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (CGIAR) </li> <li> How can we better nourish 9 billion? Food availability is not a problem, nor is it likely to be In fact, there is a great deal of untapped agricultural potential in specific regions Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia, Cambodia More important is what kind of food will be available More nutritious crops need to be more available More nutritious crops now include biofortified crops staple crops bred for additional micronutrients </li> <li> Major Grain Availability in the World, 2012 Crop Total Production (MMT) Daily Calories per Capita Rice 720 1014 Wheat 670 865 Maize 872 1092 TOTAL 2971 Data from FAOStat; assumed population of 7 billion </li> <li> Even with plenty of calorie availability Untapped Productivity Potential in Several Parts of the World But at current price levels and trends there is a large underinvestment in more nutritious foods </li> <li> Untapped Productivity: Evidence on Average Yields (t/ha) Maize Rice Wheat World 4.9 4.4 3.1 Africa 2.0 2.5 2.4 South Asia 2.7 3.5 2.8 Data from FAO Stat </li> <li> Untapped Productivity in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere AGO ALB ARGARM ATG AUS AUT AZE BDI BEL BEN BFA BGD BGR BHS BIH BLR BLZBOL BRA BRB BTN BWA CAF CAN CHECHL CHN CIV CMR COG COL COM CPV CRI CUB CZE DEU DJI DMADOM DZA ECU EGY ESP ETH FJI FRA FSM GABGEO GHA GMBGNB GRC GRD GTMGUYHND HRV HTI HUN IDN IND IRN IRQ ISR ITA JAM JOR JPN KAZ KEN KGZ KHM KORLAO LBN LBYLKA LSO LTU LUX MAR MDG MDV MEX MKD MLI MOZ MRT MUS MWI MYS NAM NER NGA NIC NLD NPL NZL PAK PAN PER PHL PNG POL PRT PRY ROMRUS RWA SAU SDN SEN SLE SLV SRB SUR SVK SVN SWZ SYR TGO THA TJK TKM TMP TTO TUR TZA UGA UKR URY USA UZB VCT VENVNM VUT YEM ZAF ZAR ZMB ZWE 89 101112 Logarithm,AverageMaizeYield,2009 4 6 8 10 12 Logarithm, GDP per Capita, 2009 </li> <li> From recent National Geographic </li> <li> How to improve agricultural technology adoption? World Agricultural production is not close to reaching its potential Particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa Even without any new technology, world production could be much higher Need is to induce farmers to switch from traditional varieties of crops to modern varieties But how? </li> <li> Question 1: Is it profitable for farmers to grow modern varieties? Suri (2011) built a framework allowing heterogenous returns to growing hybrids, finds: Group of farmers with high potential returns, not growing hybrids, but high cost of obtaining seeds and fertilizer (so they dont) Another group with positive but lower returns grows hybrids Others do not grow hybrids all the time, have essentially zero returns New question: how can modern varieties be made profitable for smallholder farmers? </li> <li> 10 Challenges for Adoption (ATAI) 1. Lack of Information 2. Risk and Uncertainty 3. Lack of Finance 4. Labor Market Problems 5. Land Market Problems 6. Externalities 7. Coordination Failures 8. Distribution Problems 9. Lack of appropriateness 10. Distorted Prices </li> <li> Technologies not Appropriate Farmers may have different preferences than policy- makers/breeders Policy makers may be too risk averse in approving new Available technology may not be right for marginal land, etc. Profits may actually be variable to higher yielding varieties of appropriate crops Taste, cultivation attributes may also matter Can potentially include drought/heat resistance </li> <li> Intervention Ideas : Appropriate Technologies More Participatory Breeding? (Walker, 2008) But lack of evidence this could be cost effective Need to consider gender in developing interventions for appropriate technologies Women often lack same access to improved seeds, inputs (even within households in west Africa) Difficult to predict the gender distributional consequences of new technologies targeted to women (e.g. von Braun, 1989) May be a need for different types of technologies as well </li> <li> Average Yield Increases, Selected Crops (1961=100) 50 100 150 200 250 300 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Maize Dry Peas Vegetables Rice </li> <li> Percent Changes in Cereal and Pulse Production, and in Population, 1965-1999 0 50 100 150 200 250 India Pakistan Bangladesh Developing India Pakistan Bangladesh Developing World Developing Grains Pulses Population </li> <li> Evidence: Shares of daily calorie consumption by food groups Ideal US China Bangladesh Starchy Staples 48 31 49 80 Legumes &amp; Nuts 22 5 3 4 Animal &amp; Fish Products 10 14 20 4 Fruits &amp; Vegetables 9 7 9 2 Fats &amp; Sugars 11 43 19 10 Total Calories 2200 Too many Too many Too few Source for Ideal shares: Thompson and Meerman, FAO, 2013 </li> <li> New Idea: Value Chains for Enhanced Nutrition Idea: Intervene in Value Chains to improve the consumption of nutritious crops Legumes; Vegetables/Fruits; Animal Source Foods Income increases are not sufficient to improve diet Policies sometimes promote production of grains at the expense of healthier products Interventions should work through prices (reductions); income; or information Should consider food safety as intervention is designed if warranted </li> <li> Inputs Farmer Buyers (Middlemen) , Processors, Sellers Consumer Value Chain Financing Possible Interventions </li> <li> Value Chains for Enhanced Nutrition: Example IFPRI Project: Laiterie du Berger (LB) in St Louis, Senegal buys milk from semi-nomadic herders in northern Senegal to produce yogurt and a fortified yogurt product called Thiakry Milk availability is seasonal LB has to import powder to make Thiakry Population producing yogurt is highly anemic To try to regularize milk collection and improve iron status of population, an intervention offered Thiakry for children when specific producers met collection targets Preliminary result: Reduced anemia by 11 percentage points but not clear it is cost effective </li> <li> New Technology: Biofortification Idea Behind Biofortification (HarvestPlus): Breed essential micronutrients (vitamin A, iron, zinc) right into staple crops Vitamin A Orange Sweet Potato (Mozambique, Uganda) High Iron Beans (Rwanda) Vitamin A Cassava (Nigeria) High Iron Pearl Millet (India) Vitamin A (Orange) Maize (Zambia) Others on the way Lack of micronutrients greatly contributes to deaths among under 5s due to malnutrition and hinders child development </li> <li> HarvestPlus release varieties should Have enough of the target micronutrient to make a difference in nutritional status; Be bioavailable; Yield at least as well as varieties farmers use, among test populations; Taste good (according to local populations) </li> <li> Methods: HarvestPlus REU (2006-2009) Introduced OSP to farmers in 2007 in Mozambique and Uganda through vine distribution and sales Accompanied by both agricultural and nutrition extension in both countries And marketing intervention to attempt to build marketing chain Impacts measured with Randomized Control Trial; baseline and endline; detailed dietary intake study Goal of project: Demonstrate reduction in vitamin A deficiency in both countries </li> <li> Primary Findings (2009): Vitamin A Deficiency Mozambique 0 0.5 1 Treated Children Control Children Treated Mothers Control Mothers Endline Baseline Uganda 0 0.5 1 Treated Children Control Children Endline Baseline </li> <li> Additional Findings Medium Term Surveys In Uganda, about half of those growing orange sweet potato still growing them in 2011 In Mozambique, less success continuing to grow them by 2012 BUT Also find a statistically significant difference between vitamin A intakes among one treatment group and the control in 2012 (mothers and children) Can attribute difference to OFSP consumption </li> <li> Summary and Directions for Research Major grains are actually quite available and likely will be in 2050 However, there is need for additional investment in breeding on two levels Traditional, more nutritious crops (pulses and legumes; vegetables) Yield gains have lagged those of major grains Further effort on biofortified crops in future to fill in micronutrient gaps </li> </ul>

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