alan de brauw aspb talk

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Barriers to Agricultural Technology Adoption in Developing Countries, and the Potential Role of Biofortification Alan de Brauw Markets Trade and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute and Flagship Leader, Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (CGIAR)

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This is a talk I gave as part of the "Nourishing 9 Billion" symposium at the 2014 American Society for Plant Biologists Annual Meeting in Portland, Oregon. I talked first about how major grains are actually quite available in an aggregate sense-- moreover there is plenty of unexploited capacity. A larger problem is a relative lack of availability of nutritious crops -- legumes and pulses, fruits, and vegetables, and among specific populations animal source foods. Two ideas to reduce micronutrient deficiencies, being promoted by the CGIAR program Agriculture for Nutrition and Health, are to promote nutritious crops and foods through value chains, as well as to promote micronutrient intakes through biofortification.

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Page 1: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Barriers to Agricultural Technology Adoption in Developing Countries, and the Potential Role of Biofortification

Alan de BrauwMarkets Trade and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute and Flagship Leader, Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (CGIAR)

Page 2: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

How can we better nourish 9 billion?

Food availability is not a problem, nor is it likely to be In fact, there is a great deal of untapped agricultural

potential in specific regions Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia, Cambodia

More important is what kind of food will be available More nutritious crops need to be more available More nutritious crops now include biofortified crops–

staple crops bred for additional micronutrients

Page 3: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Major Grain Availability in the World, 2012

CropTotal

Production(MMT)

Daily Calories per Capita

Rice 720 1014

Wheat 670 865

Maize 872 1092

TOTAL 2971

Data from FAOStat; assumed population of 7 billion

Page 4: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Even with plenty of calorie “availability”… Untapped Productivity Potential in Several Parts of the

World But at current price levels and trends there is a large

underinvestment in more nutritious foods

Page 5: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Untapped Productivity: Evidence on Average Yields (t/ha)

Maize Rice Wheat

World 4.9 4.4 3.1

Africa 2.0 2.5 2.4

South Asia 2.7 3.5 2.8

Data from FAO Stat

Page 6: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Untapped Productivity in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere

AGO

ALB ARGARM

ATG

AUS

AUT

AZE

BDI

BEL

BENBFA

BGDBGR

BHS

BIHBLR

BLZBOL

BRA

BRBBTN

BWA

CAF

CANCHECHL

CHN

CIVCMR

COG

COLCOM

CPV

CRI

CUB

CZEDEU

DJIDMADOM

DZA

ECU

EGYESP

ETH

FJI

FRA

FSM

GABGEO

GHA

GMBGNB

GRC

GRD

GTMGUYHND

HRV

HTI

HUN

IDN

IND

IRN

IRQ

ISR

ITA

JAM

JOR

JPN

KAZ

KEN

KGZ

KHMKORLAO

LBN

LBYLKA

LSO

LTU

LUX

MAR

MDG

MDV MEX

MKD

MLI

MOZMRT

MUS

MWI

MYS

NAM

NER

NGA

NIC

NLD

NPL

NZL

PAK

PAN

PERPHL

PNGPOL PRT

PRY

ROMRUS

RWA

SAU

SDNSEN

SLE

SLV

SRB

SUR

SVKSVN

SWZ

SYR

TGO

THA

TJK

TKM

TMP

TTO

TUR

TZAUGA

UKR

URY

USA

UZB

VCTVENVNM

VUT

YEM

ZAF

ZAR

ZMB

ZWE

89

1011

12Lo

garit

hm, A

vera

ge M

aize

Yie

ld, 2

009

4 6 8 10 12Logarithm, GDP per Capita, 2009

Page 7: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

From recent National Geographic

Page 8: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

How to improve agricultural technology adoption?

World Agricultural production is not close to reaching its potential Particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa

Even without any new technology, world production could be much higher Need is to induce farmers to switch from traditional

varieties of crops to modern varieties But how?

Page 9: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Question 1: Is it profitable for farmers to grow modern varieties? Suri (2011) built a framework allowing

heterogenous returns to growing hybrids, finds: Group of farmers with high potential

returns, not growing hybrids, but high cost of obtaining seeds and fertilizer (so they don’t)

Another group with positive but lower returns grows hybrids

Others do not grow hybrids all the time, have essentially zero returns

New question: how can modern varieties be made profitable for smallholder farmers?

Page 10: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

10 Challenges for Adoption(ATAI)1. Lack of Information2. Risk and Uncertainty3. Lack of Finance4. Labor Market Problems5. Land Market Problems

6. Externalities7. Coordination Failures8. Distribution Problems9. Lack of

appropriateness10.Distorted Prices

Page 11: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Technologies not Appropriate

Farmers may have different preferences than policy-makers/breeders Policy makers may be too risk averse in approving new

Available technology may not be right for marginal land, etc. Profits may actually be variable to higher yielding

varieties of appropriate crops Taste, cultivation attributes may also matter

Can potentially include drought/heat resistance

Page 12: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Intervention Ideas : Appropriate Technologies More Participatory Breeding? (Walker, 2008)

But lack of evidence this could be cost effective Need to consider gender in developing interventions for

appropriate technologies Women often lack same access to improved seeds, inputs

(even within households in west Africa) Difficult to predict the gender distributional consequences of

new technologies targeted to women (e.g. von Braun, 1989) May be a need for different types of technologies as well

Page 13: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Average Yield Increases, Selected Crops (1961=100)

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

50

100

150

200

250

300

Maize Dry Peas Vegetables Rice

Page 14: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Percent Changes in Cereal and Pulse Production, and in Population, 1965-1999

050

100150200

250

Indi

a

Paki

stan

Bang

lade

sh

Dev

elop

ing

Indi

a

Paki

stan

Bang

lade

sh

Dev

elop

ing

Wor

ld

Dev

elop

ing

Grains Pulses Population

Page 15: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Evidence: Shares of daily calorie consumption by food groups

Ideal US China Bangladesh

Starchy Staples

48 31 49 80

Legumes & Nuts

22 5 3 4

Animal & Fish Products

10 14 20 4

Fruits & Vegetables

9 7 9 2

Fats & Sugars

11 43 19 10

Total Calories 2200 Too many Too many Too fewSource for “Ideal” shares: Thompson and Meerman, FAO, 2013

Page 16: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

New Idea: Value Chains for Enhanced Nutrition Idea: Intervene in Value Chains to improve the

consumption of nutritious crops Legumes; Vegetables/Fruits; Animal Source Foods

Income increases are not sufficient to improve diet Policies sometimes promote production of grains at

the expense of healthier products Interventions should work through prices

(reductions); income; or information Should consider food safety as intervention is designed

if warranted

Page 17: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Inputs FarmerBuyers

(Middlemen), Processors,

SellersConsumer

Value Chain

Financing

Possible Interventions

Page 18: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Value Chains for Enhanced Nutrition: Example IFPRI Project: Laiterie du Berger (LB) in St Louis, Senegal buys milk

from semi-nomadic herders in northern Senegal to produce yogurt and a fortified yogurt product called Thiakry

Milk availability is seasonal– LB has to import powder to make Thiakry

Population producing yogurt is highly anemic To try to regularize milk collection and improve iron status of

population, an intervention offered Thiakry for children when specific producers met collection targets Preliminary result: Reduced anemia by 11 percentage points but

not clear it is cost effective

Page 19: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

New Technology: Biofortification

Idea Behind Biofortification (HarvestPlus): Breed essential micronutrients (vitamin A, iron, zinc) right into staple crops Vitamin A Orange Sweet Potato (Mozambique, Uganda) High Iron Beans (Rwanda) Vitamin A Cassava (Nigeria) High Iron Pearl Millet (India) Vitamin A (Orange) Maize (Zambia) Others on the way

Lack of micronutrients greatly contributes to deaths among under 5s due to malnutrition and hinders child development

Page 20: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

HarvestPlus release varieties should… Have enough of the target micronutrient to make a

difference in nutritional status; Be bioavailable; Yield at least as well as varieties farmers use, among

test populations; Taste good (according to local populations)

Page 21: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Methods: HarvestPlus REU (2006-2009)

Introduced OSP to farmers in 2007 in Mozambique and Uganda through vine distribution and sales

Accompanied by both agricultural and nutrition extension in both countries And marketing intervention to attempt to build

marketing chain Impacts measured with Randomized Control Trial;

baseline and endline; detailed dietary intake study Goal of project: Demonstrate reduction in vitamin A

deficiency in both countries

Page 22: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Primary Findings (2009): Vitamin A Deficiency

Mozambique

Treated Children

Control Children

Treated Mothers

Control Mothers

0 0.5 1Endline Baseline

Uganda

Treated Children

Control Children

0 0.5 1Endline Baseline

Page 23: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Additional Findings – “Medium Term” Surveys In Uganda, about half of those growing orange sweet

potato still growing them in 2011 In Mozambique, less success continuing to grow them

by 2012 BUT…

Also find a statistically significant difference between vitamin A intakes among one treatment group and the control in 2012 (mothers and children)

Can attribute difference to OFSP consumption

Page 24: Alan de Brauw ASPB talk

Summary and Directions for Research

Major grains are actually quite available and likely will be in 2050

However, there is need for additional investment in breeding on two levels Traditional, more nutritious crops (pulses and

legumes; vegetables) Yield gains have lagged those of major grains

Further effort on biofortified crops in future to fill in micronutrient gaps