adapting livestock systems to climate change
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Adapting livestock systems to climate change in South Asia
M. Herrero, P. K. Thornton and I. Wright
Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the livestock sector28th-29th October 2010 | Kathmandu, Nepal
– Background
– Living with uncertainty
– Climate change impacts
– Adaptation options
– Conclusions
Outline
– Agriculture in South Asia is changing rapidly and there are large numbers of people to feed
– Need to try to understand how production systems will change in the future: the target is moving!
– for designing a more coherent and dynamic research and policy agenda that benefits the poor
– for targeting investments more adequately
– For reducing vulnerability and poverty
Background
Lots of drivers of future change Population / Urbanization
Growth in demand and its nature
Increased competition for natural resources
Trade / exchange of knowledge and products
Climate change – warmer and more variable
Human population
UNEP 2007
Revised demand for livestock products to 2050
Rosegrant et al 2009
Annual per capita consumption
Total consumption
year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt)
Developing 20022050
2844
4478
137326
222585
Developed 20022050
7894
202216
102126
265295
Cereal yields
Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa
World Bank 2007
Area under cultivation and rates of growth in cereal yields
World Bank 2007
Mixed intensive systems in the developing World are under significant pressures (Herrero et al. 2010)
• 2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in Asia• 150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by 2030• Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry, increasing by 30-40%
to 2030• Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice• Others increasing: maize (East Asia)• All in the same land!
• Severe water constraints in some places• Soil fertility problems in others
...and then there’s climate change...
Why is climate change so important to agriculture-based countries?
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rainfall variation around the meanGDP growth
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rainfall variation around the meanGDP growth
de Jong (2005), World Bank (2005)
Ethiopia: Rainfall Variability and Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Climate change: we need to act even when
there are still uncertainties...but the science
is improving!
2007 IPCC AR4: effects of warming evident; cost of reducing emissions far less than damage they will cause
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
MM
t C
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000Fossil fuel emissions Tropical LUC Temperate LUC
Climate change recognised long ago…
Climate change science timeline
1859Tyndall: some gases absorb IR; could drive climate change
1897 Chamberlin: model of global C exchange
1956 Phillips: 1st somewhat realistic global climate model
1938 Callendar: CO2 greenhouse global warming is underway
1896 Arrhenius: 1st calculation of anthropogenic global warming
1995 IPCC 2nd report: “signature of human activities”
1988 IPCC established; 1st report 1990
1976 Deforestation recognized as important driver of climate change
1958 Keeling: Atm. CO2 measurements begin at Mauna Loa
1930s Global warming trend since late 19th century reported
Courtesy of R. Conant
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
MM
t C
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000Fossil fuel emissions Tropical LUC Temperate LUC
But the policy frameworks have been slowly implemented
Climate policy timeline2008-2012: 1st Kyoto compliance period
2005: Kyoto into effect
2001: Marrakech accords
1997: Kyoto Protocol
1992: US Energy policy act; incl. Section 1605(b)
1992: Rio Treaty – establishes UNFCCC
A modest proposal?
Near-term implementation of a global policy that affects all parts of everyone’s lives.
Courtesy of R. Conant
Random Series gently rising
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Number of high events increases
Number of low events decreases
Comfort Zone
P.G. Jones CIAT Land Use Project March 2004
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Random series gently rising
What are the impacts of climate change on livestock
systems?
Increases in temperature
Increases in boreal winter and summer rainfall in places but more variable
More snow melt
Higher frequency of extreme events (rainfall and wind – cyclones)
Disruption of monsoon patterns
Climate change impacts in South Asia (IPCC 2007)
Asia | Length of growing period | Current conditions
Asia | Changes in the length of growing period | 2000 – 2050 (Thornton et al 2008)
Percent change in annual runoff by 2041-60 relative to 1900-70, scenario A1B, usingan ensemble of 12 climate models (Milly et al., 2005, as in Fig 3.4 in AR4-WGII)
More runoff
Increases in precipitation may not translate into higher crop yields due to increased
rainfall variability...and only if input supply is appropriate
National Production
Mixed rainfed
temperate
Mixed rainfed humid
Mixed rainfed
arid2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
Burundi 9.1 9.1 14.4 18.1 -1.8 -8.8 - -
Kenya 15.0 17.8 33.3 46.5 -4.6 -9.8 -1.1 -8.4
Rwanda 10.8 14.9 13.4 18.8 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.7
Tanzania -3.1 -8.1 7.5 8.7 -1.6 -6.4 -5.1 -11.1
Uganda -2.2 -8.6 4.9 3.1 -4.6 -12.9 -1.1 -6.3
A game of winners and losers…
Simulated percentage maize production changes to 2030 and 2050, by country and system
Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenario
Thornton et al. (2010)
WinnersLosers
Mostly mediated via changes in land use and ecosystems
Not completely understood
Significant implications for:Land useFood securityProduction of feedsDistribution of diseases and/or their vectors (i.e. tryps)Water availabilityBiodiversityGreen house gas emissions (i.e methane)
Increased frequency of climatic extreme events (drought/floods)erosion, soil degradation
Climate change impacts on livestock systems
Other key issues in scarce resource situations
Power structures
Governance
Equity / Gender issues
Vulnerability
Climate change impacts on livestock systems
Adaptation to climate change in livestock systems
Adaptation options will depend largely on the how we shape the world
• Several options exist though largely dependent on our vision of world development and how it plays out in different regions
• Lots of scenarios and uncertainty!
• Different paradigms of agricultural development (industrial vs pro-poor smallholders, large vs family farms)
• Globalisation and trade patterns• Consumption patterns• Carbon constraints• Roles and incentives for technology adoption• Growth in other sectors• Power relationships
Main types of options
• Sustainable intensification
• Extensification
• Income diversification
• Exit from agriculture
• All require a mixture of management, technology / supporting policies and investments
• No single path best, mixtures required in different parts of the world
Sustainable intensificationSome features
• Appropriate for some mid to high potential areas• Technology / management essential
– Improved feeding systems– Better breeds– Inputs (fertiliser / supplementation)
• Market incentives / creation– Service and input provision– Regulations and standards
• Investment in infrastructure (roads, post-harvest facilities, cooling plants, others)
Herrero et al 2010
Pros and cons
• Potentially very easy and cheap to increase productivity, especially in smallholder systems with large yield gaps but market incentives are needed
• Some adaptation practices can also lead to mitigation and vice-versa– i.e. Improved feeding : higher milk yields / lower GHG per
unit of product
• How do we define it and when does it become unsustainable? – No guidelines or indicators widely applicable for a range of
circumstances / systems– Though lots of progress in Europe
Herrero et al 2010
Diversification of livelihood strategies • Common in many systems (Thapa et al.)
• Diversification of income with farm or non-farm enterprises
• Income and cash flow stability
• Risk reduction
• Reduced variability of food supply / income (mostly in arid areas)
Some examples of adaptation options
• Breed or species changes (crops and livestock)
• Rangeland management
• Development of water sources
• Supplementation strategies
• Disease control and surveillance
• Policies, support tools and regulations (including insurance, early warning, etc)
• Payments for ecosystems services (water, biodiversity, etc)
• Alternative activities: fish farming, more cropping, horticulture where possible, other livestock (chickens)
• Off farm-income
In intensive systems, feed shortages for ruminants might increase demand for cereals further. If these
end up being fed on grains…this might lead to reduce food consumption of poor people further
grains
livestockproducts
humanconsumptionlivestock
energy
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
beefporklamb
poultryeggsmilkrice
wheatmaize
oil grainssoybeans
potatossweet potatos
cassavasugar cane
milletsorghumchickpea
pigeon peagroundnut
% change from 2000
reference 2030biofuels 2030
Monogastrics mostly+ ruminants
Further increases?
‘Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk
and meat increases
India quotes from M Blummel
‘Stovers transported morethan 400 km to be sold’
‘Price has doubled in 5 years, now 1/3 (2/3) of grain value of sorghum’
‘Farmers paying for stoverquality’
Herrero et al. in prep
Conclusions
• Climate change is happening but we need to act even if the magnitude of the impacts is uncertain
• Impacts of climate change on livestock and agriculture in South Asia heterogeneous but potentially severe
• A game of winners and losers
• Need significant investment in adaptation (infra-structure, markets will be essential)
• Adaptation: No silver bullets, suites of alternatives
• ‘Good development is the best solution for dealing with climate change and variability’
• Large role for research (crops, livestock, systems, value chains, markets, innovation systems and others)
Thank you
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