Adapting livestock systems to climate change in South Asia

M. Herrero, P. K. Thornton and I. Wright

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the livestock sector28th-29th October 2010 | Kathmandu, Nepal

– Background

– Living with uncertainty

– Climate change impacts

– Adaptation options

– Conclusions

Outline

– Agriculture in South Asia is changing rapidly and there are large numbers of people to feed

– Need to try to understand how production systems will change in the future: the target is moving!

– for designing a more coherent and dynamic research and policy agenda that benefits the poor

– for targeting investments more adequately

– For reducing vulnerability and poverty

Background

Lots of drivers of future change Population / Urbanization

Growth in demand and its nature

Increased competition for natural resources

Trade / exchange of knowledge and products

Climate change – warmer and more variable

Human population

UNEP 2007

Revised demand for livestock products to 2050

Rosegrant et al 2009

Annual per capita consumption

Total consumption

year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt)

Developing 20022050

2844

4478

137326

222585

Developed 20022050

7894

202216

102126

265295

Cereal yields

Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa

World Bank 2007

Area under cultivation and rates of growth in cereal yields

World Bank 2007

Mixed intensive systems in the developing World are under significant pressures (Herrero et al. 2010)

• 2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in Asia• 150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by 2030• Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry, increasing by 30-40%

to 2030• Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice• Others increasing: maize (East Asia)• All in the same land!

• Severe water constraints in some places• Soil fertility problems in others

...and then there’s climate change...

Why is climate change so important to agriculture-based countries?

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rainfall variation around the meanGDP growth

de Jong (2005), World Bank (2005)

Ethiopia: Rainfall Variability and Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Climate change: we need to act even when

there are still uncertainties...but the science

is improving!

2007 IPCC AR4: effects of warming evident; cost of reducing emissions far less than damage they will cause

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

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t C

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Climate change recognised long ago…

Climate change science timeline

1859Tyndall: some gases absorb IR; could drive climate change

1897 Chamberlin: model of global C exchange

1956 Phillips: 1st somewhat realistic global climate model

1938 Callendar: CO2 greenhouse global warming is underway

1896 Arrhenius: 1st calculation of anthropogenic global warming

1995 IPCC 2nd report: “signature of human activities”

1988 IPCC established; 1st report 1990

1976 Deforestation recognized as important driver of climate change

1958 Keeling: Atm. CO2 measurements begin at Mauna Loa

1930s Global warming trend since late 19th century reported

Courtesy of R. Conant

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But the policy frameworks have been slowly implemented

Climate policy timeline2008-2012: 1st Kyoto compliance period

2005: Kyoto into effect

2001: Marrakech accords

1997: Kyoto Protocol

1992: US Energy policy act; incl. Section 1605(b)

1992: Rio Treaty – establishes UNFCCC

A modest proposal?

Near-term implementation of a global policy that affects all parts of everyone’s lives.

Courtesy of R. Conant

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What are the impacts of climate change on livestock

systems?

Increases in temperature

Increases in boreal winter and summer rainfall in places but more variable

More snow melt

Higher frequency of extreme events (rainfall and wind – cyclones)

Disruption of monsoon patterns

Climate change impacts in South Asia (IPCC 2007)

Asia | Length of growing period | Current conditions

Asia | Changes in the length of growing period | 2000 – 2050 (Thornton et al 2008)

Percent change in annual runoff by 2041-60 relative to 1900-70, scenario A1B, usingan ensemble of 12 climate models (Milly et al., 2005, as in Fig 3.4 in AR4-WGII)

More runoff

Increases in precipitation may not translate into higher crop yields due to increased

rainfall variability...and only if input supply is appropriate

National Production

Mixed rainfed

temperate

Mixed rainfed humid

Mixed rainfed

arid2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050

Burundi 9.1 9.1 14.4 18.1 -1.8 -8.8 - -

Kenya 15.0 17.8 33.3 46.5 -4.6 -9.8 -1.1 -8.4

Rwanda 10.8 14.9 13.4 18.8 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.7

Tanzania -3.1 -8.1 7.5 8.7 -1.6 -6.4 -5.1 -11.1

Uganda -2.2 -8.6 4.9 3.1 -4.6 -12.9 -1.1 -6.3

A game of winners and losers…

Simulated percentage maize production changes to 2030 and 2050, by country and system

Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenario

Thornton et al. (2010)

WinnersLosers

Mostly mediated via changes in land use and ecosystems

Not completely understood

Significant implications for:Land useFood securityProduction of feedsDistribution of diseases and/or their vectors (i.e. tryps)Water availabilityBiodiversityGreen house gas emissions (i.e methane)

Increased frequency of climatic extreme events (drought/floods)erosion, soil degradation

Climate change impacts on livestock systems

Other key issues in scarce resource situations

Power structures

Governance

Equity / Gender issues

Vulnerability

Climate change impacts on livestock systems

Adaptation to climate change in livestock systems

Adaptation options will depend largely on the how we shape the world

• Several options exist though largely dependent on our vision of world development and how it plays out in different regions

• Lots of scenarios and uncertainty!

• Different paradigms of agricultural development (industrial vs pro-poor smallholders, large vs family farms)

• Globalisation and trade patterns• Consumption patterns• Carbon constraints• Roles and incentives for technology adoption• Growth in other sectors• Power relationships

Main types of options

• Sustainable intensification

• Extensification

• Income diversification

• Exit from agriculture

• All require a mixture of management, technology / supporting policies and investments

• No single path best, mixtures required in different parts of the world

Sustainable intensificationSome features

• Appropriate for some mid to high potential areas• Technology / management essential

– Improved feeding systems– Better breeds– Inputs (fertiliser / supplementation)

• Market incentives / creation– Service and input provision– Regulations and standards

• Investment in infrastructure (roads, post-harvest facilities, cooling plants, others)

Herrero et al 2010

Pros and cons

• Potentially very easy and cheap to increase productivity, especially in smallholder systems with large yield gaps but market incentives are needed

• Some adaptation practices can also lead to mitigation and vice-versa– i.e. Improved feeding : higher milk yields / lower GHG per

unit of product

• How do we define it and when does it become unsustainable? – No guidelines or indicators widely applicable for a range of

circumstances / systems– Though lots of progress in Europe

Herrero et al 2010

Diversification of livelihood strategies • Common in many systems (Thapa et al.)

• Diversification of income with farm or non-farm enterprises

• Income and cash flow stability

• Risk reduction

• Reduced variability of food supply / income (mostly in arid areas)

Some examples of adaptation options

• Breed or species changes (crops and livestock)

• Rangeland management

• Development of water sources

• Supplementation strategies

• Disease control and surveillance

• Policies, support tools and regulations (including insurance, early warning, etc)

• Payments for ecosystems services (water, biodiversity, etc)

• Alternative activities: fish farming, more cropping, horticulture where possible, other livestock (chickens)

• Off farm-income

In intensive systems, feed shortages for ruminants might increase demand for cereals further. If these

end up being fed on grains…this might lead to reduce food consumption of poor people further

grains

livestockproducts

humanconsumptionlivestock

energy

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beefporklamb

poultryeggsmilkrice

wheatmaize

oil grainssoybeans

potatossweet potatos

cassavasugar cane

milletsorghumchickpea

pigeon peagroundnut

% change from 2000

reference 2030biofuels 2030

Monogastrics mostly+ ruminants

Further increases?

‘Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk

and meat increases

India quotes from M Blummel

‘Stovers transported morethan 400 km to be sold’

‘Price has doubled in 5 years, now 1/3 (2/3) of grain value of sorghum’

‘Farmers paying for stoverquality’

Herrero et al. in prep

Conclusions

• Climate change is happening but we need to act even if the magnitude of the impacts is uncertain

• Impacts of climate change on livestock and agriculture in South Asia heterogeneous but potentially severe

• A game of winners and losers

• Need significant investment in adaptation (infra-structure, markets will be essential)

• Adaptation: No silver bullets, suites of alternatives

• ‘Good development is the best solution for dealing with climate change and variability’

• Large role for research (crops, livestock, systems, value chains, markets, innovation systems and others)

Thank you