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2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Achieving mitigation through adaptation:
climate smart livestock solutions in Southern Africa
Mottet, A., Teillard, F., Falcucci, A. & Gerber, P.
An FAO multi disciplinary project “Building the basis for scaling up Climate Smart Agriculture in Southern Africa”
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
In Southern Africa, demand for animal products will double between 2006 and 2050
•Need to increase production and/or imports
•Role of livestock in food security and nutrition, income and livelihood for millions of smallholders is growing
Annual meat consumption growth rateSource: FAOSTAT & FAO-OECD Agricultural Outlook
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Source: ILRI
Density of poor livestock keepers• 45% of Zambian
population
malnourished
• 5.1 millions of poor
livestock keepers in
Zambia
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Extreme droughtevents in the future
Source: IPCC, Special Report on Extreme Events, 2011
Consecutive dry days Low soil moisture
• Most exposed region: recurring
draughts affecting agricultural
yields and forage availability and
change in rainfall patterns
• Strong focus on adaptation, but
generally exclude livestock except
emergency types of response
(early warning systems and
disease control)
• Priority not given to livestock in
Zambia and Malawi despite high
potential
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Questions
• What is the role of livestock in building resilience in Southern Africa? The example of Zambia
• Can interventions aiming to improve production and reduce variability also decrease GHG emissions?
• How can we support policy makers in addressing adaptation and mitigation issues through livestock?
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Approach - (1) calculating feed baskets
Dry matterproductivity
BiomassAccessiblebiomass
Livestock requirements
Accessibleenergy
Satellite data
(DevCoCast)
Crop yields (GAEZ)
Land cover share
Usability/accessibility
(literature)
Energy content
(literature)
Grass
Residues
By-products
Feed basket Livestock distribution
Energy requirements (GLEAM)
Average feed basket (experts)Demand
Supply
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Method– scenarios 2012-2030
ProductionCow milk, beef and goat meat
AdaptationTransmission of inter-annual variability from biomass to animal products
MitigationGHG emissions and emission intensity
Vegetation (supply)
2012-2030 scenarios
• Baseline
• Drought
Livestock (demand)
Improvement options
• Animal husbandry & health
• Feeding practices (improved grasslands
and replacement of part of the CR)
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Approach – seasonality
Vegetation (supply)
• Crops: all grown in humid
season (except wheat)
• Grass: lower growth and
energy content in dry
season
Livestock (demand)
• By products: used in both
season
• Crop residues: only used in
the dry season
• Grass: lower requirements
in dry season (weight and
yield losses)
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Approach – (2) impact on incomes
• Large-scale household panel data from the Zambian Rural Agriculture Livelihoods Survey (CSO, 2012). 2011/2012 cropping season, 8279 farms.
• No time series available : variability among districts
• Climatic variables to determine if 2011/2012 had been a dry year for the farms, compared with the previous 10 years: historical rainfall data from the Africa Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC2) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA-CPC).
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Results - Production
• Sector growth: +24-30% production
compared to 2000-2011
• Improved practices: +57-80% in the
baseline scenario,
+49-71% in the drought scenario
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Liv
es
toc
k p
rod
uc
tio
n p
rox
y
2000-2011 Baseline Drought
scenario scenario
Practices
CurrentImproved
Practices
CurrentImproved
Meta
bo
lisab
le e
nerg
y i
n r
ati
on
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Results - Adaptation0
.00
0.0
50
.10
0.1
50
.20
Inte
ran
nu
al v
ari
ab
ilit
y (
CV
)
2000-2011 Baseline Drought
scenario scenario0
.00
0.0
50
.10
0.1
50
.20
Inte
ran
nu
al v
ari
ab
ilty
(C
V)
2000-2011 Baseline Drought
scenario scenario
• Lower variability of livestock production compared to biomass availability,
especially in the drought scenario
• More reduction when including market stratification as improvement
Biomass production variability Livestock production variability
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Results – Mitigation
• Emission intensities reduced through improvements options
• Absolute direct emissions increase due to sector’s growth and interventions reducing mortality
• When accounting for C sequestration in pastures through legume sowing and stocking rates
adjustments (Henderson et al, 2015), absolute emissions reduced by 25 to 31%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
in
ten
sit
y
2000-2011 2012-2030
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
To
tal G
HG
em
iss
ion
s
2000-2011 2012-2030
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Feed balance for residues and grass (dry season)
• Higher deficit
for crop residues
than for grass
• Higher distance
to cover to fill
deficit in crop
residues
Average distance to cover to fill deficit 31 km 8 km
Crop residues
Deficit/excess
Grass
Deficit/excess
Mean
Max.
Excess
Deficit
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Livestock effect on income and its variability0.0
e+
00
5.0
e+
06
1.0
e+
07
1.5
e+
07
Gro
ss
in
co
me
Without livestock With livestock
Normal
Dryer than usual
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Va
ria
tio
n in
gro
ss
in
co
me
(C
V)
Without livestock With livestock
Normal
Dryer than usual
• Higher income in farms with livestock, including in dry years
• Lower income variation across farms, in farms with livestock
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Methods and data caveats • Scare livestock technical performance data• Inexistent data on natural vegetation accessibility for animal feed• Partial knowledge on animal mobility• Scarce information on characterization of feed resources and their
quality• Inexact livestock numbers official statistics
Next steps:
• Work with newest income survey 2014-2015
• Integrate climate scenarios and their effects on natural biomass
productivity
• Upscale Zambian and Malawi case studies at regional level
2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)
GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016
Policy implications and conclusions•Improving feed digestibility: need extension and to address possible competition and improved availability of legume seeds (currently only velvet beans and lablab)
•Improving animal husbandry and animal health: need extension
•Improve grassland management: access to land and tenure systems. Limited investments needed but capacity development on grassland restoration, rotational grazing and grazing planning required.
•Livestock buffers variability in climate and available biomass, which results in more stable food production and income.
•Most climate research in Sub-Saharan Africa focuses on adaptation needs, but interventions in the livestock sector can also yield significant mitigation while contributing to increase productivity.
We cannot separate adaptation and mitigation
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