accidents and potential releases of mineral oil the bonn agreement area co-financed by the eu –...

Accidents and potential releases of mineral oil

the Bonn Agreement Area

Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument

BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden

Overview

• Background • Introduction to the different accident types• Frequency of the accident types • Spills from the different accident types• Future scenario• Regional differences• Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest• Summary and Conclusions

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

BackgroundTask H Oil spills

Overall objective:• Apply the accident model to describe the:

– Accident type– Location– Spill size– Spill substance

Basis:• Traffic model• Cargo model• Risk Reducing measures• Accident statistics

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

BackgroundAccidents covered

- Ship-ship collision modelNode collisionsRoute collisions

- Groundings- STS/bunkering operations/loading buoy/FPSO- Offshore platforms

Operational spillsSpills from collisions

- Wind parks

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident typesShip-Ship collisions

Route collisions

The collision frequencies depend on:• the length of the route segment• the traffic intensity in each direction• the length, breadth and speed of the ships• the deviation of the ships from the route axis• the causation probability Pc

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

V2, L2, B2

m, s

m, s

V1, L1, B1

Route length, L

m, sV2, L2, B2

m, s

V1, L1, B1

Route length, L

Head-on

Overtaking

Accident typesShip-Ship collisions

Node collisions

The collision frequencies depend on:• the traffic intensity in each direction• the length, breadth and speed of the ships• the crossing angle• the causation probability Pc

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident frequency, 2011All types of accidents

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident frequencyAll types of accidentsChannel

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident frequencyDover Strait

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident frequencyAll types of accidentsGerman Bight

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011 (t/year)All types of accidentsAll sizes of spills, the average spill is dominated by extremely large spills(long term average)

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsChannel

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsDover Strait

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsGerman Bight

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsNorth Sea

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011Small spills <300t

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011Medium spills 300t-5000t

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidentall spills, 2011Large spills > 5000t

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident frequency - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020

Changes:WindparksTSSTraffic- routes- vessel size- voyages

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020

Changes:WindparksTSSTraffic- routes- vessel size- voyages

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidentall spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020

Small spills <300t

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020

Medium spills 300t-5000t

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020

Large spills >5000t

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

• TSS reduces risks significantly

2020

2020

2020

Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

• VTS has significant effect on ships with no pilots

2020

2020

2020

Regional resultsProject area and sub regions:

1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Regional results, 2011Project area and sub regions:

1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Regional results, 2020Project area and sub regions:

1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Regional resultsDivided into sub regions:

1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Regional results, 2011Divided into sub regions:

1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Regional results, 2020Divided into sub regions:

1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Methodology

Summary and conclusion 1• Areas with high intensity traffic in narrow lanes gives

large contributions when no TSS is applied• Largest contributions to reduction of route collisions

from TSS• Largest contributor to node collisions at Dover Straight• Not insignificant contributions from the operational

spills from platforms• Substantial regional differences in accidents and spills

Methodology

Summary and conclusion 2• Substantial risk for spills from platforms (Ship-platform

collisions, platform accidents, blow-out)• Little risk for spills from wind farms (ship-Wind turbine

collision)• Development of risk on sub-regional level:• SB4: More risk for collision, wind farms• SB5: More risk for collision• Impact of spills have not been evaluated (Be-Aware II)

Questions?

Thank you

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