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Americas Energy Challenges Steven E. Koonin Under Secretary for Science US Department of Energy June 2011 http://www.energy.gov/QTR

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Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2009: ~94.6 Quads 2 https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/

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Energy Essentials Fewer, long-lived centralized facilities with distribution networks Change has required decades Power and fuels are commodities with thin margins Markets with government regulation and distortion Technology alone does not a transformation make Transport and Stationary are disjoint Transport is powered by oil Power Requires boiling large amounts of water Sized for extremes (storage is difficult) Numerous sources with differing CapEx and OpEx Emissions Base/Peak/Intermittency Supply Many distributed players, shorter-lived assets User benefit (economics, convenience, personal preference) Determined by price, standards, behavior Little attention to system optimization for stationary use Demand A big and expensive system In private hands Governed by economics, modulated by government policies As a whole, energy is 3

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4 Source: EIA US energy supply since 1850 Energy supply has changed on decadal scales

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U.S. Energy Challenges Energy SecurityEnvironmentCompetitiveness Share of Reserves Held by NOC/IOC Daily Spot Price OK WTI Global Lithium-ion Battery Manufacturing (2009) 5 Federal Deficit

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Administration Goals Transport Reduce oil imports by 1/3 by 2025 (~3.7 M bbl/day) Put 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2015 Stationary By 2035, generate 80% of electricity from a diverse set of clean energy sources Make non-residential buildings 20% more energy efficient by 2020 Environmental Cut greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, and 83% by 2050 6

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Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 7

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8 Trends in Car and Light-Duty Truck Average Attributes showing changes in customer preferences, data from (EPA2010)

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9 Cumulative retail price equivalent and fuel consumption reduction relative to 2007 for spark ignition powertrain without hybridization (NRC2010)

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Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 10

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Progressively Electrify the Fleet Challenges with Batteries and Motors Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Plug-in Electric Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) 11

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Battery Evolution: R&D to Commercialization 12 The energy storage effort is engaged in a wide range of topics, from fundamental materials work through battery development and testing High energy cathodes Alloy, Lithium anodes High voltage electrolytes Lithium air couples High rate electrodes High energy couples Fabrication of high E cells Ultracapacitor carbons Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) systems 10 and 40 mile Plug-in HEV systems Advanced lead acid Ultracapacitors Lab and University Focus Industry Focus Advanced Materials Research Commercialization High Energy & High Power Cell R&D Full System Development And Testing

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Hybrid Electric Systems Petroleum Displacement via Fuel Substitution and Improved Efficiency 13 Administration Goal:1 Million EVs by 2015 Targets and Status 2014 PHEV: Battery that has 40-mile all-electric range and costs $3,400 2015 Power Electronics: Cost for electric traction system no greater than $12/kW peak by 2015 Status: $8,000-$11,000 for PHEV 40-mile range battery Status: Current cost of electric traction system is $40/kW Types of Vehicles and Benefits HEV PHEV EV Nissan Leaf Toyota Prius Chevy Volt All Electric 50 MPG >100 MPGe PHEV Battery Cost per kWh Power Electronics Cost per kW System Cost $1,000 - $1,200 $700 - $950 Goal = $300 Goal = $500 2010 2012 2014 2008 2015 $19 $22 Goal = $17 Goal = $12

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Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 14

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R E F I N I N G Deploy Advanced/Alternative Fuels 15 Platforms / Pathways Feedstock Production & Logistics Energy crops Agricultural byproducts Waste Streams Algae Coal Natural Gas Feedstock Production & Logistics Energy crops Agricultural byproducts Waste Streams Algae Coal Natural Gas Ethanol Methanol Butanol Olefins Aromatics Gasoline Diesel Jet Dimethyl Ether Heat and Power Co or By Products Power Pyrolysis Oil Platform Syngas Platform Liquid Bio-oil Enzymatic Hydrolysis Sugars Fermentation Cellulosic Sugar Platform Algal and other Bio-Oils Transesterification Catalytic Upgrading Products Feedstocks Fast Pyrolysis Gasification Lipid (Oil) Platform Raw syngas Filtration & Clean-up Upgrading Other enzymatic/biochemical methods

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Biomass can provide significant carbon 16 FuelFossilAgriculture Biomass 15% of Transportation Fuels 1000 Annual US Carbon (Mt C)

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Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 17

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Categories of US Energy Consumption 18 Buildings use about 40% of total US energy

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U.S. Refrigerator Properties 19

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Lighting 20 Source: http://gaia.lbl.gov/btech/papers/3831.pdf Image: False color image of workstation 35 with overhead lights at 100% and undercabinet light off. Calibration bar is in candelas per meter squared.

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Manufacturing/ Commercialization Basic Science Applied R&D Solid-State Lighting Goal : reduce 22% of nations total electrical energy usage by half Wide Bandgap Semiconductors Heteroepitaxial systems Wide Bandgap Semiconductors Heteroepitaxial systems Synthesis : Chemical Vapor Deposition Modeling GaGa MgMg N H Theory and modeling of defect energies Fundamental understanding helps eliminate Defects Key Enabler for Manufacturing Lumileds (originally with HP) General Electric Cabot Superior Micropowders Dow Corning Veeco Emcore Cree Bridgelux (under discussion) Essential Tool Development Sandia Labs & Lumiled Collaboration: Cantilever Epitaxy reduces dislocation densities 100X (R&D 100 Award) Emcore Discovery 125 system Sandia Labs & RPI demonstrates an 18% increase in light output efficiency by modifying heteroepitaxial interface

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Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 22

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The U.S. Grid The numbers > 200,000 miles of transmission lines distribute approx. 1 TW of power Over 3,500 utility organizations Desiderata Reliability Efficiency Security Flexibility to integrate intermittent renewables Two-way flow of information and power Growth to handle growing demand Challenges Active management is required to balance generation, transmission, and demand at all times Excursion from ideal operation can be catastrophic 23

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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry- reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs 24

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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry- reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs 25

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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry- reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs 26

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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry- reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs 27

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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry- reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs 28

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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry- reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs 29

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Manufacturing/ Commercialization Basic ScienceApplied R&D Superconducting Wire: From Science to the Grid Invented single crystal-like flexible templates by the kilometer: Ion Beam Assisted Deposition (IBAD) Rolling Assisted Bi-axially Textured Substrate (RABiTS) Developed epitaxial buffers: Maximize current flow (understand vortex dynamics) Develop segregation & growth mechanisms (new materials) Modify properties with nanostructures Understand quantum effects in film growth Columbus, OH Albany, NY Long Island, NY Two companies are now manufacturing kilometers of superconducting cables based on the IBAD and RABiTS processes These are deployed in three demonstration projects in the grid.

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Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 31

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Deploy Clean Electricity Other technologies Natural gas Hydro Solar thermal (parabolic troughs) Geothermal 32 Wind Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Concentrating Solar Power Carbon Capture and Storage Nuclear Energy

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US Gas Supply by Source 33 Unconventional gas sources will grow Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release

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US Renewable Generation (GWh) 34 Renewables are small, but growing rapidly, especially wind Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release

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Renewable Electricity Costs (2009) 35 Coal/gas-fired ~ 3-6 cents Nuclear ~ 7 cents Source: 2009 Renewable Energy Data Book (EERE)

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Manufacturing/ Commercialization Basic ScienceApplied R&D Low Cost Solar Cells: From Fundamental Synthesis Research to Commercialization Basic research focused on materials-centric aspects of a micro- transfer printing process for single crystalline silicon and other semiconductors, dielectrics and metals GaAs wafer AlAs release layers GaAs epi-stacks for solar microcells etch in HF release; transfer print regrow EERE Solar America Initiative: E EERE Solar America Initiative: Established new materials strategies & manufacturing methods for low-cost, high performance photovoltaic modules Micro-Contact Printed Solar Cells Industrial collaborations John Rogers, Ralph Nuzzo (co-founders)

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DOE SunShot Program 2004 Systems Prices 2010 Systems Prices Power Electronics Cost Reductions BOS Improvements BOS Soft Costs Reductions Module Efficiency Improvements Manufacturing Cost Reductions $1/W Target $1/W Installed Systems Price ($/W) $3.80/W Power Electronics Balance of Systems (BOS) PV Module 37

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Areas of DOE Research Focus 38

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Training the next generation of innovators 39 http://science.energy.gov/~/media/np/pdf/Accelerating_Innovation_9_01142011.pdf Survey of 500+ DOE-supported nuclear science PhDs (1999-2004) 1/3 government service or at national research labs 1/3 science and technology industries 1/3 educate and train the next generation of skilled workers

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We must integrate diverse players with diverse roles Universities Knowledge, people, education, credible voices National labs Large facilities and programs, multidisciplinary RD&D For-profit sector High-risk innovation, take technology to scale Optimize under economics and regulation Government Consistent policies, precompetitive R&D 40

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QUESTIONS?/COMMENTS? http://science.energy.gov/s-4 http://www.energy.gov/QTR 41

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DOE-QTR Scope The DOE-QTR will provide a context and robust framework for the Departments energy programs, as well as principles by which to establish multiyear programs plans and budgets. It will also offer high-level views of the technical status and potential of various energy technologies. The primary focus of the DOE-QTR process and document will be on the following: Framing the energy challenges A discussion of the roles of government, industry, national laboratories, and universities in energy system transformation Summary roadmaps for advancing key energy technologies, systems, and sectors Principles by which the Department can judge the priority of various technology efforts A discussion of support for demonstration projects The connections of energy technology innovation to energy policy 43 http://www.energy.gov/QTR

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DOE-QTR Timeline Nov 2010 PCAST made recommendations for DOE to do QER 3/14 4/15 Public comment period for DOE-QTR Framing Document 4/20 First batch of public comments released on project website Through mid-June Hold workshops and discussions of each of the Six Strategies End July/Aug Submit DOE-QTR to White House for approval Before Dec 2011 Release DOE-QTR http://www.energy.gov/QTR

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DOE-QTR Logic Flow 45 Energy context Supply/demand Energy essentials Energy challenges Oil security US Competitiveness Environmental Impact Players and Roles Private/Govt Within govt Econ/Policy/Tech Acad/Lab/Private Technology Assessments History Status Potential Six strategies DOE portfolio principles DOE priorities and portfolio Balanced within and across strategies Program plans and budgets Technology Roadmaps Milestones Cost Schedule Performers http://www.energy.gov/QTR