amadi-echendu presentation.ppt

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Technology Foresight: Opportunities and Challenges for National Researchers

Joe E Amadi‐Echendu

Professor, Engineering & Technology Management, University of Pretoria

Director, Institute of Eng. Technology & Innovation Management, UNIPORT

Editor‐in‐Chief, Eng. Asset Management Review Series, Springer, UK

joe.amadi‐[email protected] www.up.ac.za/gstm

NOTAP‐ISESCO NATIONAL WORKSHOP ON THE INTEGRATION OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT INTO NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTAL PROGRAMMES © Prof J E Amadi‐Echendu GSTM Univ of Pretoria, METI Univ of Port Harcourt

www.meti.uniport.edu.ng

+27 82 219 2268

+234 703 660 5034


Diaspora, Geopolitical & Economic boundaries


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METI is the acronym for the Institute of Engineering, Technology and Innovation Management. The Institute domiciled at the University ofPort Harcourt, leverages systems of innovation towards the development of capability and capacity for the integrated management ofscience, engineering, technology, and innovation (METI).

University of Port HarcourtInstitute of Engineering, Technology and Innovation Management (METI)

The Institute comprises (i) Technobees Incubator, (ii) TechnoCPD, and(iii) its academic Centre for Engineering and TechnologyManagement (CETM) is based on a cooperation agreement betweenthe University of Port Harcourt and the University of Pretoria, SouthAfrica. METI’s CETM commenced operations in September 2010 with rc

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es

EngineeringManagementDomain

TechnologyManagement

Engineering Management Programme

Project Management Programme

Innovation Management ProgrammeAfrica. METI s CETM commenced operations in September 2010 with22 Masters’ degree students and 12 PhD candidates currentlyenrolled in three domains of six academic programmes.

CE

TM

in M

ET

I

Mast

ers

& R

esea

r

University Certificates

ManagementDomain

Project Management Programme

ICT Management Domain

Maintenance Management Programme

Technology Entrepreneurship Programme

ICT Networks Programme

Business Information Systems Programme

ICT Networks Programme

Engineering Management Domain Technology Management Domain ICT Management Domain

12345 Fi i l M t (IET 640)

METI, Institute for Engineering, Technology and Innovation Management, University of Port HarcourtCENTRE for ENGINEERING and TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENTMEng/MSc Curricula : Programmes, Domains and Modules

Sustainable Development & Team Building (IET 600)Project Management (IET 610)

Physical Asset Management (IET 620)Risk Management (IET 630)

Contact : Professor Joe Amadi-Echendu, Director, METI: [email protected](in RSA +27822192268), (in Nigeria +2347036605034)

The collaboration between METI’s CETM and University of Pretoria’sGraduate School of Technology Management (GSTM) focuses onknowledge sharing through exchange of teaching and researchcapabilities. Pretoria’s GSTM commenced with less than 10 studentsbut now boasts over 400 enrolments each academic year in a periodspanning only 20+ years. In anticipation of a higher rate of growth,METI solicits funding, in‐kind contributions and support fromsponsors, donors, and investors to assist with plans to establishphysical infrastructure locally to facilitate its operations.

Business Information Systems Programm567

8 Systems Engineering (E) (MOE 660) Knowledge Management (E) (MOT 660) Business Information Systems(E) (ICT 660)9 Ops & Mtce Management (E) (MOE 670) Technology Commercialisation(E) (MOT 670) ICT Networks (E) (ICT 670)

10 Logistics Engineering (E) (MOE 680) Innovation & Technology Policy (E) (MOT 680) Logistics Engineering (E) (MOE 680)

BEng (Hons) BEng (Hons) BSc (Hons) BEng/BSC (Hons); Btech(D,M)Minimum Entry qualifications

Financial Management (IET 640)Research Methods (IET 650)

RESEARCH PROJECT (IET 690)General Research Theme: Management of Engineering, Technology and Innovation


METI practicalises NEEDS (National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy) requirements for

(i) “Strengthening the skill base” (ref: NEEDS brief pg 31)

(ii) “P ti i t t i ” ( f NEEDS b i f 35)


(ii) “Promoting private enterprise” (ref: NEEDS brief pg 35)

METI practicalises 7-POINT AGENDA requirements for

(i) “Human Capital Development” (4th Agenda)

(ii) “Wealth Creation” (7th Agenda)

(iii) “Critical Infrastructure” (1st Agenda)


METI addresses Vision 20 : 2020 for Nigeria in the global world

(i) “Millennium Development Goals”

(ii) “Innovation and Knowledge-based Economy”

(iii) “Geographical and Natural Advantage”

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METI implements NDDC Master Plan Policies E11, E12, and E9

(i) E11 – The Education System and Economic Development

(ii) E12 – Development of a Knowledge Based Economy


(ii) E12 Development of a Knowledge Based Economy

(iii) E9 – Business Parks and Town Centre Development

METI implements ETF, PTDF and other National strategic intents viz:

(i) “develop capacity in human resources and technology”

(ii) “acquire indigenous manpower and technological know-how for industry”

(iii) “adapt technological innovations for economic growth and social well-being”

METI leverages the components of National Systems of Innovation, linking initiatives


METI leverages the components of National Systems of Innovation, linking initiatives

from, for example,

(i) National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion

(ii) National Information Technology Development Agency

(iii) National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure, NASENI

(iv) National Centre for Technology Management

(v) SME Development Agency of Nigeria.


Engineering Management ProgrammeProject Management Domain

Project management systems

Project risk management

Project knowledge management

Asset Management Domain

Asset management systems

Asset valuation and due dil igence

Funding, financing and public‐private partnerships

Condition monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics

Operations modelling, planning, scheduling, control

Maintenance management

Benchmarking

Lif l tLife‐cycle assessments

Human dimensions

Sustainability

Systems analysis, design and synthesis

Risk identification, analysis, mitigation, simulation, and management

Sustainabil ity measurement and performance

Quality management systems

Technology Management Programme

Technology Commercialisation Domain

Technology transfer

Technology entrepreneurship

Technology acquisition and procurement

New products development

Innovation and Technology Policy Domain

Technology planning and forecasting

Technology auditing


Innovation and technology strategy

Systems of innovation

R&D management

Knowledge Management Domain

Knowledge management systems

Decision models

ICT Management Programme

Business Information Domain

Computerised data and records management

Decision heirarchies and systems

ICT Infrastructure

Network analysis, design and synthesis

Technology trajectories

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Knowhow from ongoing projects in 2011

AcademiaGSTM (Eskom & Sasol) METISupervision

Over 24 M-level projects for 201110 15 PhD10 – 15 PhD

EAMR SeriesConsulting to Government

DPW, RSA (implementing new legislation)WRC, RSA DST, RSA (sustainable livelihoods)

Consulting to IndustryRandwaterAngloplatinum


AngloplatinumStandards

IEC TC56

can immediately be applied towards

Technology Foresighting for Nigeria

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Basic Research

Applied Research

Knowledge Transfer

Commercialisation

The SETI “value-chain”

S i E i i T h l I ti


Science Engineering Technology Innovation


Basic Research

Applied Research

CommercialisationKnowledge Transfer

““TechCommTechComm”” »» Initiate, Initiate, Nuture Nuture and Sustainand Sustain

Research

•Specialists•Discovery•Discontinuity•Independence•Copyrights

•Specialists/Generalists•Discontinuity •Probing•Divergence •Technological Intelligence•MTA’s & Patents

•Generalists/Specialists•Convergence•Speciation•Technology Strategy•User Requirements•Market Concepts

•Generalists•Tactics •Emergence/First-to-Market•Dominant Species•MTA’s & Patents•IPR Agreements

Innovationand development


Knowledge creation, acquisition, diffusion and transformationIP identification, protection, and transfer

p•MTA’s & Patents•IPR Agreements (e.g., licensing)

g•Technology Advantage•Functional Specification•Marketing

Funding options……………………………………Financing solutions

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Discovery/Invention Development Commercialisation

IP development, protection, and exploitation

Entrepreneur to Business Organisation

“TechComm” “TechComm” » » Initiate, Nuture and SustainInitiate, Nuture and Sustain


•Specialists•Discovery•Discontinuity•Independence•Copyrights

•Specialists/Generalists •Probing•Divergence •Technology Features•MTA’s & Patents•Marketing Concepts

•Organisational Development•Convergence•Product Features•Market Characteristics•Routes to Market•IPR Agreements

•Business Organisation•Business Tactics and Operation •Market Emergence•IPR Exploitation•Marketing

Funding options………………………Financing solutions


Basic Research

Applied Research

KnowledgeTransfer

Commercialisation

Legislation to drive SETI value chain

OECD Guidelines : FRASCATI, OSLO, etcOECD Guidelines : FRASCATI, OSLO, etcR & D Performance Measurement


US Legislation : BAY / DOHLE Act US Legislation : BAY / DOHLE Act Triple Helix Models

Patent – Publish - Profit

Academia Industry

Government

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Application

Product/Service

Market

Market

Product/Service

P /S

Technology

Application

Applications

Market

Market

Market

Product/Service

Product/Service

Product/Service

Product/Service

NOTAP‐ISESCO NATIONAL WORKSHOP ON THE INTEGRATION OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT INTO NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTAL PROGRAMMES © Prof J E Amadi‐Echendu GSTM Univ of Pretoria, METI Univ of Port Harcourt©2011 J E Amadi‐Echendu Graduate School of Technology Management University of Pretoria

Applications

Market

Market

BI Concept Phase

BI Development Phase

BI Commercial Phase

Product/Service

Product/Service

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OVERSEAS TECHNOLOGY SOURCES

DevelopmentResearch Production

Sca

le

LOCAL INDUSTRY & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS

Local ResearchOrganisations

Act

ivit

y L

eve

l S

Ac

tivi

ty L

eve

l Sc

ale

Weak TechnologyTransfer Flow

A li dB i


S & T ACTIVITY LEVELS IN THE TECHNOLOGY COLONY

Applied Research

Basic Research

Production/Manufacture SalesDesign and Development

PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE


Technology

New

Ventures

Mature Business

Major Companies,

Investment Groups

(Pension Funds,

Venture

Capital

(IDC?)

Science

Councils &

Private sector

R & D

Universities

and

Science

e

( ,

Insurance

Companies, …)

Technikons


Act

ivit

y L

evel

Sca

le

LOCAL INDUSTRY & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS

Local Research

Organisations

Ac

tivi

ty L

eve

l S

ca

le

Weak Technology

Transfer Flow

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“ i th i l h i liti l

Proposition

“...economic growth, social cohesion, political

emancipation, national values and well being can

be achieved through science, engineering and


technological innovation that increase the

effectiveness of labour...”


Dilemmas :

For government –

to formulate viable development strategies based on well‐to formulate viable development strategies based on well‐

informed and appropriate understanding of evolving

Political, Ecological, Economic, Social, and Technology issues.

For the business sector –


it is crucial accurate prediction of the future of demand, cash

flows, and intellectual capital factors!

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Harper (2005) : foresight is “…a systematic, participatory, future

intelligence‐gathering and medium‐to‐long‐term vision‐building

process…”

Technology Foresight – aids creativity, underpins innovation,

encompasses prediction, focuses more on management of change, the


magic is in recognizing the potentials in present‐day ‘weak signals’ that

may point to the future…


Technology foresighting methods

•Exploratory: given the present, what will the future look like?

Delphi, trend, impact/cross impact analyses

•Normative: Imagine the desirable, realistic future, what do we do now?

How might the imagined future be achieved from the present state,

resources capabilities and constraints?


resources, capabilities and constraints?

Scenario planning, relevance trees, morphological analyses

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Technology foresighting methods

•Quantitative: numerical extrapolation of empirical data → data‐driven

Stochastic processes, time series analyses

•Qualitative: extrapolations of behavioural trends → value‐driven

Fuzzy logic, scenario analyses


y g , y


Technology foresighting methods are research opportunities!


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Market Roadmap

• Knowledge of current & future Market / Business Opportunities

• Company Strategies • Environmental Stringencies• Industry Trends• Regulatory Drivers

“Know Why”

Push

Push • Potential Product & Services

Offerings: Both Pull & Push• Strategic Capability Needs

Product & Service Roadmap

• Regulatory Drivers• Competition• Etc.

“Know What”

Pull

T h l & P R d

Drivers / Thrusts

Influences

Options


Pull

Time

• Progressive, Alternative & Disruptive Solutions / Processes

• Intra & Inter -Structure • Partnerships• Suppliers, VC’s, Etc.

Technology & Process Roadmap“Know How” Needs /

Requirements


Behavioural Componentsdynamic nonlinearities

Non-behavioural Componentsstatic nonlinearities

Controlling entities Controlled entities

Education

Opportunities

‘Stimulatory’ ‘Sustaining’

‘Supporting’ Discovery/Invention

Diffusion/Transformation

Beneficiation/Commercialization

Education

Research

Development

ensemble of inputs

ensemble of outputs

urs

hip

ActuateControlDirectEnergise ManipulateSteerStimulateSustain


Triple helix

Behavioural roles or functions Non-behavioural activities

entr

epre

neu

Feedback through system

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Challenges


Ren, T. 2009


…assessing the suitability of a foreign technology for a developing economy


Dunmade, I. 2002

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In the knowledge & innovation economy era, technology foresighting may be

focused on factors of production :

natural advantages and resources (land, agriculture, oil&gas, mining, etc)

Human capital and intellectual assets

R & D, systems of innovation, indigenous knowledge

Social, cultural, governance and institutional infrastructure


Physical infrastructure

Managerial capacity and sophistication


1. Inter-Ministerial Committee (thru National Planning Commission) on SETI

Foresighting directed at

WAY FORWARD?

Foresighting directed at

NEEDS

7-point Agenda

Vision 20 : 2020?

2 B D hl t A t f R h ?


2. Bay-Dohle type Act for Researchers?

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Joe E Amadi‐Echendu

Professor, Engineering & Technology Management, University of Pretoria

Director, Institute of Eng. Technology & Innovation Management, UNIPORT

Editor‐in‐Chief, Eng. Asset Management Review Series, Springer, UK

joe.amadi‐[email protected] www.up.ac.za/gstm


www.meti.uniport.edu.ng

+27 82 219 2268

+234 703 660 5034

amadi-echendu presentation.ppt

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