allied in war, divided in peace

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    BRIEFINGPAPERNO.12FEBRUARY2013

    ALLIEDINWAR,DIVIDEDINPEACE

    THE FUTUREOF ETHNICUNITYIN BURMA

    On 20 February 2013, the United

    Nationalities

    Federal

    Council

    (UNFC)

    an

    11

    member ethnic alliance1 met with the

    Burmese Governments Union Peace

    WorkingCommittee(UPWC)attheHoliday

    Inn, Chiang Mai, Thailand. The meeting,

    supportedby theNippon Foundation,was

    anattemptbyGovernmentnegotiators to

    include all relevant actors in the peace

    process.TheUNFCisseenasoneofthelast

    remaining actors to represent the various

    armed ethnic groups in the country (for

    moreinformation

    see

    BP

    No.6

    Establishing

    aCommon

    Framework)

    and

    has

    frequently

    sought

    to

    negotiate

    termsasaninclusiveethnicalliance.

    ThealliancewasformedatatimeofseriousconcernamongstethnicceasefiregroupsinrelationtotheBorder

    GuardForceissuewhichmanybelievedthreatenedtheirexistence.Consequently,twoformerceasefiregroups

    theKIOandtheNMSPalliedwithnonceasefiregroups liketheKarenNationalUniontoformanallinclusive

    bulwarkagainsttheGovernmentwhichwastoincludetheformationofasinglefederalarmy.

    AftertheRestorationCouncilofShanState/ShanStateArmySouth(RCSS/SSA)helditsfirstmeetingwiththe

    Burmesegovernmentonthe19November2011andagreedtoanominalceasefire,anumberofotherarmed

    ethnicgroupsfollowedsuit.WhiletheRCSS/SSAhadnotbeenamemberoftheUNFCothergroupsthathad

    beenfounding

    members,

    including

    the

    Karen

    National

    Union

    (KNU),

    Chin

    National

    Front

    (CNF),

    Karenni

    NationalProgressiveParty (KNPP)and theNewMonStateParty (NMSP),soonmade individualagreements

    withtheGovernment.

    While theUNFChadagreed,albeitbegrudgingly, individualmemberscouldnegotiateassingleentities, the

    variouspeaceprocessesbegan to fracture theunityof theorganisation as individualmembershavebeen

    unable to finda trulycommonconsensus inrelation tonegotiationswith theGovernment.While theUNFC

    couldhaveassumedthemantleofconsolidationandpromotingethnicunity,ithasprimarilyreliedonissuing

    statementssupportiveofethnicunitybuthasfailedtoacttocementit.

    1 Editor:LianH.Sakhong|Author:PaulKeenan

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    2 Editor:LianH.Sakhong|Author:PaulKeenan

    Perhapsoneofitsmostimportantactions,inrelationtounity,wasitsparticipationataconferenceofarmed

    ethnicmovementsheld from the2628February2012.Theconference,attendedbymembersof theKNU,

    KIO,KNPP,CNF,RCSS,NMSP,andPNLO,agreedtoacommonframeworktoguidemembersinthenegotiation

    process.2Theparticipantsagreedathreestagepeaceplan:

    1.Ceasefire,

    2. Implementationofagreements3. PoliticalDialogue

    Itwasalsoagreedthataworkinggroupwouldbeformedtofurtherdevelopacommonsetofprinciplesand

    plans for thepeaceprocess.Asa result, theWorkingGrouponEthnicCoordination (WGEC)was formed in

    June 2012. TheWGEC consistsof representatives from the 7 statesplus advisers and, following an Ethnic

    Nationalities Conference in September 2012, representatives from Civil SocietyOrganizations (2each from

    youth,womenand issuebasedCBOs).3Thegroup,which issupported financiallyby theEuroBurmaOffice,

    meetsmonthlytoupdatemembersanddiscussthepeaceprocess.4

    Asa resultof the variousWGECmeetings,UNFCmembersostensibly agreed, at a September2012ethnic

    conference,thatthefollowingsixpointswouldneedtobeaddressedforthepeaceprocesstomoveforward:

    1. MeetingofarmedandcivilsocietyorganizationstolaydownpointstobeincludedintheFrameworkforPoliticalDialogue.

    2. MeetingbetweentheUniongovernmentandthearmedmovementsrepresentativestoestablishtheFrameworkforPoliticalDialogue

    3. Conferencesoftheethnicpeopleinstateandregions4. Anationalconferenceoftheethnicnationalities5. AUnionconferenceheldinthePanglongSpiritandparticipatedbyequalnumberofrepresentatives

    fromtheethnicforces,democraticforcesandthegovernment,toagreeandsigntheUnionAccord

    6. APrecisetimeframeforthepeaceprocessTheUNFCfinallymetwithGovernmentnegotiatorUAungMinon9November2012inChiangMai,Thailand.

    Atthismeetinganinformalagreementwasreachedthatstated:

    1. Resolvepoliticalissuesbypoliticalmeans2. Governmentshouldholdpoliticaldialoguewitharmedgroupscollectivelyandnotseparately3. DiscussthefollowingtopicsduringtheupcomingformalmeetingintheMyanmarPeaceCenter(MPC)

    inYangon:frameworkforpoliticaldialogue,talkingpointsoragenda,timeline,technicalassistance

    andlogistics

    AccordingtopeacenegotiatorNyoOhnMyint,discussingthemostrecentmeeting,inFebruary2013:

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    3 Editor:LianH.Sakhong|Author:PaulKeenan

    Primarilytheywilldiscussframeworkforstartingthepeaceprocess,beginningwith:addressingways

    toadvancepoliticaldialogue;thedivisionofrevenueandresourcesbetweenthecentralgovernment

    andtheethnicstates;andhowtomaintaincommunicationchannelsforfurthertalks.5

    KhunOkker,whoattendedthemeeting,suggested thattheFebruarymeetingwasprimarilya trustbuilding

    exercise

    for

    the

    UNFC

    and

    the

    Government.

    While

    individual

    armed

    groups

    had

    spoken

    to

    U

    Aung

    Min

    throughout theirnegotiationprocessesand somehadalreadybuiltup trustwith thenegotiation team.He

    believed that theUNFCwouldbemorecautious in itsapproach inrelation to thepeaceprocess,especially

    consideringthecontinuingclasheswithUNFCmembersincludingtheKIOandSSPP/SSA

    DIVISIONSWITHINTHEARMEDETHNICRESISTANCEMOVEMENT

    WhileallarmedethnicgroupshaveparticipatedintheWGECmeetingsandgenerallyagreewithUNFCpolicy,

    manyareunwillingtorisktheirownseparatepeaceagreementsinthenameofethnicunity. Sinceitssigning

    of agreementswith the government, the ChinNational Front has graduallymoved away from theUNFC.

    AccordingtoUNFCJointGeneralSecretary2,KhunOkker,theCNFagreementwasdesignedtobeamodelfor

    allethnic

    groups,

    and,

    had

    the

    agreement

    failed,

    the

    CNFs

    strength

    politically

    and

    militarily

    would

    not

    have

    beenaserious issue for theGovernment.However,henotes, thatrealistically themodel isnotsuitable for

    much larger groups.6 Regardless, the CNF have seen their agreementwith the Government as relatively

    successful,and,unlikeothergroups,theemphasisfortheCNF isprimarilytheneedfordevelopmentasthe

    state has seen only limited armed engagement with the Burma Army over the past decade.7In fact, no

    representativesoftheChinNationalFrontwerepresentattheFebruarymeetingduetothecelebration,for

    thefirsttime,ofChinNationalDay.

    TheUNFC,andperceivedethnicunityasawhole,wasalsodealtamajorblowattheendofDecember2012at

    theKNUs15thCongress.HardlineleaderswhohadbeensupportiveofUNFCpolicieswerereplacedbymore

    moderate leaderswhowouldshifttheirpositionawayfromthealliance.TheUNFCsViceChairman2,David

    Thackerbaw,who

    had

    previously

    been

    Vice

    President

    of

    the

    Karen

    National

    Union,

    lost

    his

    position

    in

    the

    congress,and,whilestillholdingtheportfolioofallianceaffairs,hasnorealpoliticalmandatewithintheKNU.

    GeneralMutuSayPo,thenewlyelectedKNUChairman,isseenbysomeasbeingtooclosetotheGovernment,

    and, ithasbeen suggested, that theGovernmentmight tryandusehim to swayother ethnic leadersand

    thereforefurtherdecreasetheinfluenceoftheUNFC.8AccordingtoaGovernmentstatement,GeneralMutu

    hadaftermeetingwiththeGovernmentinJanuary2013:

    ...expressedKNU'sstrongdesiretobuildpeaceonceasefireandnegotiation,guaranteeingthatKNU

    hasnoplantoreverse.9

    Inaddition,thenewKaren leadershiphaveactedasmediatorsbetweentheGovernmentandtheKIO.On4

    February2013,

    ameeting

    was

    held

    in

    Ruili,

    China,

    attended

    by

    both

    KNU

    Chairman

    Mutu

    and

    General

    SecretaryKweHtooWin.Inaddition,themeetingwasalsoattendedbyBrig.SaiLuoftheRestorationCouncil

    ofShanStateandHarnYawnghweandVictorBiakLianoftheEuroBurmaOffice.Whilenosolutionhasbeen

    found to theongoingconflict, there isstrongevidence thatarmedethnicgroupsalreadywithin thepeace

    processwill act outside of the UNFC to persuade the KIO and SSPP to find an accommodationwith the

    government.

    Perhapsoneofthebiggestthreatstounityhowever, isthe inabilityand inexperienceofUNFC leaderstobe

    abletoadapttonegotiations.Afterdecadesofconflictandmilitaryruleinthecountry,leadershavefailedto

    recalibratetothecurrentsituation,andconsequentlyhavefailedto implementnewstrategies inrelationto

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    4 Editor:LianH.Sakhong|Author:PaulKeenan

    workingwiththeGovernment.WhiletheUNFChasconsistentlybeenabletoputforwardaveneerofunity,

    individualmembersarenowbeginningtodistancethemselves.FortheUNFCtoremainrelevantandtoensure

    thatethnicunity ismaintained,theUNFC leadershiphastoreassess itsposition.AsUNFCJointSecretary2,

    KhunOkker,explains,

    Its

    always

    the

    same,

    whenever

    the

    Government

    talks

    peace;

    we

    [ethnic

    groups]

    begin

    to

    separate.

    10

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    5 Editor:LianH.Sakhong|Author:PaulKeenan

    BACKGROUNDTOARMEDETHNICALLIANCESINBURMA

    InNovember1952theZinZanAgreementforaceasefirewasreachedbetweentheCPBandtheKNUandthe

    firstsubstantive

    alliance

    formed

    by

    the

    armed

    ethnic

    groups

    was

    the

    National

    Democratic

    United

    Front

    (NDUF)

    whichwascreatedon16May1959.TheNDUFunitedtheKawthooleiNationalitiesUnitedParty,theNewMon

    StateParty(NMSP)and,muchtoanumberofrightleaningKNUleadersconsternation,whorefusedtohave

    anypartinthealliance,theCommunistPartyofBurma(CPB).

    InMay1970,theNationalUnitedLiberationFront(NULF)wasformedcomprisingUNusPeoplesDemocracy

    Party (PDP and its armedwing, the Peoples Liberation Army), the KNU, and the NewMon State Party.

    ThailandallowedtheNULFtosetupcovertbasesonitssideoftheborderatMaeHongSon,MaeSariangand

    MaeSot.However,onemajor stumblingblockwas the fact thattheNULFwasdemandinga FederalUnion

    Republic.Manyethnic leaderssaw thisascounter towhat theywere,at thattime,demandingwhichwere

    theirownautonomous states. In 1972, afterKarenandMon requests tohave the rightof secessionwere

    finallyagreedtobyUNu,heresignedandwentintoretirement,leavingthePLAtofendforitself.

    In May 1973, realising that there was still a need for a committed ethnic nationalities resistance the

    RevolutionaryNationalAlliance (RNA)was formedby theKNU,ShanStateProgressParty,KayanNewLand

    PartyandtheKarenniNationalProgressivePartyatKawmoora,KarenState,Itsaimwastoestablishagenuine

    federal union of independent national states based on the principles of equality and national self

    determination.Bytheendof1973,italsoincludedtheArakaneseresistancemovement,theArakanLiberation

    Party(ALP)whichbasedrepresentativesinKarenareas.TheKNUbegantrainingthenewforcesatKawmoora

    where theywouldjoin anotherjoint nationalities organisation, the FederalNationalitiesDemocratic Front

    (FNDF). This superseded the RNA in 1975 andwas an organisationwhich specifically promoted separate

    nationalitystatesandrefusedanyBurmanmembership.

    10May1976,saw the formationof the longestsurvivingcombinedethnic force theNationalDemocratic

    Front (NDF), formed at Manerplaw, the KNUs new headquarters on theMoei River. The front initially

    consistedoftheKNU,theNMSP,theKNPP,theALP,theKIO,theShanUnitedRevolutionaryArmy(SURA)*and

    anumberofothersmallerorganizations. MahnBaZanwaselectedpresidentwhileotherKNUmembersofthe

    NDFsECincludedPadohBawYuPaw,Secretary,Lt.Gen.TamlaBawandBoSanLin.Themainobjectiveofthe

    NDFwas toestablishaFederalUnionbasedontherightofdeterminationforallnationalities.11November

    1988,sawtheformationoftheDemocraticAllianceofBurmacomprisingtheNationalDemocraticFront(NDF),

    andseveralprodemocracygroups thatsupported thearmedstruggleorhad takenuparms (chiefly theAll

    BurmaStudentDemocraticFront).

    *ActuallyShanStateProgressParty(SSPP)

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    6 Editor:LianH.Sakhong|Author:PaulKeenan

    Notes

    1TheUNFCconsistsof11armedgroups:ChinNationalFront(CNF),KarenniNationalProgressiveParty(KNPP),

    KarenNational

    Union

    (KNU),

    New

    Mon

    State

    Party

    (NMSP),

    Shan

    State

    Progress

    Party

    (SSPP)

    PaO

    National

    Liberation Organization (PNLO) Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), Arakan National Council (ANC),

    PalaungStateLiberationFront(PSLF),LahuDemocraticFront(LDU)andWaNationalOrganization(WNO)2PresentwereGenMutuSayPoe,KNU,ZipporalSein,KNU,NerdahMya,KNU,KweHtooWin,KNU,KhuOo

    Reh,KNPP,GenN.Banla,KIO,Dr Laja,KIO,ZinCung,CNF,DrSuiKha,CNF,HkunOkker,PNLO,NaiHanTha,

    NMSP,andGenYawdSerk,RCSS/SSA,seeAnsweringquestionsonWGEC,SHAN,9January2013.Inaddition,

    alsopresentasobserverswererepresentatives fromtheKloHtooBawBattalion,theKNU/KNLAPC,thenon

    BGFfactionoftheMNDAA(PengDaxun,sonofoustedleaderPengJiasheng),theKNLPandtheKNPLF(BGF)

    seeDecipheringMyanmarsPeaceProcess,BNI,January20133ResourcePersonsareKhuensai Jaiyen (SHAN),DawShirleySeng (KWAT),SawHtooHtooLay (Karen),Salai

    LianH.Sakhong(ENC),Col.KhunOkker(PNLO),CBOrepresentatives,Women:DawMoonNayLi(KWATand

    WLB),SawSanNyeinThu (RakhineWomenUnionandWLB);Youth:Naw Seng (SYCBStudentandYouth

    Congressof

    Burma),

    Kya

    Yi

    Shay

    (Nationalities

    Youth

    Forum);

    Environment:

    Ko

    Shwe

    (KESAN

    Karen

    EnvironmentalandSocialActionNetwork),KoSaiSai(BurmaRiverNetwork).StateRepresentatives:SawMya

    RazaLin(Rakhine),SinWah(Kachin),NawZipporahSein(Karen),NaiHanTha(Mon),KhuOoReh(Kayah),Dr.

    SuiKha(Chin),Solomon(Shan),Col.PengFa(ShanNorth)4AnsweringquestionsonWGEC,SHAN,9January20135Myanmargovtwantsethnicstoagreethreestepplan,Phanida,Mizzima,19February20136PersonalconversationwithKhunOkker,27February,20137PersonalConversationwithLianSakhong,CNFSupremeCouncilMember,12February20138PersonalconversationwithKhunOkker,27February,20139TheinSeinmeetsnewKNUleadership,Mizzima,7January201310PersonalconversationwithKhunOkker,27February,2013

    11KhaingSoeNaingAung,NationalDemocraticMovementofEthnicNationalities.