The Economic Recovery IndexThe Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research BriefingAn Amárach Research Briefing

October Index ResultsOctober Index Results

© Amárach Research 2009

January 2010 Results

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Timing Recovery

• All recessions end in recovery – so will this one

• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started?

• Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely

• This report summarises the Recovery Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began) to January 2010

The fieldwork was conducted on 8th to 21st January 2010

Business Cycle Peaks & TroughsBusiness Cycle Peaks & Troughs

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A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and

150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’

• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

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A Matter of Measurement• January 2010 recorded one of the strongest RI scores since April: when it comes to

the economy, substantially more people think the situation is ‘bad but stable or improving’ than think it is ‘bad and getting worse’

Recovery IndicatorRecovery Indicator• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which

ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak)

• The Recovery Indicator experienced its strongest monthly surge in January 2010, reflecting both a changing national ‘mood’ and a possible ‘seasonal boost’

8.3

16.317.8

1517

18.4 19.617.8 18.3

27.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

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Recovery Outlook 1

34% 41% 44% 42% 43% 46% 48% 41% 43%52%

Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59% 65% 58% 60% 62% 55% 51% 51% 61%

Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly

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Recovery Outlook 2

48% 48% 51% 47% 48% 48% 46%45% 45% 50%

Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59% 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 52% 56% 55%

Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly

8Other Sentiment Indicators from ARI Survey• Percent of adults who agree with each statement: December 2009 & January 2010

42% 46%

December January

News from other countries suggests the recession will end soon

17% 21%

December January

I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago

60% 66%

December January

Now is a good time to buy a house for those who

want to

26% 26%

December January

I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

29% 29%

December January

I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to

57% 60%

December January

Paying off debts is my main financial priority

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The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?April 2009 to January 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

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The Mood of the Nation 2

Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?April 2009 to January 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

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Amárach Contact Details

Gerard O’Neill - ChairmanAmárach Research

11 Kingswood Business CentreCitywest Business Campus

Dublin 24

T. (01) 410 5200E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com

W. www.amarach.comB. amarachresearch.blogspot.com

AIB Contact Details

Ronan SheridanGroup Press Officer

AIBBankcentreBallsbridge

Dublin 4

T. (01) 641 4651M. 086 388 0898