amárach economic recovery index june 2013

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing June 2013 (including analysis by main bank; main supermarket; mobile network)

© Amárach Research


Summer Time

It must be the weather: after an especially dull

and gloomy winter the mood of the nation has

lifted significantly in our June ERI survey.

In fact, our ERI Index is back to levels last

seen in the summer of 2010.

Consumers are still cautious – they’re not

rushing out to spend or borrow and they’re still

saving – but it’s certainly a welcome

improvement after the volatility of recent

months.

We see it also in the levels of happiness and

enjoyment – hitting levels not seen in several

years: it might be ‘one swallow’ but we can still

enjoy the sunshine while it lasts…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out four years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

June 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 16th to 22nd June 2013 inclusive.

We have now added historical tables to the

report following requests from a number of

readers.


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our ERI index in June 2013 jumped to 24.5 – it’s highest since July 2010:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, June 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e


A Matter of Measurement

May’13: 44% June ’13: 37%

May ’13: 29% June ’13: 32%

May ’13: 24% June ’13: 27%

May ’13: 2% June ’13: 4%

May ’13: 1% June ’13: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The improvement we saw in May has continued straight through to June in our survey:


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Jun-09 52 27 19 2 0 17.8

Jun-10 33 36 27 3 1 25.3

Jun-11 46 28 23 2 1 20.4

Jun-12 50 29 20 1 0 18.2

May-13 44 29 24 2 1 21.3

Jun-13 37 32 27 4 0 24.5


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Jun-09 44 51 65 61

Jun-10 42 45 54 50

Jun-11 23 34 47 44

Jun-12 25 36 43 45

May-13 25 39 45 46

Jun-13 33 40 48 46


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial

priority is to

pay off my

debts as

quickly as

possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Jun-09 16

Jun-10 22 24 61 30

Jun-11 14 25 59 23

Jun-12 15 25 55 23

May-13 18 24 56 24

Jun-13 21 28 54 23


Bank Borrowers I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, and age of children):

“I would be happy to borrow money from the bank if I needed to”


June 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Child’n

under 6

Child’n

6-17

Child’n

17+

Weighted Sample 1001 494 507 174 225 176 157 269 180 219 334

Strongly Agree 7% 9% 5% 5% 10% 7% 6% 6% 9% 8% 7%

Slightly Agree 16% 19% 14% 16% 23% 20% 11% 12% 23% 17% 10%

Neither/Nor 12% 14% 11% 17% 12% 10% 10% 11% 13% 11% 12%

Slightly Disagree 23% 23% 24% 32% 20% 28% 18% 21% 21% 21% 20%

Strongly Disagree 38% 33% 43% 27% 29% 33% 53% 46% 32% 39% 49%


Bank Borrowers II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank/supermarket/mobile):

“I would be happy to borrow money from the bank if I needed to”


June 2013 TOTAL AIB BOI PTSB Ulster

Bank Tesco

Dunne

Stores Aldi Lidl O2 Vodafone

Weighted Sample 1001 342 301 158 124 339 159 215 132 220 370

Strongly Agree 7% 7% 9% 5% 6% 8% 6% 9% 5% 6% 6%

Slightly Agree 16% 16% 16% 18% 20% 21% 17% 11% 14% 17% 15%

Neither/Nor 12% 14% 10% 5% 18% 13% 9% 8% 14% 13% 12%




NEW: Buy Irish I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I always buy Irish when I can”



under 6

Child’n

6-17

Child’n

17+

Weighted Sample 1001 494 507 174 225 176 157 269 180 219 334

Strongly Agree 23% 24% 22% 16% 24% 21% 21% 29% 22% 19% 26%

Slightly Agree 28% 25% 31% 31% 24% 28% 25% 32% 28% 28% 29%

Neither/Nor 22% 23% 22% 27% 22% 21% 26% 18% 23% 25% 22%




NEW: Buy Irish II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank/supermarket/mobile):

“I always buy Irish when I can”



Bank Tesco

Dunne


Weighted Sample 1001 342 301 158 124 339 159 215 132 220 370

Strongly Agree 19% 24% 28% 26% 21% 30% 25% 18% 24% 22% 19%

Slightly Agree 28% 31% 27% 27% 28% 23% 25% 30% 29% 31% 28%

Neither/Nor 23% 22% 22% 22% 24% 23% 22% 24% 21% 23% 23%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to June 2013


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

'10

June

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

'11

June

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr'12

June

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

June

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to June 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

0F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

3F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Emotions Summary Table

% Enjoyment Happ-

iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Jun-09 58 52 48 42 32 17 20 17

Jun-10 55 53 41 33 29 15 22 16

Jun-11 56 51 40 36 26 17 19 12

Jun-12 58 52 39 35 27 19 22 15

May-13 52 52 44 41 34 22 25 18

Jun-13 60 55 39 37 30 19 28 17


% saying Yes:


Changing Moods I



under 6

Child’n

6-17

Child’n

17+

Weighted Sample 1001 494 507 174 225 176 157 269 180 219 334

Enjoyment 60% 63% 57% 60% 52% 61% 54% 68% 49% 52% 63%

Happiness 55% 54% 57% 67% 59% 54% 43% 53% 56% 53% 53%

Stress 39% 37% 41% 41% 47% 44% 38% 29% 50% 48% 34%

Worry 37% 32% 41% 41% 43% 36% 41% 26% 45% 41% 31%

Anxiety 30% 27% 32% 30% 34% 34% 31% 22% 39% 39% 26%

Boredom 29% 30% 29% 52% 36% 28% 21% 14% 28% 25% 19%

Physical Pain 28% 31% 25% 21% 29% 23% 29% 33% 29% 32% 31%

Sadness 19% 17% 21% 26% 24% 21% 15% 12% 24% 24% 14%

Anger 17% 18% 15% 24% 22% 20% 11% 9% 25% 21% 10%

Fear 9% 9% 10% 10% 14% 7% 10% 5% 12% 13% 7%


% saying Yes: June 2013


Changing Moods II



Bank Tesco

Dunne


Weighted Sample 1001 342 301 158 124 339 159 215 132 220 370

Enjoyment 60% 60% 60% 61% 58% 62% 62% 56% 59% 59% 60%

Happiness 55% 55% 56% 50% 64% 57% 58% 53% 56% 56% 54%

Stress 39% 36% 41% 43% 44% 40% 37% 42% 33% 37% 39%

Worry 37% 35% 37% 38% 40% 35% 38% 39% 39% 37% 35%

Anxiety 30% 28% 27% 35% 35% 32% 26% 30% 33% 29% 30%

Boredom 29% 31% 28% 29% 34% 32% 32% 28% 25% 26% 26%

Physical Pain 28% 27% 24% 31% 31% 27% 29% 30% 30% 25% 27%

Sadness 19% 19% 17% 17% 22% 19% 15% 26% 18% 19% 17%

Anger 17% 16% 15% 18% 19% 19% 14% 21% 14% 17% 15%

Fear 9% 9% 8% 10% 10% 9% 9% 10% 11% 10% 8%


% saying Yes: June 2013 (by main bank/supermarket/mobile)


ERI Resources

We have created a dedicated resource

on the Amárach website for those

interested in exploring our Economic

Recovery Index further.

It includes links to previous issues as

well as to a spreadsheet containing

monthly values for all the component

parts of the ERI – and more besides –

going right back to April 2009.

There is also a link to a special data

visualisation facility we have created in

partnership with Delphi Analytics.

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index june 2013

Economy & Finance

economic recovery

eri index

economic situation

amrach research

main banksupermarketmobile

selected statements

day yesterday

buy irish