Adrian Hilton

Climate Change and Climate Change AdaptationPossible Interventions?

North East Domestic Energy Forum

Regional Climate Change Co-ordinator

Adrian.hilton@northeastassembly

0191 4978451

Increasing scientific concern:

“There is no bigger problem than climate change. The threat is quite simple, it’s a threat to our civilization”.

Professor Sir David King: the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of the Office of Science and Technology

Increasing urgency:

“There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change if strong collective action starts now” Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the Government Economics Service and Adviser to the Government on the economics of climate change and development

IPCC: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level (see Figure SPM-3). {3.2, 4.2, 5.5}”

Adaptation

3 Key Components

OneOne

Three

Two

What is Climate Change Adaptation?

measures to moderate and cope with climate change impacts

not a one-off activity, but a continuous and incremental set of activities.

Adaptation

Physical actions e.g:

raising the height of sea defences

Increasing ventilation / cooling in buildings

Building ‘Adaptive Capacity’ e.g:

Raising awareness of impacts

Integrating CC into continuity planning & risk mgt

Tools / context etc for decision makers

Why do we need Adaptation?

Climate change is already happening

Stopping GHGs today will not prevent it

CC over next 30-50 yrs due to historic emissions

Adaptation

Unavoidable Climate Change is long lasting.

‘Resilience’ component:

Impacts assessed

Adaptive actions identified & prioritised

Actions implemented

Adaptation

‘vulnerability threshold’ raised

Improved business continuity

Significant risk aversion

Improved public perception

Reduced future costs / liabilities

Improved ‘Adaptive Capacity’

Coping range

Vulnerability

Time

Cli

mat

e v

aria

ble

Critical threshold

Planning time horizon

Future

Implementationof adaptation

Decisionto adapt

Lag

Ne

w c

op

ing

ra

ng

e

New critical threshold

PresentPast

Slide courtesy of UKCIP

Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation

We need to:

Build ‘adaptive capacity’

Identify priorities for adaptation

Identify actions that will improve the resilience of:

Adaptation

Development,

Business,

Services,

Infrastructure,

Communities - esp. Existing Housing stock

The Economy,

the ‘Natural’ environment

Climate Change and the UK

•The UK climate will become warmer.

•The temperature of coastal waters will also increase, although not as rapidly as over land.

•High summer temperatures will become more frequent, whilst very cold winters will become increasingly rare.

Climate Change and the UK

•Winters will become wetter and summers may become drier throughout the UK

•Snowfall amounts will decrease throughout the UK.

•Heavy winter precipitation will become more frequent

Climate Change and the UK

•Relative sea level will continue to rise around most of the UK's shoreline.

•Extreme sea levels will be experienced more frequently

•Overall there will be a significant change in weather patterns

Impacts

Impacts

•Wear Climate Change Adaptation Study (Feb 2007)

•NE Climate Change Adaptation Study (Jan / Feb 2008)

•Climate Change Thresholds Study (proposed)

Existing Housing Stock

Not designed with future climate in mind

Due to demand for property, low demolition rates

At current replacement rates existing stock will make up 60 – 80% of housing stock in 2050

These properties will be vulnerable to impacts

Adaptation

Overheating

There are some general design and thermal principles which govern a house’s vulnerability to overheating:

The outdoor temperature is the starting point for overheating

excessive insolation – solar windows

Inadequate ventilation

Inadequate insulation

Adaptation – increase thermal mass

improved ventilation / insulation

Modification of fenestration

Shading

Adaptation

Flooding

Water penetrates through construction of a wall but also through cracks, defects, service penetrations and other openings - maintenance and repair

Move services meters to at least one metre above floor level

Move electrics to at least one metre above floor level with cables dropping from first floor level

Put one-way valves into drainage pipes. This prevents contaminated floodwater entering houses

Mount boilers onto the wall above the level that floodwater is likely to reach

Install drainage on driveways

Replace mineral insulation within internal partition walls with closed cell insulation

Adaptation

Flooding

Replace gypsum plaster with a more water resistant material, such as lime plaster or cement render on

Fix plasterboards horizontally on timber framed walls rather than vertically

Fit kitchen units with extendable plastic or stainless steel feet or support on raised brick or stonework.

Replace chipboard kitchen/bathroom units with plastic or similar units.

Look at barrier devices for doors / covers for airbricks

Adaptation

Storm events

Whilst an increase in the frequency of storm events, particularly wind speeds, is difficult to model there is little doubt that the frequency of such events is likely to increase:

Roof - the single greatest cause of destruction due to high winds is failure to tie the roof securely to its supporting walls or posts.

Avoid openings that can't be closed off during storm events. High winds penetrate the building and create outward pressures on walls and roof.

Ensure good maintenance of fabric.

Examine tile pegging

Adaptation

STERN:

Adaptation policy is crucial for dealing with the unavoidable impacts of climate change, but it has been under-emphasised in many countries.

There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change if strong collective action starts now.

Adaptation

Emerging Legal Imperative:

• Climate Change is now regarded as ‘Reasonably Forseable”• Professionals will need to explicitly address climate issues• The Freedom of Information Act • Both individuals and the organisations they represent may be

liable

We’ve got the data – we need to use it (wisely!)

A Vision for the Region…..

A Region which has addressed mitigation and reaped the benefits

A Region that is resilient and well adapted to Climate Change

A Region that has exploited the opportunities

A Region that has built ‘Adaptive Capacity’

THE Region that others turn to in regard to Climate Change

Working together we can achieve this

Over to you…..

….What adaptation measures a practicable to integrate into existing interventions?