administration’s outlook of energy · source: eia, annual energy outlook 2012 history 2010...

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

The Energy Information

Administration’s Outlook of Energy

Supply and Demand

The Future of Fuel: Toward the Next Decade of U.S. Energy Policy

Resources For the Future

November 28, 2012 | Washington, DC

Michael Schaal

Director, Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Analysis

What’s included in EIA’s

Reference Case?

2 Michael Schaal

RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012

• Generally assumes current laws

and regulations

• Some grey areas regarding

potential legislation

• Includes technologies that are

commercial or reasonably expected

to become commercial

• Assumptions to the AEO are also

available at

eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions



Energy use grows slowly over the projection in response to a slow

and extended economic recovery and improving energy efficiency

3

U.S. primary energy consumption

quadrillion Btu per year

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012

History Projections 2010

37%

25%

21%

9%

7%

1%

32%

26%

20%

11%

9%

4%

Shares of total U.S. energy

Nuclear

Oil and other liquids

Liquid biofuels

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

(excluding liquid biofuels)

Michael Schaal


Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline;

per-capita energy use also declines

4

index, 2005=1


0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Per dollar

Per capita

CO2 per GDP

History Projections 2010

Michael Schaal


2%

Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas production

sources

5

U.S. dry gas production

trillion cubic feet per year


Non-associated offshore

Projections History

Associated with oil

Coalbed methane

Non-associated onshore

Shale gas

2010

10%

6%

9%

7%

21%

23%

9%

9%

6%

49%

Alaska 1%

Tight gas 26%

22%

Michael Schaal


U.S. imports of liquid fuels continue to decline due to increased

production of gas liquids and biofuels and greater fuel efficiency

6

U.S. liquid fuels supply

million barrels per day

Projections History

Natural gas plant liquids

Petroleum production

Biofuels including imports

Net petroleum imports

15%

12%

36%

36%

10%

49%

36%

5%

Liquids from coal 1%

Energy Information Administration

AEO2012, June 2012

2010


While total electricity generation grows by 21% over the

projection, the annual rate of growth slows

7

percent growth (3-year rolling average)

Projections

History

Period Annual Growth

1950s 9.8

1960s 7.3

1970s 4.7

1980s 2.9

1990s 2.4

2000-2010 1.0

2010-2035 0.8

2010


Michael Schaal


18%

15%

Electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by

growth in renewables and natural gas

8

electricity net generation

trillion kilowatthours per year


2010

24%

20%

45%

10%

1%

38%

28%

1%

Nuclear

Oil and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

Michael Schaal


Non-hydro renewable sources more than double between 2010

and 2035

9

non-hydropower renewable generation

billion kilowatthours per year


Wind

Solar

Biomass

Geothermal Waste

Industrial CHP

Power sector

Advanced biofuels

cogeneration

2010

Michael Schaal


10 Michael Schaal


Assuming no new policies, energy-related CO2 grows by 2%

through 2035

2% growth

Transportation

1,876 (33%)

Buildings and

Industrial

1,492 (26%) Electric Power

2,271 (40%)

2010

5,639 million metric tons

2035

5,728 million metric tons

Transportation

1,871 (33%)

Buildings and

Industrial

1,527 (27%) Electric Power

2,330 (41%)

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2012

For more information

11

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

EIA Information Center

[email protected]

Our average response time is within three

business days.

(202) 586-8800

24-hour automated information line about EIA

and frequently asked questions.

Michael Schaal


http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

mailto:[email protected]

Backup Slides

12 Energy Information Administration

AEO2012, June 2012

Policy Change Possibilities

13

• Greenhouse gas legislation

• Renewable fuels standards

• Production Tax Credit

• Appliance efficiency standards

• Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards

• Investment tax credits

Michael Schaal


AEO 2012 Scenarios

14

•Reference

•High and low economic growth (2)

•High and low oil price (2)

•Demand sector technology cases (2011, High, and Buildings Best Available) (3)

•Integrated high and low technology (applied to demand sectors; renewable; and electric power and

refinery sector fossil; and nuclear) (2)

•High and low coal cost (2)

•High and low estimated ultimate recovery cases and high technically recoverable resources (3)

•High and low nuclear (2)

•Low renewable cost (1)

Liquid Fuels Market Module (1)

•Policy related: Extended Policy, No Sunset, carbon dioxide allowance fee ($15 and $25), and 5-year

investment recovery with reference and with low natural gas prices (7)

•Proposed light-duty vehicle CAFE standards; advanced battery technology; heavy-duty truck natural

gas potential (3)

Michael Schaal


U.S. dependence on imported petroleum continues to decline

15

U.S. liquid fuel supply


Projections History 2010

Consumption

Domestic supply

Net petroleum imports 49%

36%

Michael Schaal


60%

2005


16

miles per gallon


2010 Projections History

Summary of standards

2012-2016: 34.1 mpg CAFE average (based on NHTSA vehicle footprint sales distribution)

2020: 35 mpg by statute

2017-2025: Reference case does not include proposed rulemaking from December 2011

Michael Schaal


New light duty vehicle fuel economy reaches almost 38 mpg by 2035

in the Reference case, which does not include proposed standards for

MY2017 to MY2025 vehicles

Gasoline-only vehicles without hybrid technologies decline as a

share of new vehicle sales

17

U.S. light car and truck sales

millions


Michael Schaal


U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic

production – including biofuels – and greater efficiency

18

U.S. liquid fuels consumption



0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

2010 Low High High Low High High

EUR TRR

2025 2035

49%

5%

36%

10%

Natural gas plant liquids

Other non- petroleum

petroleum supply

Biofuels

Net petroleum imports

Domestic

including imports

EUR EUR TRR EUR supply Reference Reference

Michael Schaal


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2022 2035

Other Advanced

Biofuels grow, but fall short of RFS target in

2022, exceed it in 2035 billions ethanol-equivalent gallons


Legislated RFS in 2022 Biodiesel

Net imports

Cellulosic biofuels

Corn ethanol

19

Michael Schaal


Success in the Barnett prompted companies to look at other

shale formations in the U.S.

20

Michael Schaal


Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown

dramatically over the past few years

21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Eagle Ford

Bakken

Granite Wash

Bone Spring

Monterey

Woodford

Niobrara

Spraberry

Austin Chalk

tight oil production for select plays

million barrels of oil per day

Sources shale gas: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of September 2012 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.

Source tight oil: Drilling Info (formerly HPDI), Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through June 2012.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Rest of US

Bakken

Eagle Ford

Marcellus

Haynesville

Woodford

Fayetteville

Barnett

Antrim

shale gas production (dry)

billion cubic feet per day

Michael Schaal

3rd Annual Bakken Summit, Denver, CO , October 24th, 2012

Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption

22

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

U.S. dry gas

trillion cubic feet per year


Projections History 2010

Consumption

Domestic supply

Net imports

Michael Schaal


Technically recoverable dry gas resources

23

U.S. dry gas resources

trillion cubic feet

*Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in

previously published documentation.


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2,203

273

482

1,449

AEO Edition

Unproved Shale Gas

Unproved Other Gas (including Alaska* and offshore)

Proved Reserves (all types and locations)

Cumulative Production Since 2000

Michael Schaal


Levelized electricity costs for new power plants, excluding

subsidies, 2020 and 2035

Adam Sieminski

AEO2012 24

costs for new U.S. electricity power plants

2010 cents per kilowatthour


2035

2020

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