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ADDENDUM 2018 Transmission Capability Assessment for Renewables Integration

FEBRUARY 2019

The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) is committed to providing guidance to market participants and stakeholders on where transmission capability is available, and optimal areas to seek connection to Alberta’s grid. In 2018, the first comprehensive Transmission Capability Assessment for Renewables Integration report (2018 Assessment) was published, along with a complementary interactive map, to help address these specific information needs.

This report is an Addendum to the 2018 Assessment. It provides an update on where transmission system capability is available in central east and southern Alberta, subsequent to the December 2018 announcement of the results of the most recent Renewable Electricity Program (REP) auctions. A total of 763 megawatts (MW) of wind generation was acquired through REP Rounds 2 and 3, with projects from both Rounds scheduled to be in commercial operation by June 30, 2021.

The Addendum to the 2018 Transmission Capability Assessment for Renewables Integration report is an update on the transmission system’s integration capability following the allocation of generation through Rounds 2 and 3 of the Renewable Electricity Program.

1.0 Executive summary

11.0 Executive summary

Addendum - 2018 Transmission Capability Assessment for Renewables Integration

HIGHLIGHTS

�� If the transmission system is optimized, there is an upper limit of 470 MW of remaining integration capability in the south.

�� Optimal distribution of the 470 MW of integration capability in the south is 340 MW in the southwest and 130 MW in the southeast.

�� To optimize the use of the existing transmission system through southwest and southeast Alberta, the AESO assumes the connection of new generation to 240 kilovolt (kV) collector systems.

�� When the transmission system is optimized, capability in the central east area is zero; however, a small amount of generation can still be integrated into this area, recognizing this could decrease overall system capability.

�� The 2019 Transmission Capability Assessment for Renewables Integration report will be published by the end of the first quarter (Q1) of 2019. The 2019 Assessment will include the impact of the near-term transmission system developments for renewables integration, in addition to the REP Rounds 2 and 3 generation allocations included in this Addendum.

22.0 Study overview

REP Rounds 2 and 3 built off the tremendous success of Round 1 by demonstrating significant competitive interest from local and international investors eager to develop renewable generation projects in Alberta.

2.0 Study overview


BACKGROUND

Renewable Electricity Program

The Alberta electric system’s capability to integrate new generation is evolving as REP competitions progress. This initiative is successfully encouraging the development of large-scale renewable electricity generation to meet the province’s target of having 30 per cent of electricity produced by renewable generation by 2030 (the 30 by 30 target).

The 30 per cent target requires the addition of approximately 5,000 MW of electricity generation from renewable resources, and assumes that wind and solar are the most economical resources that will develop. Emissions from coal-generated electricity will also be phased out by 2030.

The results of REP Round 1 were announced in December 2017, exceeding the original 400 MW target, with nearly 600 MW of renewable generation scheduled to come online by the end of 2019. The next two REP Rounds also exceeded expectations, with a December 2018 announcement confirming that an additional 763 MW of wind generation will be delivered through Rounds 2 and 3 (363 MW and 400 MW respectively). Projects from both Rounds are scheduled to come online by June 30, 2021.

Capability Assessment

The inaugural Transmission Capability Assessment for Renewables Integration report was published in June 2018, providing an update to the Renewable Generation Integration Plan included in the AESO’s 2017 Long-term Transmission Plan (2017 LTP). It looks forward to 2021 and identifies transmission system capability following the REP Round 1 announcement.

The 2018 Assessment and subsequent integration capability studies are specific to central east and southern Alberta because it is anticipated that the majority of renewable generation will continue to develop in these wind and solar resource-rich areas.

ADDENDUM OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE

This report is an Addendum to the 2018 Assessment, and provides an update on transmission system integration capability following the allocation of generation awarded through REP Rounds 2 and 3.

The scope includes an evaluation of the overall renewables integration capability in the central east and southern Alberta study region (Figure 1) in 2021, when all projects from the contracts awarded in REP Rounds 1 through 3 are in service.

�� REP Round 1: 600 MW of renewable energy is scheduled to come online by the end of 2019.

�� REP Rounds 2 and 3: approximately 763 MW of renewable energy is scheduled to come online by June 30, 2021.

Figure 1: Study region


Calgary

Lethbridge

MedicineHat

EdmontonLloydminster

WINDYFLATS138S

BIGSTONE86S

SAUNDERSLAKE 289S

NEWELL2075S

WESTBROOKS

28S

WAREJUNCTION

132S

BATTLERIVER757S

EASTCROSSFIELD 64S

SHEERNESS807S

JENNER275S

BOWMANTON244S

LANFINE959S

PEMUKAN932S

HANSMANLAKE 650S

CYPRESS562S

ALBERTANEWSPRINT

122S

BRAZEAU62S

CHERHILL338S

NORTHBARRHEAD69S

WOLFCREEK288S

NEVIS766S

CASSILS324S

LANGDON102S

PEIGAN59S

CLOVER BAR987S

HALKIRK615S

CASTLE ROCKRIDGE 205S

JANET74S

REDDEER

63S

TRAVERS554S

COYOTELAKE 963S

CORDEL755S

WILLESDENGREEN68S

SC1266S

HAZELWOOD287S

LETHBRIDGENORTH 370S

BLACKSPRINGRIDGE 485S

MILO356S

DEERLAND13S

OAKLAND946S

AMOCOEMPRESS

163S

SAGITAWAH77S

BENALTO17S

BEDDINGTONSS-162

NORTHCALDER

37S

PICTUREBUTTE 120S

WHITLA251S

SUNDANCE310P

FIDLER312S

SS-65

FOOTHILLS237S

GAETZ87S

HEARTLAND12S

TINCHEBRAY972S

PAINTEARTH863S

NILREM574S

METISKOW648S

ANDERSON801S

KEEPHILLS320P

SARCEE42S

WABAMUN19S

CROSSINGS511S

EASTCALGARY 5S

ELLERSLIE89S

GOOSELAKE 103S

BENNETT520S

SHEPARDSS-25

EDP Renewables Canada Ltd.Sharp Hills Wind Farm

248.4 MW

Enel Green PowerCanada, Inc.

Riverview Wind Farm115 MW

Capital Power CorporationWhitla Wind

201.6 MW

Enel Green Power Canada, Inc.Phase 2 of Castle RockRidge Wind Power Plant30.6 MW

EDF Renewables Canada Inc.Cypress Wind Power Project

201.6 MW

Potentia Renewables Inc.Stirling Wind Project113 MW

Potentia Renewables Inc.Jenner Wind Power Project 271.4 MW

TransAlta CorporationWindrise Wind207 MW

Potentia Renewables Inc.Jenner Wind Power Project122.4 MW

Capstone InfrastructureCorporationBuffalo Atlee 1/2/348.3 MW

Substation

REP Round1 ProjectsREP Round2 ProjectsREP Round3 Projects

240 kV Line

Central East0 MW CapabilitySoutheast130 MW CapabilitySouthwest340 MW Capability

Capability shown for each study arearepresents the optimal scenario forrenewable generation integration.

Optimal project connections will be viathe 240 kV system shown in the map.

32.0 Study overview

43.0 Assumptions

If the transmission system is optimized, renewable generation integration capability in southern Alberta is 470 MW, with 340 MW in the southwest and 130 MW in the southeast.

3.0 Assumptions


STUDY ASSUMPTIONS

The following system model and assumptions were used to assess the capability of the existing transmission system:

�� Central east, southwest and southeast areas were studied.

�� Limiting scenarios identified in the 2018 Assessment were assumed to remain unchanged.

�� The same base cases from the 2018 Assessment were used, with the system topology updated to include REP Rounds 2 and 3.

�� Future renewable generation:

- is assumed not to be located in central east Alberta, based on the conclusion in the 2018 Assessment that this is not the optimal location for new generation integration (the findings are still considered to be valid)

- is assumed to be connected to 240 kV substations in order to efficiently use existing transmission capability and minimize impact on local constraints

COMPARISON WITH 2018 ASSESSMENT

�� The 2018 Assessment identified 1,200 MW of remaining capability in the south and central east areas after the addition of capability awarded in REP Round 1, based on transmission system optimization.

�� After integrating REP Rounds 2 and 3, there is 470 MW of remaining capability in southwest and southeast Alberta (340 MW and 130 MW respectively).

�� Figure 2 shows the remaining capability identified in the 2018 Assessment compared to this Addendum.


53.0 Assumptions

INTERACTIVE MAP

The Optimal Integration Capability interactive map that was published with the 2018 Assessment has been updated. Features on the map include:

�� A customizable basemap, allowing the user to choose between multiple map backgrounds including satellite imagery.

�� A measuring tool allowing the user to calculate distances or areas on the map, such as the distance from a potential project location to the nearest transmission infrastructure.

�� The study region (central east, southwest and southeast areas) and updated capability for each area.

�� 240 kV transmission lines and substations.

�� The location of projects selected for REP Rounds 1, 2 and 3.

The interactive map can be found at aeso.ca following the path: Grid > Long-term Transmission Plan.

Figure 2: Comparison of remaining capability between 2018 Assessment and 2019 Addendum

64.0 Next Steps

Transmission Capability Assessment for Renewables Integration reports and the complementary interactive map are key resources for current and prospective market participants, providing direction on where capability is available, and optimal areas to site projects and connect to the system.

4.0 Next Steps


The AESO will publish a new Transmission Capability Assessment for Renewables Integration report by the end of Q1 2019. The updated 2019 Assessment will include the impact of the near-term transmission system developments for renewables integration, in addition to the generation allocations through REP Rounds 2 and 3 included in this Addendum.

The three projects identified in the AESO’s 2017 LTP to enable Alberta’s 30 by 30 renewables target include:

�� The Provost−to−Edgerton and Nilrem−to−Vermilion transmission development in the central east area is anticipated to be in service by 2022. This project’s addition of incremental capability to the transmission system is planned to follow the June 2021 commencement of commercial operation from REP Rounds 2 and 3.

�� The planned Central East Transfer-out and Chapel Rock–Pincher Creek transmission developments, in the central east and southwest areas respectively, are the most effective transfer-out transmission development projects. Both projects will be staged with milestones that introduce flexibility to enable the addition of incremental transfer capability as renewables generation development evolves.

02/19

Alberta Electric System Operator

2500, 330-5th Avenue SW Calgary, AB T2P 0L4

Phone: 403-539-2450 www.aeso.ca

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