acnielsen data basics beacon united 2 copyright © 2012 the nielsen company. confidential and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Agenda
• Retail Sales Basics– Data Collection– Understanding the Data– Dimension Review
• Fact Review– Volume Sales– ACV– Velocity– Merchandising– Pricing
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ACNielsen Data Sources
Consumer Information: • Consumer behavior
•Who’s buying, how are they buying, etc
Bob’s Grocery
Retail Sales Information:• Retail sales environment
•What’s selling, how is it selling, etc
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ACNielsen Data Collection & Processing
• Items scanned at Checkout via UPC code• Price, Quantity, UPC and Item Description Recorded• Scanner Tape and Price Tape Sent to ACNielsen or Data Sent via
Modem
ACNielsen Data Processing
Scanner Data
Causal Data
Displays - Collected by Store Auditors once a weekFeatures - Centrally Collected and Coded Daily
Census and Sample based data are integrated for respective markets
DATADATADATADATADATA
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ACNielsen Data Collection & Processing
• Census Sample Integration (CSI) means enhanced consistency and accuracy
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ACNielsen Service Offerings
Grocery – Food $2MM+ Drug Mass Merchandisers Walmart Warehouse Clubs including Sam’s Club Dollar stores Military outlets Other Retail Measurement Services:
Convenience Stores Liquor Stores Ethnic Markets
ACNielsen collects data from the following channels:
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Data Collection: Volume & Price
• Data is collected by UPC• Units• Price
• Characteristics allow UPC’s to be aggregated• Categories• Segments • SKU’s
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• MarketWhere did the Purchases Occur?
• ProductWhat Level are You Interested In?(Category, Segment, Manufacturer, Brand, UPC)
• PeriodWhen did the Sales Take Place?
• FactHow will You Measure Performance?
Four Data Dimensions
2004
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Beacon United Databases
• PLN_Full_L2– 47 Retailer Trading Areas
with Remaining Markets
• Meijers_Cat0009
• Walgreen_Cat0006
• Target_Cat7
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Retailer Offerings: Trading Area Retailer defined geography Census Based For example, Total Stop & Shop If Trading Area’s are available it is the preferred view Remaining Markets are all of an accounts competitors in a
specified geography
Market Dimension
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ACNielsen Boston 2MM+Food Market
Stop & Shop Trading Area
Market Dimension
What’s the difference between a Market and a TA?
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Product DimensionProducts are built from the lowest level possible - the individual UPC - which serves as the primary building block for all other product levels
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Data Delivery: Periods
• PLN_Full_L2, Meijers_Cat0009, Walgreen_Cat0006, Target_Cat7
– Weekly Data– Updated Monthly– 2 Years Weekly/Monthly History– Approximately 2 Weeks Delivery from Close of Period
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ACNielsen Collects Two Scanned Facts...
$1.99$2.86
$.74
Units
Price
SMITH’s
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• Units–Number of packages scanned for a product class or item during a specific
time period projected to the respective universe
• Equivalent Units– Same as above with the exception that each scanned package is exploded
by a conversion rate– i.e. Pound Basis, Ounce Basis
• Dollars–The measurement of the dollars spent by the customer on items during a
specific time period– Calculated not collected Computation: Projected item sales X Item selling price in each store
Fact Dimension
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Volume Share
• Share is a Calculation Based on Unit volume, Eq. Volume or Dollar Volume.
• Think of Share as a “Subset” of Volume.• Share Enables You to Answer the Question:
HOW IMPORTANT IS MY PRODUCT TO THE CATEGORY?
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Percent Change vs. Point Change
• Percent change is used when comparing VOLUME growth across periods/products/markets.
• Point change is used when comparing SHARE growth across periods/products/markets.
$ Vol$ Pct Chg vs YAG $ Share
$ Shr Chg vs YAG
10,656,589 11.3 74.5 0.67,689,708 13.3 53.7 1.42,927,322 7.3 20.5 (0.6)
Product B’s Dollar Volume increased 13.3% over YAG. Product B’s Dollar Share increased 1.4 points over YAG.
Fact Dimension
Product AProduct BProduct C
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All Commodity Volume
• A measure of the total DOLLAR volume of retail sales for a particular outlet or channel type.
• It includes all items that are sold in that store type
• %ACV serves as a good weighting factor when measuring distribution. It indicates how many consumers have the opportunity to purchase the product.
• Higher ACV stores serve more consumers– All stores are NOT created equal.
Fact Dimension
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All Commodity Volume $ (ACV) Example
The 7 Food Stores In This Market Sell $300,000 Per Week
D) $36,000 (12%)
A) $36,000 (12%)
C) $36,000 (12%)
SMITH’s Grocery Chain* Has 3 stores in the market doing $132,000 per week for a total of 44% of the ACV
JONES’s Grocery Chain* Has 4 stores in the market doing $168,000 per week for a total of 56% of the ACV
Fact Dimension
C) $48,000 (16%)
B) $48,000 (16%)
A) $60,000 (20%) B) $36,000 (12%)
SMITH’s
SMITH’s
SMITH’s
JONES’s JONES’s
JONES’s JONES’s
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All Commodity Volume $ (ACV) Example
If these 3 stores sold your product during the week, what percent of the total ACV sold your product?
Fact Dimension
B) $48,000 (16%)
A) $60,000 (20%) B) $36,000 (12%)SMITH’s
JONES’s JONES’s
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All Commodity Volume $ (ACV) ExampleIf these 3 stores sold your product during the week, what percent of
the total ACV sold your product? And the answer is…
Fact Dimension
B) $48,000 (16%)
A) $60,000 (20%)
B) $36,000 (12%)
$48,000 (16%) ACV +
$36,000 (12%) ACV =
$60,000 (20%) ACV +
$144,000 or 48% ACV
SMITH’s
JONES’s
JONES’s
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Example Of % ACV (3 Stores)Item A Sales
Week 1
X
40%
Week 2
X
X
60%
Week 3
X
X
60%
Week 4
X
35%
4 Weeks
X
X
X
100%
Store A (40% ACV)
Store B (35% ACV)
Store C (25% ACV)
% ACV Selling
ACV is non-additive (unless averaging) - 40% + 60% + 60% + 35% = 195%Average ACV = 195/4 = 48.8%ACV cannot be greater than 100%
Fact Dimension
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A Review Of “% Of ACV Selling”
• The Percent of the ACV That Sold at Least One Unit of an Item During a Weekly orMonthly Time Period as Predefined onYour Database.
• It Does Not Account for Items That Are Stocked in the Store During the Period, But Did Not Scan (Sell) During The Period.
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How Do I Know Which %ACV Measure To Use?
When Concerned With . . . Use . . .
Out of StocksShort-Term Events
Average Weekly %ACV
What is Highest Distribution
During a Given Period (New Items)
Max %ACV
Monthly %ACVTracking Long-Term Distribution Trends
Achieved in a Mkt or Acct?
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Another Way To Look At A Sales Rate Is With Sales Per Million Dollars Of ACV
Definition:The Sales Of A Product For Every$1,000,000 Of All Commodity VolumeTo Which That Product Is ExposedAt Retail.
• Since “Sales Per Million” Is A Sales Rate Based On Activity Only In Stores Handling, There Are Several Useful Applications Of This ACNielsen Measure.
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Sales Per Million Dollars Of ACV
Brand Y Annual Sales: $ 5,834,936
Annual Market ACV : $3,240,000,000
To Compute Sales Per Million Dollars Of ACV...
$5,834,936_________= $1,801
$ 3,240
This Means That For Every $1,000,000 In Food Store Sales, A Typical Store Sells $1,801 Of Brand Y.
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A competitive item may have more sales overall, but this may be a function of its ACV Exposure...Your item may actually sell faster than the competition in a head-to-head comparison of the size of stores selling the products.
Volume
2000
3000
4000
5
10
20
Sales / $MM
400
300
200
My Brand
Competitor A
Competitor B
ACV (MM$)
Sales per MM $ ACV/SS Example
Fact Dimension
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Sales
%ACV Selling
Sales Per Point of Distribution
Allow for a fair comparison of the sales performance of products with different levels of distribution.
Eliminates distribution as a factor to equalize sales levels
Can not use to compare across markets
Sales per Point of Distribution
$ Sales per Point
Unit Sales per Point
Eq Sales per Point
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Breaking Down Promoted Volume By Merchandising Condition Allows You To Explain Sales Peaks
70%No Promo Volume
30%PromoVolume
Feature Volume
Display Volume
Feature & Display Volume
Temporary Price Reduction
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Feature Collection
• Features are defined as retailer printed advertisements or other special printed promotions.
• Sources Include: Newspapers Flyers In-store circulars Mailers Supplements
• Because FSIs are manufacturer features, they are not included in feature measures
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Where does Display Information Come From?
• Each week the Field Auditors gather display information on:– Location– Selling Price– Merchandising Information
• ACNielsen Display Conditions:– Retailer must participate– It must be temporary– It must be situated in a secondary selling location– It must contain actual product available to consumers for self-service
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Some Facts on Pricing
• Retail price facts are gathered from:– Retailer’s Price Files – Retail Displays– Feature Ads
• Price data is NOT collected on the same tape as store volumetric data.
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Price Facts
Average PriceWeighted average price for all scanned sales of product
Non-Promoted PriceEstimated Product Price in the Absence of Promotion
Promoted PricesPrices recorded by stores with:
FeatureDisplayFeature & DisplayTemporary Price Reduction.
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NOW...
Let’s Discuss Some OtherImportant Promotional Facts,Events & Evaluations
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Different Ways To Look At Volume
• Promoted vs. Non-Promoted • Baseline vs. Incremental
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TOTAL VOLUME
BaselineVolume
IncrementalVolume
=
+
Retail Sales Are Also Divided Into:
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Baseline Volume
• The Baseline Volume Is The Normal Expected Everyday Sales In A Specific Store In The Absence Of Any Promotion.
• It Is Used As An Indicator Of The Fundamental Vitality Of A Brand/Item.
• The Difference Between Actual Volume Versus Baseline Volume Can Be Attributed To Promotional Activity.
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We First Measure The Actual Volume For A UPC In A Store Over Time
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Volume (000)Volume (000)
Week:Week:FeatureFeature
DisplayDisplay
TPRTPR
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX XX
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The Creation Of A Baseline Allows Us To Measure Incremental Volume
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Volume (000)Volume (000)
Week:Week:FeatureFeature
DisplayDisplay
TPRTPR
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
BaselineBaseline
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The Creation Of A Baseline Allows Us To Measure Incremental Volume
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Volume (000)Volume (000)
Week:Week:FeatureFeature
DisplayDisplay
TPRTPR
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
BaselineBaseline
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CategoryTrends Long Term
SeasonalityMarket Level
Effects
BrandTrends
Baseline Volume Includes Marketplace Conditions That Affect Sales of a Product
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
Baseline
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Incremental Volume
• “Incremental” Means Volume Sold Above And Beyond What Normally Would Have Been Expected (Above Baseline).
• Generally, Incremental Volume Is Generated By Trade Support.
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TOTAL VOLUME
PromotedVolume
Non Promoted Volume
=
+
Retail Sales Are Divided Into Two Basic Components:
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Promoted vs. Non Promoted Volume
These measures are projected from actual store data, unlike baseline volume, promoted/non promoted volume are not calculations
• Non Promoted–Volume in those stores/weeks where NO promotion
(feature, display, TPR) is present• Promoted
–Volume in those stores/weeks where a promotion (feature, display, TPR) is present
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Keep in Mind...
Non-Promoted + Promoted = Total VolumeBaseline + Incremental = Total Volume
BUTPromoted Incremental
Non-Promoted Baseline
Promoted and Non-Promoted Volume are actual, measured results
Baseline and Incremental Volume are expected, modeled results
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Subsidized Volume
Total Brand ASan Francisco - 52 Week Period
7.4% of the pound volume sold on promotion, but
would have sold even without the
promotion...
95.8%
4.2%
88.3%
11.7%
88.3%
7.4%4.2%
Base vs Inc Promo vs Non Subsidy
Incremental
Promoted
Subsidy
Non-Promoted
Baseline
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Promotion Effectiveness Index (PEI)
• PEI measures total volume relative to what would have normally been sold in the absence of any store level promotional activity (Baseline)
(Total Volume / Baseline Volume) x 100 = PEI
Examples: A PEI of 100 means that Total Volume was
equal to Baseline Volume A PEI of 350 means that Total Volume was
3.5 times greater than Baseline Volume
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Definition of Lift
• Lift is the interaction between Baseline and Incremental volume expressed as a percent.
• Calculation: Incremental Volume
Baseline Volume
• Provides a relative gauge of promotion effectiveness when comparing events.
• Lift is a relative measure. You should always look at your actual volume and compare it against other Lifts for your brand or competitors brands where conditions are comparable.
Percent Lift = X 100