© 2005 acnielsen 1 market trends and opportunities for growth chilealimentos: processed fruit...

© 2005 ACNielsen 1

Market trends and opportunities for growth

Chilealimentos: Processed Fruit

Jonathan Banks

Business Insight Director

ACNielsen

28 September 2005

© 2005 ACNielsen 2


>UK shoppers and consumers

>Where they shop

>Attitudes to health and diet>Implications for fruit

© 2005 ACNielsen 3

Demographics: the ageing population

230

420

830

7 9 13

1975 2000 2025

global

UK

Population of over 65s (millions)

Source: UN estimates

>Average UK life expectancy is 78>Andorra 83, Chile 77, Argentina 76, Brazil 72, Botswana 31

© 2005 ACNielsen 4

17 17

5 3

18

441

6

5

13

14

44

16

2

1716

1815

1992 2003/04

Leisure Goods & Services

Motoring & Travel

Personal goods and services

Household Goods & Services

Clothing and footwear

Tobacco

Alcoholic drink

Food

Fuel and power

Housing

Source: ONS Annual Abstract of Statistics 2005Crown Copyright

Food: highest share of expenditure till 1998%

of household expenditure

© 2005 ACNielsen 5

What is your biggest concern over the next 6 months?

22

19

1413

119

4 25

19 19

7

12

21

67

2

7

13

41

1110

14

1

8

0 20

5

10

15

20

25

UK Europe LatAm

Source: ACNielsen Consumer Confidence survey May 2005

• After London bombings Terrorism will stay front of mind• Health and Job Security top the list

© 2005 ACNielsen 6

COUNTRYGDP $

(TRILLION)GDP %

GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT

%PUBLIC DEBT

% of GDP

CHILE 0.2 6 9 13ARGENTINA 0.5 8 15 118BRAZIL 1.5 5 12 52UK 1.6 2 5 51FRANCE 1.6 1 10 69CHINA 6.4 9 10 30USA 11.8 4 6 65

The UK economy: In good shape – for now

Personal debt > £1 trillion £7,500 per household excluding mortgage

Pension under-provision in public and private schemes Low savings ratio It will all end in tears!

Source: CIA

© 2005 ACNielsen 7



>Where they shop


© 2005 ACNielsen 8

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Tesco

ASDA

Source: ACNielsen Homescan Total Till 12 week ending periods to 3 September 2005

Sainsburys

Morrisons/SafewayMorrisons/Safeway

Top 4 = 79% of total grocery

© 2005 ACNielsen 9Source: ACNielsen Scantrack TBR Year to 3 September 2005

1330 out of town stores = ½ the market

M egastores£29bn>40kfs

Superstores£24bn>25kfs

Out of Tow n£53bn

Large Stores£17bn>10kfs

Sm all Stores£11bn>3kfs

High Street£28bn

Convenience£24bn

Total FM CG Retailing£105bn

© 2005 ACNielsen 10

Megastore growth is not just from ‘new non-food’

M egastores£29bn+8%

>40kfs

Superstores£24bn+2%

>25kfs

Out of Tow n£53bn+5%

Large Stores£17bn

=>10kfs

Sm all S tores£11bn

-3%>3kfs

High Street£28bn

-1%

Convenience£24bn

=

Total FM CG Retailing£105bn

+2%


Convenience stores drive consolidation in the UK > 2000:

> T&S Stores / Day & Nite > Anglo / Repsol > Nomura / First Quench > CRS / CWS > Iceland / Booker

> 2001:> Balfour / Clements > Anglo / Save > Compass / Whistlestop > United Co-op / Willis > Compass / Stopgap

> 2002:> Co-op / Adrian Williams > Co-op / GT Smith > Musgrave / Budgens > Co-op / Alldays > Tesco / T&S Stores

> 2003: > Co-op / Balfour > Rippleglen / Supercigs

> 2004:> Sainsbury's / Bells Stores, Jacksons & Beaumont> Tesco / Adminstore (Cullens & Europa)> Somerfield / Aberness; Osprey> Co-op / Conveco> United Co-Op / Neighbours> Scotmid / SCS & MNN> Musgrave Group / Londis> TM Retail / Dillons> Morrisons / Safeway

> 2005 & What Next?

> Iceland / Bauger

> Somerfield /Safeway (115)

> Waitrose / Safeway (20)

> Tesco & Asda buy 7 Big W out of town

> Tesco / Morrisons: 30 pfs

> Somerfield: Bauger/ASDA/United Co-op?

> Morrisons: –more Safeway divestments?

> FWW/Boots/JS?


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000

Number of inhabitants per HD store

HD

mar

ket

sh

are

GB population/store HD share1998 115,000 2.5%2003 83,000 3.6%

Germ

any

Austria

France

Belgium

Switzerland

Italy

Greece

UK

PortugalSpain

Denmark

Netherlands

Hard Discounter evolution: 1998 to 2003

Source: ACNielsen


4.90.9

6.1

66.2

14.5

6.3

1.2

6.6

68.1

15.2

6.9

1.5

7.3

68.5

16.4

66.0 66.2 66.8

Penetration % Share of £ Exp Freq ofPurchase

% RepeatBuyers

Loyalty % Avg Spend PerVisit

2002 2003 2004

Consumer acceptance continues to grow steadily across all measures

Source: ACNielsen Homescan 52 w/e 25th Dec 04, 27th Dec 03, 28th Dec 02

Development of Grocery Internet Shopping


Importance of impulse purchases:We have a higher propensity than other European shoppers to make impulse purchases. Promotions capitalise on this.

5 9 10 14 1426

42

55 5556 59

59

35

3022

2220

11197

148 6 4

UK Netherlands France Germany Spain Italy

I never plan

I plan andalways buymore

I plan butsometimes buymore

I plan & neverbuy more

Source : ACNielsen - Shopper Trends (Europe). 2004 - % agree


Summary of UK shoppers and shopping

> Ageing population

> Food now only 4th largest spend item

> Concern about health and job security

> Economy in good shape – for now

> Top 4 = 79%

> 1330 out of town stores = ½ the market




>Where they shop



Food and beverage scares> Sept 04 – farmed Salmon causes cancer > Feb 04 – Red Bull banned in France> Jan 04 – Bird flu will kill you> Oct 03 – coffee link to miscarriages> Aug 03 – Atkins diet can be deadly> May 03 – Beef waste in chicken> May 02 – Swordfish mercury poisoning> Mar 02 – Prawns give you cancer> Jun 01 – Soy sauce carcinogenic> Dec 99 – Sunny Delight turns child orange> Jun 99 – Coke banned in Belgium> Nov 96 – E.coli epidemic> Feb 90 – Perrier with benzene> Mar 89 – Listeria> Dec 85 – Salmonella> 86 to 96 – BSE> 1996 – Aspartame link to brain cancer> 1977 – Saccharin causes cancer in lab rats

Jul 04: 3 wholemeal bread slices = 1 Mars bar

May 04: Co-op bans musks and phthalates

>Now: Sudan 1 and Para Red

>Oct 04 – Nitrofuran in Organic poultry

Mar 04: Coke’s water bomb


Para 7: All but two of the residues found…were below the government's official maximum residue level, and…they present no risk to human health. The food standards agency agrees that residues below the maximum residue level are safe.


Attitudes towards health:

People want to eat more healthily

Source: ACNielsen Homescan Survey February 2000, February 2004 and February 2005

69.7 72.1 74.1

2000 2004 2005

“It’s important for me to eat healthily”

61.2 64.0 59.0

2000 2004 2005

“I often don’t eat as healthily as I think I should”

59.7 59.6

2000 2004

“I am concerned about the safety of food today”


Move away from highly processed products towards “naturally healthy”

Source: ACNielsen Homescan Survey, February 2004 and February 2005

51%54%

23%

53%59%

24%

I avoid products thatcontain a high proportionof artificial ingredients or

preservatives

I prefer foods that arenatural

It's worth paying extra fororganic food

2004 2005


Life vs Death marketing:Younger people are concerned with image, vitality and exercise potential. Older people worry about living healthily and avoiding disease.

“Which of the following do you think is the main benefit of a healthy diet?”

SOURCE : ACNielsen Homescan Survey November 2003

Indexed on All Households 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-64 yrs 65+ yrs

Vitality – feeling energised and good about yourself 146 126 90 50

Not being overweight/obese 103 100 97 89

Healthy heart and circulation 75 99 110 113

Longevity, maintaining good health in old age 85 79 111 137

Avoiding cancer 49 98 96 160

Healthy bones and joints 65 83 110 145Being better at sport and exercise 167 167 50 33

Avoiding colds and flu 93 80 80 153

Avoiding diabetes 64 57 114 164

None of these 91 71 94 89


0

2

4

6

Source: ACNielsen LabelTrends, Total U.S. Food-Drug-Mass Excluding Wal-Mart: 12 wks to 18/6/05

US trends in Healthy Food LabellingU

S $

bn

12

wks

to

19

Ma

r 0 5

-6%

-4%-7%

-8% +1% -5% +1%

+7%-17% -3% -8%

>This year’s npd gains less consumer traction>Some health claims removed>Greater emphasis on healthier choices (inc Organic)>and healthy, balanced meals and diet


Wellness food + beverage propositions grow over time

Proportion of Concepts with Wellness Benefits in BASES Consumer Research

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1979

-198

119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

04

2005

(YTD)

Calories

Added Vitamins/ Neutraceuticals

Sodium

Carbs

Vits

Fat

CaloriesCholesterol

Fat

2007:Fibre

Source: ACNielsen BASES




>Where they shop

>Attitudes to health and diet> Implications for fruit


The consumer’s dilemma

79

71

35

% a

gre

e

“I’m trying to eat healthierfoods than I used to”

“It’s nice to have fatteningtreats once in a while”

“I often feel guilty abouteating the foods I like”

Source: ACNielsen Homescan GB 2004


Globally, Fruit and Veg +4% from ’03 to ’04

+4%

+5%

+4%

+4%

+6%

+4%

€ (mill)

+4%

2003 2004

+3%

+2%

+3%

+4%

+3%

Global Growth by Product AreaSOURCE : ACNielsen Global Services: “What’s Hot around the Globe 2004”

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Baby Food

Alcoholic Beverages

Non-Alcoholic Beverages

Confectionery & Snacks

Dairy

Meat, Fish & Eggs

Fruit & Vegetables

Ready-to-Eat Meals

Non-Sweet Carbs

Desserts, Cakes & Pastries

Cooking Basics

Sauces


US fruit sales

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

US

$m

illio

ns

. 2003 2004 2005

>Fresh 30% bigger than the rest combined>And showing growth whilst canned stagnates>Refrigerated and frozen grow

Source: ACNielsen years ending August


Germany fruit sales

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Canned Dried Frozen

€ m

illio

ns

.

2003 2004 2005

>Canned fruit volume is slightly up>Price compression and mix lowering total spend>Fresh fruit = €4billion and growing

Source: ACNielsen years ending August

© 2005 ACNielsen 31Sources: Adjusted National Food Survey 1975-2000; Expenditure & Food Survey 2001-3

UK fruit and veg consumption>Awareness of the ‘5 a day’ campaign is highBut there is a 500g shortfall v 2800g target, with vegetable consumption level

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Total vegetables(exc. potatoes)

Total fruit

g pe

r pe

rson

per

wee

k


UK vegetable consumption>No growth despite healthy eating campaigns

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Fresh green

Other fresh

All processed

Potatoes have also declined: from 1318 to 600

g pe

r pe

rson

per

wee

k


UK fruit consumption

>Growth of processed mainly driven by pure fruit juices

>Slow growth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Fresh fruit

Processed fruitg pe

r pe

rson

per

wee

k


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Tinned peaches,pears & pineapples

All other tinned orbottled fruit

Dried fruit

Frozen fruit

Jams, fruit curds +marmalade

Nuts, Edible SeedsAnd Peanut Butter

Sources: Adjusted National Food Survey 1975-2000; Expenditure & Food Survey 2001-3

g pe

r pe

rson

per

wee

k

UK fruit consumption>Tinned: sharp declines>Dried: slower decline>Frozen: not started


Fruit juice/juice drinks…

949 968 961

386 460 526

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2 years ago Year ago Latest year

Chilled

Ambient

Mill

ions

litr

es

793 834 840

472537 593

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600


£ m

illio

ns

>Chilled double digit growth; Ambient static

Source: ACNielsen Great Britain to 14 May 2005

£/litre Ambient Chilled premium2 years ago 0.84 1.22 46%Year ago 0.86 1.17 35%Latest year 0.87 1.13 29%


Chilled fruit juice…

157206

244

107

125

147

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450


NFCFC

Mill

ions

litr

es

133 166 187

184

210236

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450


£ m

illio

ns

>Growth in both key segments

Source: ACNielsen Great Britain to 14 May 2005; smaller ‘drinks’ segment not shown

£/litre FC NFC Premium2 years ago 0.85 1.72 103%Year ago 0.81 1.68 108%Latest year 0.77 1.61 109%


Fruit Juice/Juice Drink Flavour preferences

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Mill

ions

litr

es

+12%

+30% +46% -7% +19% +18%+19%

Source: ACNielsen Great Britain to 14 May 2005


European Examples: Still Fruit Drinks with Added Value

Source: WILD Group


US: Functional soft drinks

• a mass of health claims

•diverse health claims


Packaging:

>Microwaveable cans>Peel-seam cans>New print systems>Self-chilling cans>Self-heating cans>Pouches


New product launches reflect current consumer drivers – many combining all three!

Source: Leatherhead Food International 2004

Convenience and Snacking

Health and Well-being

Pleasure and Indulgence

691

1,201

340235

1,165

304

275


Beverages – some key categories>Milk c. 50p/litre

Source: ACNielsen September 2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

FC FlavouredMilk

Dairysubstitutes

NFC Yogurtdrinks

Probiotic Smoothies

Cate

go

ry v

alu

e £

m

.

-2%

+11%

+16%

+23% -19%£0.76

£1.29£1.36

£2.88

£3.48

£1.96

£1.57

+63%

+55%


Lycopenes and Anthocyanins…

Inhibit ‘bad’ cholesterol (LDLc)

Encourage ‘good’ cholesterol (HDLc)

Help repair damaged blood vessels

Vitamin C

Helps regulate blood clotting

Helps regulate blood pressure

Source: David Berryman


Malfunction Prevention source Active ingredient

Citrus fruits Flavonoids + Vitamin C

Cancer Berry fruits Anthocyanins

Raspberry Ellagic Acid

Apple Flavonols

Citrus Vitamin C

Tomato Lycopene

Heart & Water Melon Lycopene

circulation Berry fruits Anthocyanins

Apple Flavonols

Antioxidants versus Malfunction

Source: David Berryman


> If it’s cheap it must be rubbish

> Salad options are less fattening

> Organic is better for me

> GM is bad for me

> Banning ‘junk food’ ads to kids will reduce obesity

> I’m too busy to eat/exercise properly

> Vegetarian options are healthier

> I need to eat more fruit and veg, but:

> an apple contains 4 tsp of sugar

> a third of all produce contains pesticide residue

> fruit looks unappetising

Consumer confusion


Summary of the UK

> Food scares are the norm

> Want to eat more healthily

> Low-carb fad has faded

> Fruit consumption growing – but behind target

> Processed fruit sub-categories declining – except juice

> NPD: convenience, health, indulgence

> We’re confused consumers!


Jason Clay - WWF:

>Live like you’ll die tomorrow

>Farm like you’ll live forever


Thank you!

>Questions?

>[email protected]

>Good luck!

© 2005 acnielsen 1 market trends and opportunities for growth chilealimentos: processed fruit...

Documents

acnielsen slide

market slide

fruit slide

acnielsen homescan total

acnielsen shopper t

list slide

cia slide

acnielsen scantrack