a multi-model approach to better understanding the ......a multi-model approach to better...
TRANSCRIPT
-
A multi-model approach to better understanding the robustness of
management of Pacific hake to environmental variability
Kristin Marshall1, Nis Jacobsen1,2, Isaac Kaplan1, Kirstin Holsman3, and Grant Adams4,
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
1Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2National Research Council 3Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 4University of Washington
-
What is climate-robust fisheries management?
Resilient OR Responsive
-
Benson et al. 2018 Fish and Fisheries
Responsivecatch limits
Resilient harvest control rules
-
How do we know if we’ve achieved climate-robust management?
• Specify goals, objectives AND measure performance
• Test robustness to a wide range of uncertainties
-
MSE as a collaborative, iterative process
SurveysAssessmentDecision Rule
-
Pacific Hake Fishery and Management• International Pacific Whiting Treaty
(2003)• 74/26 percent of annual quota allocated
to US/CA• Harvest Control Rule F-SPR 40:10
Hake
West Coast US Groundfish Landings
Hake biomass relative to unfishedFis
hing m
ortal
ity ra
te
10% 40% 100%
-
More fish, younger fish, in US than Canada
Agostini et al. 2006Malick et al. in review
-
Co-created (managers, industry, and scientists) goals for this iteration of the Hake MSE:
• Evaluate the performance of current hake management procedures under alternative hypotheses about current and future environmental conditions
• Better understand the effects of hake distribution and movement on both countries’ ability to catch fish
• Better understand how fishing in each country affects the availability of fish to the other country in future years
-
Tools for evaluating climate-robust management for hake
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
• List item 1• List item 2
• List item 3• List item 4
Operating Model Estimation Model
Management model
Spatially explicit
Environ. drivers
Trophic dynamics
Prev. Hake MSE model
X X
Current Hake MSE model
X X X X
Atlantis ecosystem model
X X X In progress X
CEATTLE-Hake
X X X X
-
Generalized closed-loop simulation model for MSE
Operating modelHypotheses about how the biological system and fishery operates
Observation modelData generation from fishery and survey
Estimation modelSimulates stock assessment
Management modelTranslates assessment model output to catch advice for the next year
10
-
Climate change inspired movement scenarios
• Linearly increase the maximum movement rate over time
• Linearly decrease the proportion of fish returning to US to spawn
• Compare 3 scenarios – no change to movement, moderate increase in movement, and dramatic increase in movement
-
Spawning biomass distribution in the future
Canada
USA
Jacobsen et al. in prep
Status QuoModerate Increase
Dramatic Increase
-
Median Catch (thousand mt)
Average annual variability in Catch
Coastwide performance metrics
1) No climate change effect
2) Moderate increase in movement
3) Dramatic increase in movement
Proportion of years with fishery closure
Jacobsen et al. in prepIncreasing movement
-
Conclusions thus far• Current management procedure shows sensitivity to dramatic changes in movement rate
(relatively robust to small changes)
• If model-assumed movement rates occurred, status quo management would lead to lower total catch, higher variation in catch, and lower spawning biomass
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14
-
Tools for evaluating climate-robust management for hake
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
• List item 1• List item 2
• List item 3• List item 4
Operating Model Estimation Model
Management model
Spatially explicit
Environ. drivers
Trophic dynamics
Prev. Hake MSE model
X X
Current Hake MSE model
X X X X
Atlantis ecosystem model
X X X In progress X
CEATTLE-Hake
X X X X
-
Ecosystem-Based Harvest Control Rules for Norwegian and US Ecosystems
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16
Kaplan et al. in reviewHake biomass relative to unfished
Hake
Fish
ing m
ortal
ity ra
te10% 40% 100%
Constant harvest at FMSY
Threshold harvest rule on hake
Hake threshold rule
-
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17
Kaplan et al. in review
-
Tools for evaluating climate-robust management for hake
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
• List item 1• List item 2
• List item 3• List item 4
Operating Model Estimation Model
Management model
Spatially explicit
Environ. drivers
Trophic dynamics
Previous MSE model
X X
Current Hake MSE model
X X X X
Atlantis ecosystem model
X X X In progress X
CEATTLE-Hake
X X X X
-
CEATTLE Multi-species model
Walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus)
Arrowtooth flounder(Atheresthes stomias)
Pacific cod(Gadus macrocephalus)
Eastern Bering Sea, Alaska, USA
W@Age~f(Temperature)Pred/prey~f(Temperature)
Climate-Enhanced, Age-based model with Temperature-specific Trophic Linkages and Energetics
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19
Holsman et al.
-
CEATTLE-EBS: Options
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20
• Empirical diets• Bioenergetics
Mortality
• Empirical• VonB with Temp
Weight @ Age
• Climate-S/R• S/R• mean R
Rec
• Climate ABC• MMSY• MEY• SPR• Aggregate MSY
HCRs
Holsman et al.
https://github.com/grantdadams/Rceattle
https://github.com/grantdadams/Rceattle
-
Potential for CEATTLE-Hake as operating model
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21
• Empirical diets
• Bioenergetics
Mortality
VonB with Temp
Weight @ Age
• Climate-S/R• S/R
Rec
-
Tools for evaluating climate-robust management for hake
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
• List item 1• List item 2
• List item 3• List item 4
Operating Model Estimation Model
Management model
Spatially explicit
Environ. drivers
Trophic dynamics
Previous MSE model
X X
Current Hake MSE model
X X X X
Atlantis ecosystem model
X X X In progress X
CEATTLE-Hake
X X X X
-
Is current management strategy for Pacific hake climate-ready?
• Testing robustness of current management to dramatic changes in environment is a first step
• Single-species spatial model suggests some resilience
• Testing robustness to a wider range of uncertainties is underway
-
Thank you!
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Pag
A multi-model approach to better understanding the robustness of management of Pacific hake to environmental variabilityWhat is climate-robust fisheries management?Slide Number 3How do we know if we’ve achieved climate-robust management?MSE as a collaborative, iterative processPacific Hake Fishery and ManagementMore fish, younger fish, in US than CanadaCo-created (managers, industry, and scientists) goals for this iteration of the Hake MSE:Tools for evaluating climate-robust management for hakeGeneralized closed-loop simulation model for MSEClimate change inspired movement scenariosSpawning biomass distribution in the futureCoastwide performance metricsConclusions thus farTools for evaluating climate-robust management for hakeEcosystem-Based Harvest Control Rules for Norwegian and US EcosystemsSlide Number 17Tools for evaluating climate-robust management for hakeCEATTLE Multi-species modelCEATTLE-EBS: OptionsPotential for CEATTLE-Hake as operating modelTools for evaluating climate-robust management for hakeIs current management strategy for Pacific hake climate-ready?Thank you!