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TRANSCRIPT
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Improving the Efficiency of the Ocean’s Biological
Carbon Pump
David M. KarlUniversity of Hawaii
and friends
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6
GtCO2/yr
Current p
ath = “r
amp”
Flat path
0
30
60
1950 2000 2050 2100
Stabilization Wedges
16 GtC/y
Eight “wedges”
Interim Goal
R. Socolow, 28 Nov 2007
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Exploring Ocean Iron Fertilization: the scientific, economic, legal and political basis
Symposium held at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution26-27 September 2007
K. Buesseler, S. Doney, H. Kite-Powell, co-organizershttp://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=14618
Oceanus article by Hugh Powellhttp://www.whoi.edu/oceanus
“Moving ahead with uncertainty”
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS• Melinda Marquis / Annie Thomson and all organizing
and planning committee persons• My “advisors” for this talk:
Phil Boyd, Ken Buesseler, John Cullen, Scott Doney, Ken Johnson, Ricardo Letelier, Anthony Michaels
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OUTLINE• Station ALOHA (Mauna Loa of the Sea)• Ocean’s Biological Carbon Pump• Ocean Fertilization: Design, Implementation
and Outcomes (expected and unexpected)• The Future
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pH (total scale, in situ)
8.06
8.08
8.10
8.12
8.14
pH based on DIC & TAlkpH based on direct measurement
Sea surface pCO2 and pH at Station ALOHA
pCO
2 (µa
tm)
300
320
340
360
380 Sea pCO2 based on DIC & TAlkWet air pCO2 based on MLO data
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05
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Keeling et al. 2004, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol. 18
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OCEAN’S BIO-C PUMP
• How is it structured?• How does it function?• What determines its efficiency?• How is it linked to ocean C sequestration?
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Model calculations show that Biological Pump is necessary to explain field data
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The The ““Biological PumpBiological Pump”” Combined biological processes which transfer organic matter and associated elements to depth- pathway for rapid C sequestration
Quickly remove C from surface ocean & atm. - turn off bio pump and 200 ppmvincrease atm. CO2
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Adapted from Legendre and Le Fèvre (1989)
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How do we get from the marine food web to a global assessment of CO2 flux to a mitigation policy???
With great difficulty!
“BIOLOGICAL PUMP”
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OCEAN NUTRITION OPTIONS FOR (POSSIBLE) C SEQUESTRATION
• Fe fertilization of HNLC• Fe or Fe/P fertilization of LNLC• P fertilization in P-stressed regions• Artificial upwelling in open ocean
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CASE STUDY 1:Fe fertilization
• Site is critical (HNLC)• Export is key
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Results from small scale bottle experiments in HNLC region
K. Johnson
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• Compared results of bottle experiments and mesocosmswith whole lake observations
• Small scale studies give highly reproducible but spurious results (no realism!)
• All problems pale to scale (time and space)
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Boyd et al. (2007)+Fe (HNLC) High Fe +Fe (LNLC)
NO3mmol m-3
11 mesoscale Fe experiments in > 10 years
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TWO KEY REVIEWS
de Baar et al.(2005)
JGR 110
Boyd et al.(2007)
Science 315
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WHOI Ocean Fertilization 2007: John Cullen
CO2 + Nutrients → Organic MatterCO2 + Nutrients → Organic Mattersinkingparticles
upw
ellin
gan
d m
ixin
g
Bottom
Primary production
DecompositionCO2 + Nutrients ← Organic MatterCO2 + Nutrients ← Organic Matter
CO2
Organic C
Objective:Promote nutrient utilization in the surface layer and remove carbon
J. Cullen
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WHOI Ocean Fertilization 2007: John Cullen
Increased deep ocean concentrations of CO2, N and P
Decreased deep ocean concentrations of O2
Decreased surface layer concentrations and ratios of N, P and Si
IMAGE: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Intended consequences of large-scale fertilization
J. Cullen
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WHOI Ocean Fertilization 2007: John Cullen
IronIron
Organic NOrganic N
PhytoplanktonPhytoplanktonBloomBloom
NHNH44
N N remineralizationremineralization
COCO22
NONO33--
NN22
NN2200 Nitrous oxideNitrous oxide• Greenhouse gas
• 300x CO2
Lower Lower Oxygen WatersOxygen Waters
After a slide from S.W. Chisholm
Microbial Nitrification
Mic
robi
al
Deni
trific
atio
n
NN2200
Secondary effects must be quantified
J. Cullen
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A.C. REDFIELD (1958) “The inadequacy of
experiments in marine biology”
• Ecosystem manipulation/perturbation experiments are essential
• Complex systems must be thoroughly described and well understood beforerelevant experiments can be conducted
C:N:P
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Iron is added with SF6 as inert tracer for dilution
P. Boyd
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50 100 150 200 250 300
-50
SF6 coloured/ sigma-t lines
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.2
Log SF6
Depth(m)
Behrenfeld et al.(1996)
Time (hr)
P. Boyd
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Common findings in mesoscale iron experiments
Virtually all experiments resulted in blooms
A similarexperimental design was usedin all studies
-4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
C67
C68
C69
P. Boyd
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A wide range in bloom signatures
De Baar et al. (2005) / P. Boyd
0
24
68
10
1214
1618
20
Ironex
-1Iro
nex-2
Soiree
Eisenex
Seeds
SofexN
orthSofe
xSouth
Series
Eifex
Experiment
Max
imum
Chl
a [m
g.m
-3]
premature stop
to experiment
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“Iron fertilization is not a silver bullet …let’s look at it on our portfolio for mitigation … uncertainty shouldn’t preclude research”
Margaret Leinen, Climos
“There is a limited amount of money and time …the worst possible thing would be to invest in something that doesn’t work and has big impacts that we don’t anticipate”
Lisa Speer, Natural Resources Defense CouncilH. Powell, Oceanus article, Nov 2007
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SUMMARY:HNLC Fe Fertilization
• Add Fe → Bloom• Unresolved issues
–C:Fe stoichiometry–C export ??–Unexpected ecosystem consequences (CH4,
N2O production)–Patch-to-system scaling considerations
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CASE STUDY 2:Artificial Upwelling
• Site is critical (C-N-P)• Community succession is key• C-N-P Stoichiometry is key
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J. E. Lovelock and C. G. Rapley (2007)
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Immediate retort from the science community…essentially “What are you smoking in those pipes?”
The issue has to do with the CNP ratio of upwelledwater relative to particle export
Nothing’s as fundamental as elemental!!
J. Shepherd et al. 2007
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Bloom creation –wave driven ocean upwelling pumps
Buoy
200 m
40-60 m
Valve unit
Flexible tube
Atmocean Inc. designØ 0.75 m
• Transfer nutrients by “sea elevator”
• Remove C by bio-pump
• Net result depends on ocean chemistry, microbial community structure and luck
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STA. ALOHA (1988-2007)
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Water from~300 m
DIC:P = 150N:P < 16
“Redfield”bloom andexport with
residual DIC and P
Selects forphoto-trophic
N2 fixing microbes
Non-Redfield “echo”
bloom and export
STEP 1 STEP 2
106C:16N:1P325C:50N:1P
STEP 3
N2/CO2
STA. ALOHA UPWELLING HYPOTHESIS
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SUMMARY:ARTIFICIAL UPWELLING
• Deep-water nutrient loading of LNLC regions → Bloom
• Plankton community succession leads to N2 fixation if upwelled N:P is lower than Redfield Ratio
• C sequestration trajectory and efficiency may be more predictable than in Fe fertilization experiments
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FUTURE RESEARCH PROSPECTUS
“We are just at the threshold of our knowledge of the oceans…this knowledge is more than a curiosity,
our very survival may hinge on it.”
John F. Kennedy
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Science – Society Connections
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Is ocean fertilization a viable “stabilization wedge” option?
“Moving ahead with uncertainty”
• Scientific jury is still out• Ecology always trumps economics and policy• Environmental impacts not well constrained• Import of export
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BEST PRACTICES & CODE OF CONDUCT
• Permits (notwithstanding ambiguity of need)• Environmental assessments• Avoid marine protected areas• Transparency, peer review / published,
collaboration
http://www.climos.com
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• Established Feb 2007• Lorenz Magaard, Chair
Manoa Climate Change Commission
• Maurice Kaya / Laurence Lau, co-Chairs
• Lorenz Magaard and Makena Coffman, members
Task Force Global Climate Change
Solutions Act of 2007
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“It is the microbes that will
have the last word”
Louis Pasteur