PowerPoint Presentation

8th meeting of the TFEIPs projections expert panel, 15th May 2012 Bern, Switzerland.

Emissions projections reported under the LRTAP convention and EEA countries visibility in global emission scenario studies.

John van Aardenne (EEA). Acknowledgements: LRTAP: Elisabeth Kampel and Melanie Tista (UBA-Vienna), Martin Adams (EEA)ETC-ACM scenario study: A. Colette, S. Schucht, J.-C. Pr, B. Bessagnet, L. Roul: Institut National de lEnvironnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), France and R. Koelemeijer, H. Eerens, K. Van Velze: Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), the Netherlands and G. Mellios: EMISIA, GreeceOverviewEmission projections in the draft EU LRTAP emission inventory report 1990-2010Reporting requirements on projectionsProjections in the 2012 EU LRTAP emission inventory reportOverview on trends, gapsFuture role of projections expert panel

B. Brief presentation of the ETC-ACM technical report Cobenefits of climate and air pollution regulations that includes an evaluation of representation/visibility of EU-EEA countries in global emission scenarios. (as presented in 7th meeting of projections expert panel)

Acknowledgements: LRTAP: Elisabeth Kampel and Melanie Tista (UBA-Vienna), Martin Adams (EEA)ETC-ACM scenario study: A. Colette, S. Schucht, J.-C. Pr, B. Bessagnet, L. Roul: (INERIS), and R. Koelemeijer, H. Eerens, K. Van Velze (PBL), and G. Mellios: EMISIA

2Reporting requirements on projectionsFrom ECE/EB.AIR/97 27 January 2009 (reporting guidelines)

36. Parties to the Gothenburg Protocol shall report their latest available projections at leastevery five years, and provide any updated projections annually by 15 February, for the years2010, 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2050. Parties to the Convention that are not Parties to the Protocolare also strongly encouraged to provide this information. (Parties are not required to report projections for those years in which emissions data are reported as part of the inventory reporting specified in paragraph 29)

37. Projected emissions for sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3),particulate matter-10 (PM10), PM2.5 and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs)should be reported using table IV.2a of annex IV to these Guidelines. Parties should completethe tables at the requested level of aggregation. Where values for individual categories oraggregated NFR categories are not available, the notation keys defined in section II.C of annex Ito these Guidelines should be used.

38. Quantitative information on parameters underlying emission projections should bereported using the templates set out in table IV.2b of annex IV to these Guidelines. Theseparameters should be reported for the projection target year and the historic year chosen as thestarting year for the projections.

Projections in the 2012 EU LRTAP emission inventory reportInformation from:Draft European Union emission inventory report 19902010 under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) as submitted for EIONET review.

Under the reporting process to the LRTAP Convention, some Member States have submitted emission projections for the year 2015 and up to 2050 in some cases. Submitted data are available in Annex E to this report. This report does not provide further detailed analysis of projections reported by the countries in relation to the emission ceilings for 2010 in the Gothenburg Protocol to the LRTAP Convention

The next slides present an overview and short analysis of the available projections data.......

Please note:Numbers reflect data available until March 09, 2012Presentations aim is to inform, learn and discuss not to judge

NOx projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012)NOx (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010WM20102015202020302050Austria107 189 199 160 130 122 0Belgium181 221 0 202 173 0 0Bulgaria266 115 0 247 247 0 0Cyprus23 18 18 17 13 0 0Czech Republic286 251 0 0 0 0 0Denmark127 129 129 105 85 70 0Estonia 37 39 36 0 0 0Finland170 172 0 0 121 0 101France8601 0801 080 848 620 0 0Germany10811 3231 3261 1821 013 0 0Greece344 322 0 338 290 0 0Hungary198 162 0 172 173 192 0Ireland65 76 0 0 0 0 0Italy1000 963 0 0 0 0 0Latvia84 34 0 45 46 0 0Lithuania110 58 0 34 23 0 0Luxembourg11 21 0 0 0 0 0Malta 8 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands266 276 264 230 185 161 0Poland879 867 827 0 0 0 0Portugal260 180 0 0 0 0 0Romania437 272 236 198 170 371 0Slovakia130 89 89 83 71 79 84Slovenia45 45 49 46 35 25 0Spain847 974 0 930 848 0 0Sweden148 161 0 118 92 82 0United Kingdom11811 1061 106 935 731 0 0One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted dataOne or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted dataNMVOC projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012)NMVOC (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010WM20102015202020302050Austria159 133 159 164 172 189 0Belgium144 105 0 110 112 0 0Bulgaria185 91 0 175 175 0 0Cyprus14 11 11 10 8 0 0Czech Republic220 148 0 0 0 0 0Denmark85 86 86 76 70 64 0Estonia 38 41 42 0 0 0Finland130 117 0 0 82 0 74France1100 852 852 643 594 0 0Germany9951 0531 0521 0921 073 0 0Greece261 184 0 0 103 0 0Hungary137 109 0 133 137 157 0Ireland55 45 0 0 0 0 0Italy11591 080 0 0 0 0 0Latvia136 65 0 53 51 0 0Lithuania92 69 0 49 29 0 0Luxembourg9 9 0 0 0 0 0Malta 3 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands191 151 144 146 149 162 0Poland800 662 603 0 0 0 0Portugal202 174 0 0 0 0 0Romania523 444 414 372 339 362 0Slovakia140 62 62 75 76 77 78Slovenia40 35 29 28 28 27 0Spain669 695 0 676 663 0 0Sweden241 197 0 153 139 128 0United Kingdom1200 789 789 776 729 0 0One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted dataOne or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted dataSOx projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012)SOx (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010WM20102015202020302050Austria39 19 21 21 21 22 0Belgium106 67 0 72 73 0 0Bulgaria856 387 0 836 836 0 0Cyprus39 22 22 20 7 0 0Czech Republic283 173 0 0 0 0 0Denmark55 14 14 15 15 16 0Estonia 83 80 43 0 0 0Finland116 68 0 0 76 0 65France400 262 262 251 195 0 0Germany550 449 451 449 402 0 0Greece546 264 0 0 137 0 0Hungary550 32 0 61 59 59 0Ireland42 26 0 0 0 0 0Italy500 210 0 0 0 0 0Latvia107 3 0 6 6 0 0Lithuania145 38 0 37 20 0 0Luxembourg4 2 0 0 0 0 0Malta 8 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands50 34 42 45 46 45 0Poland1397 974 994 0 0 0 0Portugal170 68 0 0 0 0 0Romania918 372 415 161 149 830 0Slovakia110 69 69 61 29 30 31Slovenia27 10 13 11 11 9 0Spain774 483 0 439 436 0 0Sweden67 34 0 29 28 29 0United Kingdom625 406 406 371 292 0 0One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted dataOne or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted dataNH3 projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012)NH3 (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010WM20102015202020302050Austria66 62 61 62 62 62 0Belgium74 69 0 67 67 0 0Bulgaria108 51 0 108 108 0 0Cyprus9 5 5 5 5 0 0Czech Republic101 69 0 0 0 0 0Denmark69 75 75 63 58 55 0Estonia 10 9 7 0 0 0Finland31 37 0 0 36 37 38France780 645 645 542 463 0 0Germany550 548 548 547 550 0 0Greece73 64 0 0 63 0 0Hungary90 65 0 83 80 74 0Ireland116 106 0 0 0 0 0Italy419 379 0 0 0 0 0Latvia44 17 0 14 14 0 0Lithuania84 30 0 38 23 0 0Luxembourg7 4 0 0 0 0 0Malta 2 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands128 122 131 122 118 119 0Poland468 271 284 0 0 0 0Portugal108 48 0 0 0 0 0Romania210 161 184 179 173 218 0Slovakia39 24 24 25 24 23 23Slovenia20 17 18 18 18 19 0Spain353 371 0 331 321 0 0Sweden57 52 0 44 41 42 0United Kingdom297 284 284 272 285 0 0One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted dataOne or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted dataPM10 projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012)PM10 (Gg)Emissions 2010WM20102015202020302050Austria 35 0 0 0 0 0Belgium 24 0 0 0 0 0Bulgaria 41 0 0 0 0 0Cyprus 3 3 3 3 0 0Czech Republic 37 0 0 0 0 0Denmark 32 32 26 23 20 0Estonia 32 17 17 0 0 0Finland 55 0 0 32 0 30France 367 0 0 0 0 0Germany 193 193 182 171 0 0Greece 0 0 0 0 0 0Hungary 46 0 35 35 37 0Ireland 13 0 0 0 0 0Italy 202 0 0 0 0 0Latvia 33 0 0 0 0 0Lithuania 13 0 14 13 0 0LuxembourgNE 0 0 0 0 0Malta 1 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands 29 30 30 29 29 0Poland 279 0 0 0 0 0Portugal 70 0 0 0 0 0Romania 135 0 0 0 0 0Slovakia 30 30 33 34 38 38Slovenia 20 13 12 11 10 0Spain 112 0 115 118 0 0Sweden 44 0 38 35 35 0United Kingdom 114 114 106 104 0 0One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted dataOne or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted dataPM2.5 projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012)PM2.5 (Gg)Emissions 2010WM20102015202020302050Austria 0 0 0 0 0 0Belgium 0 0 0 0 0 0Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 0 0Cyprus 2 2 2 0 0 0Czech Republic 0 0 0 0 0 0Denmark 26 20 17 14 0 0Estonia 15 15 0 0 0 0Finland 0 0 23 0 21 0France 255 232 210 0 0 0Germany 111 100 90 0 0 0Greece 0 0 0 0 0 0Hungary 0 0 0 0 0 0Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0Italy 0 0 0 0 0 0Latvia 0 13 12 0 0 0Lithuania 0 10 10 0 0 0Luxembourg 0 0 0 0 0 0Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands 15 14 13 13 0 0Poland 0 0 0 0 0 0Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0Romania 0 0 0 0 0 0Slovakia 27 28 29 32 32 27Slovenia 10 9 8 6 0 10Spain 0 82 83 0 0 0Sweden 0 26 24 23 0 0United Kingdom 67 59 57 0 0 0One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted dataOne or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted dataSome reflections on these projections Many gaps......

Insufficient information to combine projections and perform analysis at the EU27 level

Sometimes 2010 inventory data 2010 data in Table 2A_WM (projections)

Ceilings not met in 2010 sometimes also not met in future years

Ceilings met in 2010 sometimes exceeded after 2010

etc....

How to reflect and (if needed) how to act under the TFEIPs projections expert panel to support countries and improve their projections.

Evaluation of low carbon scenarios and inclusion of air pollutant emissions

Comparison of GHG emissions

Comparison of GHG emissions

Comparison of GHG emissions

Comparison of air pollutant emissions