7 th joint tfeip & eionet meeting, thessaloniki, 2006 heavy metal modelling: use of different...
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7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
Heavy metal modelling:Use of different emission
inventories
Oleg TravnikovEMEP/MSC-E
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7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
Model results vs. observations
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Underestimation of observed concentrations by 65-75%
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Observed, g/L
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g/L
Lead
Annual mean concentration in precipitation based on official emissions data (2000)
Cadmium
Mod = 0.35 ObsCorr = 0.70
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Observed, g/L
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g/L
Mod = 0.26 ObsCorr = 0.76
CdPb
7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
Workshop on the review of EMEP MSC-E models on HMs
and POPs
Reasons of model/measurement discrepancies may particularly include:
Incompleteness and uncertainty of available emission inventories of heavy metals
Unaccounted secondary emission of heavy metals (wind re-suspension)
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(ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/4)
Workshop concluded:
Most transport models (including MSC-E Heavy Metal model) underestimate air and precipitation concentration when using official emission data
7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
Uncertainty of emission inventories
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Pb
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OfficialESPREME
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OfficialESPREME
Comparison of official emissions data, and ESPREME estimates (2000)
Lead Cadmium
7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
Uncertainty of emission inventories
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35% underestimation
75% underestimation
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0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
Observed, g/L
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el,
g/L
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0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
Observed, g/L
Mod
el,
g/L
Mod = 0.26 ObsCorr = 0.76
Mod = 0.64 ObsCorr = 0.56
Official data ESPREME estimates
Annual mean Cd concentration in precipitation based on official and
ESPREME estimates (2000)
Cd Cd
7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
Wind re-suspension of HM
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Dust suspension:
Saltation [Marticorena & Bergametti, 1995; Gomes et al., 2003]
Sandblasting [Alfaro & Gomes, 2001]
7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
Wind re-suspension of HM
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Default HM concentrations in soil(Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia)
MetalConc
(mg/kg) Reference
Pb 15 Reimann and Cariat, 1998
Cd 0.2 Nriagu, 1980
As 5 Beyer & Cromartie, 1987
Cr 50 Shacklette et al., 1970
Ni 15 Nriagu, 1980
Pb concentration in European soils
FOREGS (www.gtk.fi/publ/foregsatlas/)
7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
Wind re-suspension of HM
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Anthropogenic emissionsRe-suspension
Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension of Pb
7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
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Observed, g/L
Mod
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g/L
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Observed, g/L
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g/L
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Observed, g/L
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g/L
Model results vs. observations (Pb)
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Official
Annual mean Pb concentration in precipitation (2000)
Official+re-suspen. ESPREME+re-suspen.
Mod = 0.35 ObsCorr = 0.7
Mod = 0.62 ObsCorr = 0.66
Mod = 0.79 ObsCorr = 0.62
20% underestimation
40% underestimation
65% underestimation
7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
0.00
0.05
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0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
Observed, g/L
Mod
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g/L
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0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
Observed, g/L
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g/L
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Observed, g/L
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g/L
Model results vs. observations (Cd)
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Annual mean Cd concentration in precipitation (2000)
Mod = 0.26 ObsCorr = 0.76
Mod = 0.33 ObsCorr = 0.71
Mod = 0.71 ObsCorr = 0.53
30% underestimation
65% underestimation
75% underestimation
Official Official+re-suspen. ESPREME+re-suspen.
7th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006
Conclusions
Use of currently available emissions data leads to underestimation of ambient heavy metal concentrations by atmospheric transport models
Modelling results based on ESPREME estimates commonly demonstrate better agreement with measurements than those based on official emissions data
Wind re-suspension of some heavy metals can significantly contribute to their ambient concentration and depositions in Europe
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