6-dec us 10 yr t-note (%) tgb yield curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr … · 2017. 12. 7. · fx market...
TRANSCRIPT
KBank Daily Update 7 December 2017
Disclaimer: For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein
was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Source: Reuters (ex counter rates); For latest counter rates:www.kasikornbank.co/EN/RatesAndFees/ForeignExchange/Pages/ForeignExchange.aspx
Market highlight: The dollar will likely trade in a tight range ahead of the release of the non-farm payroll numbers this Friday. Economists expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 200,000 in November.
FX market mover: EUR/USD dropped by 0.25% to 1.1796. The euro dropped yesterday due to positive dollar sentiment this week. The US ADP employment supported dollar the dollar’s strength.
• USD/THB barely inched with a 0.01% rise to 32.62%. The baht moved within a narrow range.
Factors to watch today: Thai consumer confidence and Eurozone 3Q17 GDP (final estimate)
US Market
Dow Jones
S&P 500Dollar Index
US 10 yr T-note (%)
US 2yr T-note (%)
NYMEX crude ($/b)
TGB Yield Curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr
6-Dec 1.20 1.25 1.41 1.46 1.49 1.60 1.89 2.15 2.56 2.66 2.84 2.91
Change (bps) 0.07 -0.20 0.19 0.47 -0.06 -0.13 -2.51 -1.29 -0.24 -0.06 0.15 -1.90
7-Dec 6-Dec BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 1yr
1.50 1.50 6-Dec 1.51279 1.52959 1.54204 1.57125 1.70279 1.96335
Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m
6-Dec 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 6-Dec
THBFIX (pm) 1m 3m 6m 1yr LIBOR
6-Dec 0.47548 0.69720 1.05763 1.42610 6-Dec
6-Dec
1,694.39
1m
1.40688
Change
-3.22
-3,303.18-3,153.99
Change
1,474,622.38
46,459.72-3,329.18
6-Dec
274.60 0.10
201,095.77
Spot Gold ($ /oz)
Thai Stock Market
SET Index
Market Turnover (Bt mn)Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)
Thai Bond Market
Total Return Index
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn)
Interbank Rates
Overnight (%)
55.96
6-Dec
24,140.91
2,629.2793.61
2.33
Change
-39.73
-0.300.0025
-2.60
-2.00
-1.66
1.81
3m 6m
1.71445 1.52263
change
-2.291263.86
SWAP (THB/THB, Rates) 1yr 2yr 3yr
7-Dec Bid/Ask 1.25/1.28 1.47/1.5 1.65/1.68
KBank counter rate
(against THB)
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
KBank Technical Analysis
USD/THB (Onshore)
USD/JPY
EUR/USD
EUR/THB
JPY/THB
Export/Import
-6.3 / 2.8
0.8 / 10.44
0.15 / 6.43
1.0095 / 5.9156
32.78
38.84
4yr
1.81/1.84 1.945/1.975
5yr 7yr
2.11/2.16 2.305/2.355
10yr
Premium (1 month)Sight Bill
32.38
38.00 38.10
32.48
T/T
Buying Selling
T/T
43.08
0.2857 0.2866
43.23 44.12
0.2945
7-Dec
32.63
112.43
1.1792
38.49
0.2902
38.47
0.2869
6-Dec
32.60
112.28
1.1795
32.50
Support Resistance
32.80
112.90
1.1835
38.80
0.2930
Trend
Sideway
Sideway
Sideway
Sideway
Sideway0.2870
38.20
1.1752
112.00
Macro & Fixed Income Market
Daily performance
Macro update:
US ADP employment rose in line with the market’s estimate. In the month of November, private payrolls rose by 190,000, following a 235,000 rise in October. This number matched the market’s estimate. Specifically, factories added 40,000 jobs, the highest in almost 15 years. However, construction payrolls dropped by 4,000. As such, employment in the good producing sector rose by 36,000. Additionally, service payrolls rose by 155,000, following a 150,000 rise in October. Payrolls rose the most in the education and health services sector, as employment increased by 54,000. This was followed by the 47,000 payroll gains in the professional and business services sector. These latest numbers suggest that the US labor market remained resilient after the hurricanes. Overall, the US labor market continues to remain strong. The next numbers that will be closely watched will be the non-farm payroll numbers. Economists expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 200,000 in November.
Fixed income market:
Thai government bond yields stayed unchanged. The 2-yr and 10-yr yield remained unchanged for 3 working days at 1.49% and 2.56%, respectively.
US treasury yields declined. The 10-yr and 2-yr treasury yields dropped by 1 bps to 2.34% and 1.81%, respectively.
US ADP employment
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 May-16 Dec-16 Jul-17
ADP Employment Change (,000) 4-month moving average
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
1700
1850
2000
2150
2300
2450
2600
2750
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17
%
S&P Index 10yr Treasury yield, right
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
1.20
1.50
1.20
1.50
1.80
2.10
2.40
2.70
Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17
10yr Treasury yield, % 2yr Treasury yield, % (right axis)
1
2
3
4
Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17
%
policy rate 2y 5y 10y
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17
2-10 spread 2-5 spread 5-10 spread
bps
.
Thai government bond yields
Bond Market Indicators
US government bond yields
Thai government bond yields spreads
10-yr UST vs. S&P 500
FX Market
Current trend: The market is waiting for clearer progress on the US tax reform front, which is expected to support the dollar as the recent quantitative tightening program has not yet strengthened the dollar. Otherwise, the other currencies are expected to fluctuate within the narrow range and remained on an appreciation stance against the dollar. On the Thai monetary policy front, the BOT is expected to stay on pat as domestic demand remains weak. As for the USD/THB, the high current account surplus will likely slowdown the rise in the USD/THB.
• EUR/USD dropped by 0.25% to 1.1796. The euro dropped yesterday due to positive dollar sentiment this week. The US ADP employment supported dollar the dollar’s strength.
• USD/JPY dropped by 0.28% to 112.29. The yen appreciated against the dollar.
• GBP/USD declined by 0.36% to 1.3394 due to Brexit concerns. The UK only has 24 hours left to come up with a deal regarding the Irish border; this deal needs to be finalised by Friday. During this time, the UK government needs to find a mutual solution with the DUP party in order to avoid a hard border within Ireland. Otherwise, Brexit negotiations might not be able to move forward.
• Asian currencies depreciated against the dollar. The dollar index improved by 0.20% to close at 93.38 yesterday. Based on ADP Research Institute numbers, US private sector employment normalized, with job gains of 190,000 in the month of November. This suggests that there was further strengthening in the US labor market. As a result, investors expect a continued drop in the unemployment rate this Friday.
• USD/CNY was unchanged. The exchange rate dropped somewhat by 0.01% to 6.612.
• USD/THB barely inched with a 0.01% rise to 32.62%. The baht moved within a narrow range.
Currency Movement
Market Strategists:
Peerapan Suwannarat
Tel: 02 470 1031
Anchali Singh
Tel: 02 470 3235
Morning Daily
Spot 6-Dec-17 5-Dec-17 % Change 4Q2017 1Q2018
USD/THB** 32.65 32.62 32.62 0.01 32.70 32.25
USD/JPY 112.44 112.29 112.60 -0.28 113.00 114.00
EUR/USD 1.1797 1.1796 1.1826 -0.25 1.17 1.17
GBP/USD 1.3381 1.3394 1.3442 -0.36 1.32 1.32
USD/CNY 6.614 6.612 6.612 -0.01 6.650 6.650
USD/SGD 1.3496 1.3489 1.3470 0.14 1.3600 1.3700
USD/IDR 13,549 13,540 13,519 0.16 13,500 13,520
USD/MYR 4.08 4.08 4.06 0.30 4.20 4.15
USD/PHP 50.71 50.77 50.64 0.26 51.50 51.40
USD/KRW 1,096 1,094 1,088 0.57 1,120 1,111
USD/TWD 30.06 30.01 29.99 0.06 30.30 30.10
AUD/USD 0.754 0.76 0.761 -0.57 0.77 0.77
USD/CHF 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.25 0.99 0.99
JPY/THB 29.04 29.05 28.97 0.28 28.94 28.29
EUR/THB 38.51 38.48 38.57 -0.25 38.26 37.73
GBP/THB 43.68 43.69 43.85 -0.35 43.16 42.57
CNY/THB 4.94 4.93 4.93 0.02 4.92 4.85
Source:Bloomberg and KBank**
Closing rates Consensus forecast
KBank THB NEER index
As of 6th December, 2017
118.43
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
100
103
106
109
112
115
118
May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18
KBank NEER,base = Jan 1995, left Latest data point, left BOT NEER, base = 2012, right
KBank Rich / Cheap Model
As of 7th November, 2017
10
6
4
-1
-4
-14
-12
-7
-2
2
-10
-6
10
5
1
17
4
-4
11
1 1
8
-4
-8
-2
-22
11 11 13
4
-11
-16
-25
-15
-5
5
15
LB17
OA
LB18
3A
LB18
3B
LB19
1A
LB19
3A
LB19
6A
LB19
8A
LB20
6A
LB21
3A
LB21
4A
LB21
DA
LB22
6A
LB22
NA
LB23
3A
LB23
6A
LB24
4A
LB24
DA
LB25
DA
LB26
7A
LB26
DA
LB27
DA
LB28
3A
LB29
6A
LB31
6A
LB32
6A
LB36
6A
LB38
3A
LB39
6A
LB40
6A
LB41
6A
LB44
6A
LB46
6A
bps (actual YTM vs model) 3 mth avg Now
Fixed Income Auctions for December 2017
7 Note: Auction schedule is based on information from PDMO and
BOT; may be subject to changes.
Unit: million baht
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Total
1
CB17D19A : 20,000
TB18307A : 10,000 30,000
4
CB18308B : 30,000
CB18607B : 30,000
CB18D06A : 55,000
5 6
LB316A : 12,000
7 8
TB18314B : 10,000
BOT202A : 15,000 152,000
11 12
CB18315C : 30,000
CB18614A : 30,000
13
LB26DA : 13,000
14
BOT198A : 50,000
15
123,000
18
TB18321B : 10,000
19
CB18322B : 30,000
CB18621A : 30,000
20
LB466A : 12,000
21 22
82,000
25
TB18328B : 10,000
26
CB18329B : 30,000
CB18628A : 30,000
27 28 29
70,000
KBank Rich-Cheap Model
Note: As of October 7th, 2016
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
LB17
6A
LB18
3A
LB18
3B
LB19
3A
LB19
6A
LB19
8A
LB21
3A
LB21
DA
LB23
3A
LB23
6A
LB24
DA
LB25
DA
LB26
7A
LB27
DA
LB29
6A
LB32
6A
LB38
3A
LB39
6A
LB40
6A
LB41
6A
LB44
6A
3 mth avg Now
bps (actual YTM vs. model)