5th dimension vol 3

[email protected]

http://sites.google.com/a/spjimr.org/thefifthdimension/

The Verdict : 2009

A PGPM 508 Initiative to share views from a different dimension

20 May 09

Election Special - 03

Inside this issue:

Employment, 2

Economy , Telecom 2

Security , Agriculture 3

Education, Power 3

Infrastructure, Healthcare 4

Judiciary System 4

RJD & Left Parties 5

Team Saksham

Anindya

Arobinda

Arun

Balaji

Priya

Sachin

Swapnil

India has made its choice and results are out. It

was not just an electoral exercise, but an event of

such a magnitude that will never be seen in the

world. All credits to P Chidambaram for keeping it

as smooth as possible.

As a single party, Congress has gained 38% of

the 543 seats, which is a big achievement and it

is a 45% gain over the 145 seats it won last time.

The 61 seats won by Congress over its last elec-

tion‟s tally of 145 have been lost by BJP, LEFT,

SP & RJD.

Above score

card clearly

h i g h l i g h t s

the strength

of different alliances and parties

on the political number game.

This shows a lateral shift in the

judgment of people of India

while voting to select their new Central Govern-

ment. The election results have proved that for

forming a government single party majority does

not matter anymore (mind you it is very much

important if we are talking about meeting the

magic number 272), because the alliance as a

whole will take all the decisions. This shows a

change in people‟s perspective and may be if this

is some indication that we are moving towards a

POLLUMOUR

By On Ali Tinwala

PGPM

by Arobinda

a bipolar kind of equation at the center; one alli-

ance in the ruling seat and another alliance in

the opposition seat, serving their whole 5 year

term. This will help them focus upon real issues

of governance rather than worrying about their

chairs.

The UPA has been bestowed upon more power to

introduce and implement its policies without

much hurdle this time. Congress and other ruling

members of UPA must understand the verdict of

Indian population for the benefit of all. The same

„junta‟ will watch them closely and make con-

scious notes of all activities. Clear majority has

attracted other so called non-co operative parties

of Congress to support government at center -

RJD, SP & BSP have said that they will support

UPA. We have not forgotten Lalu‟s comment that

he will never ever join Congress. So we can very

well understand the motive behind these three

parties‟ wanting to support UPA.

The BJP has been humbled, but has survived in

most of the states where it is strong, except in

Rajasthan. In other states, the Congress has won

largely against regional parties and the Left. If

the BJP does genuine introspection, it will realize

it has steam to turn into a robust opposition.

So verdict 2009 is very clear but it will

be very interesting to see how UPA government

tackles all its challenges and keep people moti-

vated to support them again for 2014 elections.

General Elections 09 : An End has a Start…. by Swapnil

India‟s jumbo election came to an end and peo-

ple‟s verdict has set the beginning of a stable,

unifying government in the world‟s largest de-

mocracy. Congress‟s tally highlights the biggest

win by any party in last 18 years. UPA is back,

fuelling hopes that the long-awaited surge in

reforms may finally take place, to help the econ-

omy to rebound. Indian corporate responded in

positive tone. “This is good for India and good for

the world,” said Rahul Bajaj, chairman of Bajaj

Auto Ltd. TC, DMK and NCP are the main allies

this time but their numbers isn‟t great enough to

create any pain.

The first challenge for the new government is to

revive falling growth and make it more inclusive.

Government should understand that inclusive

growth does not just mean farm loan waiver or

the National Rural Employment Guarantee

Scheme. These schemes throw money at the

poor and destitute without actually helping them

climb up the economic ladder. The poor must get

a chance to move into the modern, high-

productivity sectors. India‟s expenditure in social

sector like education and healthcare

is very low. Govt. should invest

in education and also do se-

lective privatization so that the

poor acquire the skills needed

in modern jobs. Unless there is

massive employment genera-

tion, the poverty cannot be tackled. We have

analysis of each sector in the sections to follow.

Indian electorate has shown once again that they

opt for moderation and balance, especially in

troubled times. Will the end of political uncertainty

be the beginning of India‟s century? History has

shown us that whenever the Congress enjoys

unbridled power; its factions tend to get arbitrary

and unilateral. If we take their past achievements

as an indication to future, then we could expect

another five years of lackluster management. The

parties in the government must understand that

ours is a largest functioning democracy and peo-

ple vote for the betterment of the country. If they

don‟t perform to people‟s expectations, they will

perish as this is not going to be the last general

elections.


[email protected]


The 5th Dimension

Sector Wise Analysis : Economy by Himanshu

The results of the 15th Lok Sabha elections

were even more unexpected and surprising than

that of an IPL match. Thanks to the people of

India for not making it a tie! Dr Singh has a

daunting task at hand to revive the ailing Indian

economy following a worldwide economic melt-

down. Congress in its manifesto takes pride in

achieving an average growth of 9% per year in

the first four years of its coalition government- a

first in India. Dr Singh inherited shining India

when he took over as PM in 2004 but now in his

second term as PM, he faces a crumbling econ-

omy, soaring revenue and fiscal deficits, declin-

ing tax and non-tax revenues, stalled reforms,

threat of rating downgrades, low corporate mo-

rale and volatile stock markets.

In the build up to general elections

2009, there had been reckless spending over

past 2 years on subsidies, farm loan waiver and

huge increases in the salaries and pensions of

government employees following the Sixth Pay

Commission recommendations. The government

was way off initial FRBM target of 2.5% fiscal

deficit in 2008-09 as it touched 7.8% of GDP.

The only silver lining for the new government at

this point of time is the low inflation rate. But

with the monetization of fiscal deficit, this situa-

tion can also exacerbate very soon.

The only way to bring down the reve-

nue and fiscal deficit would be to drastically cut

down the expenditure in the form of subsidies.

Other measures to be seriously pursued include

pushing the disinvestment program, putting

thrust on physical infrastructure programs, rais-

ing the limit for FDI in various sectors and re-

suming the stalled reform process. The govern-

ment has to play the next 5 years as a test

match and plan accordingly instead of playing a

20-20 match.

Employment is one of the key socio-economic

factors describing the growth of an economy.

The current unemployment rate in India is

7.32%. India's labor force is growing at a rate of

2.5% annually, but employment is growing at

only 2.3%. Thus, the country is facing a chal-

lenge not only to absorb new entrants into the

job market (estimated at 70 Lakhs people every

year), but also to clear the backlog. Reforms and

policies devised and implemented by govern-

ment plays a very important role in creating new

jobs.

Skills create employment and self

employment opportunity. Government should

promote vocational institutes at regional and

district level and provide vocational training at

subsidized costs. Efforts should be made to

identify and implement systemic reforms in ad-

ministration of Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs)

to facilitate closer interaction with the industry

to improve quality of training and help the un-

employed earn decent wages. Government

should promote Entrepreneurship by extending

bank credit and conducting entrepreneurship

training.

The UPA leaders have been speaking

about Inclusive growth as a part of their agenda.

The idea of true inclusive development would

mean that even the poorest Indians get a

chance to move into the modern, high-

productivity sectors. The UPA govt. should take

steps to revive labor laws to encourage use of

less expensive capital and more permanent

labor. Reforms should be implemented to ease

the doing of a business and even shutting down

of a business. To equip poor people with neces-

sary skills, the UPA government should encour-

age public investment in education and do se-

lective privatization. We need to watch what

reforms and policies the govt. would implement

to achieve the inclusive growth. The govt. should

definitely spread the benefits of economic ex-

pansion and revived growth into different sec-

tors as investments, to generate more jobs. A

comprehensive mechanism needs to be built

through which government can ensure that poli-

cies reach the grass root level people.

Sector Wise Analysis : Telecom by Sorabh

There was stupendous rise in the telecom sector

from 2003 to 2008. The growth was mainly due

to opening up of the sector to foreign invest-

ments and relaxation in policies.

New government now has to come up

with a plan for growth where tele-density of the

country can be increased from 36% to match to

that of developed nations.

Achieving such a growth depends on

the quality of service provided; reach to rural

sectors, facilitating unbiased allocation of 3G

spectrums among new and existing players,

increasing the cap on FDI under automatic

route, and harmonizing actions between TRAI

and TDSAT.

It will also be in interest of Government to speed

up the policy details on 3G and Wi-Max alloca-

tion by bringing consensus between financial

and telecom ministries to assuage revenue

losses amounting to billion of dollars.

After all we have lessons to be learnt

from 2G spectrum allocation in 2008 where

First-Come-First-Served (FCFS) was adopted and

spectrum was allocated at Rs 1651 crore per

company against market prices which were al-

most six times higher.

Sector Wise Analysis : Employment by Kalpesh


[email protected]


The 5th Dimension

The whole of Indian sub-continent is passing

through a tantalizingly delicate phase in terms of

stability, internal and external securities. Our

neighbors, be them Nepal, or Pakistan, or Bangla-

desh or Sri Lanka, are going through violent political

and military unrest. Our bitter sweet eastern

neighbor China is a constant threat in the North

East border. Surrounded by such extreme examples,

India has seen its security breached many a times in

recent past - the attack on the parliament and the

serial blasts in Bangalore, Hyderabad and Guwahati

and of course the three day urban warfare of

26/11. With Pakistan's "jihadist Frankenstein mon-

ster" forcing its army to remain focused on India,

experts feel that there is possibility of another

26/11 style attack on the country.

Every terrorist attack on India has proved time

and again that Indian Security infrastructure

needs rejuvenation. We have to think and act

against such internal and external threats by go-

ing beyond a "political” debate. The government

should accept our weaknesses against such at-

tacks and take constructive steps to anticipate,

prevent and counter such future terrorist and

cyber terrorism activities. India does not have

technical resources and expertise as well as legal

framework to tackle terrorism and cyber terror-

ism. The UPA government should realise this and

recruit and train security forces to handle situa-

tions of extreme terrorism like that of 26/11.

The lives of the people and the pride of the nation

are at stake. With the new government at the

centre, we citizens can probably hope for a holis-

tic security policy, a facelift of the security forces

and a foreign strategy that will keep the infiltra-

tors, terrorists and attackers at our bay.

Sector Wise Analysis : Agriculture by Sorabh

Look at these numbers, agriculture contributes 16%

to the country‟s GDP, employs around 60% of the

workforce and sector is growing at an abysmal aver-

age rate of 2.5% for some years now. We all know

that illiteracy, insufficient finance, undeveloped

market channels, irrigation infrastructure and heavy

dependence on monsoons are to be blamed. But

the Government cannot simply play blame game

with the rain gods any longer if India dreams to be-

come the economic superpower of tomorrow. It con-

stituted some measures in terms of National Rural

Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), facilitating

free distribution of electricity to farmers by state

governments, waiver of farm loans etc. But its right

time for it to seize opportunity to look at what

schemes worked and which haven‟t given the de-

sired results. It needs to bring transparency in im-

plementation of NREGA by looking at employment of

contractors, mass fudging of muster rolls and insti-

tutional kickbacks still prevailing. It needs to access

the allocation of farm loan waivers to the marginal

farmers severely affected and at same time work on

revival of indigenous and sustainable farming prac-

tices. It needs to increase outlay for agricultural

research and policy planning for agricultural sur-

pluses and deficits. There is need to develop the

right infrastructure which can support the farmer to

take rational decision based on commodity price

movements and sell it‟s produce at the right price.

With UPA govt. getting its numbers right in parlia-

ment, it now should help agriculture sector score

the right numbers on India‟s balance sheet.

As it stands today, public policy paradigm in India

needs to provide utmost top priority to Education –

primary, secondary and technical. NPE (national

policy on education, 1986) stressed on higher

spending on education, envisaging a spending of

6% of the GDP. In practice, however, it has rarely

exceeded 3 per cent.

Problems of less qualified teachers, very low

teacher- student ratios, inadequate teaching mate-

rials and out-dated teaching methods result in a

low quality of education that often imparts little or

no real learning.

Sound policy-making decisions in higher education

can ensure that India keeps churning out not just

talented employees for enterprises and busi-

nesses of all sizes, but also tomorrow‟s entrepre-

neurs and business leaders who can create world-

class companies from scratch.

The expectations from new government are very

high. The new government‟s policies should aim to

empower people and reduce disparity between

them rather fuelling any sort of divide based on

irrational reservation policies or benefits that cater

only to small segment of the society. Policy makers

have to formulate and implement future strategies

in favor of vibrant India.

As has been proved with many other sectors, edu-

cation also needs liberalization with an effective

regulatory environment. The government needs to

put more thought to retain the quality of the brand

IIT and IIM. About 93% of the total workforce

high entry barriers in the transmission and distri-

bution segments. The other barriers are fuel link-

ages, payment guarantees from state govern-

ments that buy power and retail distribution li-

cense. Currently, India needs to double its genera-

tion capacity in the next 7 to 10 years to meet the

potential demand. An immediate curb on T&D

losses (in India it is 25% against < 15% for devel-

oping economies) and proper realization of reve-

nues will give a great boost to this sector and its

future. But there is a catch. Some time back a

report showed that if India can control its power

transmission losses, India will need no additional

power for a decade. Anybody listening??

Sector Wise Analysis : Security by Santanu

Sector Wise Analysis : Education by Abhishek

Sector Wise Analysis : Power by Anindya

The current capacity of the Indian Power Sector

147965.41MW, with per capita power consumption

at 612 kWH. The contributors are Thermal – 63.3%,

Nuclear 2.8%, Renewable Hydro-24.9% and others

8.9%. The power shortage for 2008-09 was 11%

and peak load deficit of 12%, which is expected to

be 9.3% and peak shortage of 12.6% in 2009-10.

The Electricity Act 2003 brought some notable re-

forms like free permission of Captive Power Genera-

tion, Unbundling of SEBs. Introduction of Availability

Based Tariff systems with Unscheduled Interchange

have greatly disciplined the Power Sector of India.

The Power Sector requires immediate solutions to


[email protected]


The 5th Dimension

Sector Wise Analysis : Infrastructure by Aparup

“Rome was not built in a day”…But Rome was

what it was because of its built. Infrastructure is

the ABC of the development chapter of any

country.

All the developed countries develop the infra-

structure first and then create the necessity for

the people to use. On the other hand in India,

only when necessity pushes the government to

the brink, does it think about infrastructure. The

question is how can India sustain an 8% plus

annual growth rate by reforming its agricultural

sector, improve education and health care, open

its economy for reaping the benefits of globaliza-

tion and emerge as a true world power if it is

constrained increasingly by inadequate infra-

structure development.

Although the stock markets have spurred up due

to the FII‟s, it is too early to say that revival in

corporate spending into infrastructure projects

will start soon.

The new government should pace up the policy

implementation and should not make any ex-

cuses in their execution to attract funding and

investments from global and domestic investors

into the infrastructure projects and housing

sector.

A report from Goldman Sachs says that afford-

able housing in India is seriously undersupplied.

It is estimated that due to the growing urbaniza-

tion India needs 30million units. Making attrac-

tive policies in the housing sector and their im-

plementation would be a huge challenge for the

government in the coming 5years.

People of India have done a splendid job by

choosing a stable government to take the pro-

ceedings further. It is now the responsibility of

UPA to boost the confidence by making eco-

nomic policies and execute them as quickly as

possible.

Sector Wise Analysis : Healthcare by Jaspal and Sankar

In a nation like India, where there is no formal

social security system in place and tax rates are

high, healthcare and health insurance are very

crucial. The current condition of healthcare facili-

ties available for lower and lower-middle class

people is dismal. The condition in the govern-

ment hospitals keeps deteriorating day by day.

There is a tough road ahead for the current gov-

ernment to support high standards in healthcare

and at the same time make it affordable for all.

The government can promote affordable Health

Insurance program through cooperative society

n e t w o r k s

espe c ia l l y

for those

who cannot

meet their

m e d i c a l

expenses.

We can expect the government to give impetus

to medical tourism by changing its policy such

as increasing FDI limits, giving incentives and

tax breaks for opening state of the art hospitals

in the country. It will increase the quality of

health-care and free up some of the government

medical infrastructure which could be used to

serve the poorer section of society.

We all remember the age old phase “Health is

Wealth”. This is also true in literal sense too. As

per the data available, a turnover of Rs 1 crore

in the IT industry would mean employment for

five to seven people while the same turnover in

the healthcare industry would employ 250 peo-

ple. One of the expectations from new UPA gov-

ernment will be to drive the economy on basis of

growth in the healthcare industry by framing

policies and guidelines scrupulously. The future

of Healthcare sector looks bright and promising.

Need of the hour is for the government and pri-

vate sector enterprises to join hands and boost

the Indian healthcare sector.

Sector Wise Analysis : Judiciary by Jagadeesan, Chandra & Sandeep

The Supreme Court of India is at the apex of the

hierarchy and has exclusive original jurisdiction

to all disputes between the Union and one or

more states or between two or more states.

Twenty-One High Courts presided by a chief jus-

tice each stand at the head of the state's judicial

administration.

The UPA Government in its last tenure had taken

prompt steps to drastically cut delays in High

Courts and lower levels of the judiciary. Notable

among them were filling up of vacancies of High

Court Judges, continuous focus on Fast-Track

courts to dispose of long pending cases and

introduction of computers with internet system

in almost all the courts. The National Legal Liter-

acy Mission was launched by the National Legal

Service Authority (NALSA) for the benefit of

millions of poor and disadvantaged sections of

the society. Under the Lok Adalat System more

than half million Lok Adalats were organized

during five years in which about five million

cases were settled.

Any legal system, based on the rule of law,

must, first and foremost, enable any citizen to

set in motion the machinery of the law, civil and

criminal, without any impediment and quite

regardless of the wishes of the men in power.

However most of our laws are archaic in nature

and can be legitimately questioned. We need

“Desuetude”- a natural exit policy for the old

laws or some kind of a change. Hope the fresh

UPA Government under its able prime minister

will introduce reforms to make sense of this

archaic system of laws!


[email protected]


The views, analytics and interpretations expressed are strictly of the team.

Is Mr Laloo Out? By Ajit

Mr. Laloo Prasad Yadav, who till few days back

called himself kingmaker, has been left with

nowhere to go.

He lost the reign in Bihar to Nitish Kumar in

2005 assembly elections. By then Laloo had

already started focusing on Centre and with his

26 member of parliament emerged as strong

pillar of UPA government in 2004. However with

just 3 MPs to show in the 15th Lok Sabha, Laloo

has been pushed to oblivion.

Critics of the democracy have always raised

serious doubts over the capability of illiterates &

poor people to select right candidates to run this

country. In election 2009, in one of the most

backward states of our county, Bihar, the same

section of society has proved that they can also

judge their leaders on the "intellectual" parame-

ters like infrastructure development, law and

order and good governance. It is this section of

our society that participates in election in large

numbers to keep democracy sustained and

these people can appraise their political leaders

as rationally as any intellectual class of this soci-

The 5th Dimension

No. of Seats

Dear 5th Dimension readers & followers, today when, Dr. Manmohan Singh is all set to take oath

as PM for 15th Loksabha, we conclude our „election special‟ series with this third volume. We

started amidst huge uncertainties on who will stake claim to form new government - time to time

we provided our views on party manifestos, political and social needs of Indian population, role of

professional independent candidates, our prediction and expert analysis on exit poll surveys and also

provided insight on key aspects of Indian electoral system. 16th May came up with great surprise with results going way beyond

all predictions and UPA getting the near clear majority in the house. We are happy to conclude this series with hopes of positive

revival of economy, better security measures and prosperity for our citizens under new stable UPA government.

„Team Saksham‟ would like to thank you all for extending your support and for being source of our

strength time to time. We will be back soon with entirely new series of 5th Dimension on a new ex-

citing theme. Stay tuned!

Predict the Result

We carried out the

“Predict the result” con-

test. We had asked the

participants to predict the

seats for INC, BJP, Left,

SP and BSP. And the win-

ner with least deviation is

Rajesh Kumaran

(PGPM508).

Do not fall in love By Aparup & Mihir

In the global recession there is one thing obvious

that market driven economy of capitalist coun-

tries can also fail by the greed of people. West

has come under a grave strain as financial capi-

talism erupted in a full blown financial crisis.

There are many people who are preferring com-

munism but ask CPI(M) party who could not get

any favor in the last parliamentary election.

It failed miserably in the WB(9 seats),

Kerala(4) though it got both the seats in Tripura.

Learning:

Lately I was trying to relate this action oriented

event in our day to day classes and what we

could learn from it. Every party is an organiza-

tion.

Experience matters as well as do energy and

excitement. Grooming of young leaders is must

in any situation.

Get closer to your people: People do matter, it

doesn‟t matter they are rural, urban or rich; they

are your capital asset. Where you are, you are

because people have placed you there. One of

the most important qualities which modern day

leaders must acquire is to use their intuition.

Does it really work? Never forget to ask this

question while you are formulating some rules

and policies. The second question to always

ponder upon is, are there enough alternatives

and if yes, then what they are.

Change means breaking old habits. It means

admitting that you were wrong, and this is never

easy. It means losing face. It means starting all

over again. And this is always painful. It means

saying I am sorry. It means recognizing that we

can be better. These things are terribly hard to

do. But unless we start, we will be trapped for-

ever in old ways. As I have always said, never

fall in love, always rise. May be its time for the

communists to rise from the ground where they

had fallen in love with their own idealisms and

forgotten people. Only time will show.

Team Saksham with

Prof. Jiban Mukhopadhyay
