Migration

3 Models, 1 Set of Laws

Rave

nst

ein

’s

Law

sPatterns of Migration

Rave

nst

ein

’s

Law

s 1. Most migrants only

go a short distance 2. Longer-distance

migrations favor big

city destinations 3. Most migration

proceeds step by step

Hie

rarc

hal S

tepw

ise

Move

ment

Vari

ed S

tepw

ise

Rave

nst

ein

Law

s co

nt.

4. Most migration is

from rural to urban 5. Each migration flow

produces a counterflow

6. Most migrants are

adults; families are less

likely to make international moves

7. Most international

migrants are young males (equal male/female today)

Zelin

sky’

s M

obili

ty (

or

Mig

rati

on)

Transi

tion

Model Developed by Wilbur

Zelinsky (1921-2013)

Zelin

sky’

s M

igra

gio

n

Transi

tion M

odel Connection between DTM and Migration

Zelin

sky’

s M

igra

gio

n

Transi

tion M

odel

The type of migration

that occurs within a country depends on how developed it is. A

connection is drawn from migration to the

stages of the Demographic Transition Model.

Zelin

sky’

s M

igra

gio

n

Transi

tion M

odel

Phase 1: Premodern Traditional

Society Before the onset of urbanization. Very little migration.

Natural increase rates

are about zero

Phase 2:Early traditional societyMassive movement from

countryside to cities. Rapid rate of natural increaseZ

elin

sky’

s M

igra

gio

n

Transi

tion M

odel

Phase 3: Late Transitional Society Urban-to-urban

migration surpasses

rural-to-urban migration. Non-economic migration and circulation begin to

emerge. Natural increase slows

Zelin

sky’

s M

igra

gio

n

Transi

tion M

odel

Phase 4: Advanced society We mostly see

movement from city to

city and within individual urban agglomerations.

There is slight natural

increase—or none at

all

Zelin

sky’

s M

igra

gio

n

Transi

tion M

odel

Phase 5: Nearly all migration is

interurban or intraurban No plausible predictions of fertility

behavior Stable natural increase pattern below

present levels.Zelin

sky’

s M

igra

gio

n

Transi

tion M

odel

Lee’s

Model o

f M

igra

tionReason for migration. Take Push and Pull factors one step further

Lee’s

Model o

f M

igra

tion Introduces the idea of

“Intervening Obstacles” that need

to be overcome before

migration takes place

Lee’s

Model o

f M

igra

tion

Source and destination

are seen as possessing a range of

attributes; each would-be migrant perceives these attributes differently

depending on personal

characteristics, such

as age, sex and marital status

Lee’s

Model o

f M

igra

tion

Lee’s

Model o

f M

igra

tion

Gra

vity

Model Predicts movement (migration)

Gra

vity

Model

Takes into account the

population size of two

places and their distance. Since larger

places attract more people (and ideas and

commodities) than smaller places, and places closer together

have a greater attraction, the gravity

model incorporates these two features

Gra

vity

Model

The relative strength

of a bond between two

places is determined

by multiplying the population of place A

by the population of

place B and then dividing the product by the distance between the two places squared

Gra

vity

Model

Population A x Population

B Distance 2

Gra

vity

Model

The potential number

of migrants will be large if they are departing from a place

with high population

and moving to another

place with high population The friction of distance

acts as a break

Thin

gs

to

Rem

em

ber

Economic factors are the

most influential push

and pull factors Individual migrants

weigh up the positives

and negatives (can be

perceived) Policy makers can slow

rural-to-urban migration

through investment and

employment opportunities

The E

nd