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39SilentKillersofyourFantasyDraftME:Asyougetreadyfortheupcomingfantasybaseballseason,thereissomethingyouneedtoknow. YOU:What?Who,me?

Yes,you.Nomatterhowlongyou'vebeenplayingthisgame,therearedozensofdeliberateandsubconsciouspitfallsyou'vebeenstumblingintoeachyear.I'vebeenplayingfantasybaseballforover30years,andfrankly,sometimesIcan'thelpmyselfbutmakethesamemistakesoverandoveragain,too.Butthesearenotjustrandommistakes–theyaresilentdraftkillers–andtheyaffectourabilitytoevaluateplayersandplanourrosters.Inmanycases,wedon'tevenrealizewhatwe'redoingwrong,butoursuccessdependsonit.SoIthoughtyoushouldknowaboutthem.

AreyousayingthatI'macrappyfantasyplayer?No,no.Unlessyouarewinningeveryyear,youarelikemosteveryoneelse,andwealltendtogetpulledin.Butit'sgoodtobeawareofthesesilentkillerssoyoucanworktoovercomethem.Icount39ofthem. 39?That'salot.Seriously?Hearmeout.I'llevenkeepcountforyou.InGeneralWeallknowthatbaseballlendsitselftoanalysis.Theresultofeachat-batisanindividualeventthatcanbemeasured.Butthismeasurementisalwaysafterthefact.Wecancounthowmanyhomerunsaplayerhits,butthatisonlyafterhe'shitthem.Theproblemcomeswhenwetakethenextlogicalstepandtrytopredictwhatplayersaregoingtodointhefuture.

(1)But,asmuchaswetry,nobodycanreallypredictthefuture,atleastnotwiththelevelofprecisionnecessarytohavemeaningfulcontroloverbuildingateam.Still,everyyear,wecontinuetocreate,enhanceandfine-tunepredictivemodels.

Areyoudissingalltheworkthat'sbeendoneinadvancedbaseballanalysis?No,thereisnothingwrongwithmoreandbetterdata.Coresabermetrics,gaugeslikeWARandwOBA,advancedgranulardatafromPitchF/X,Statcastandheatmaps–areallvery,veryimportant.Thebetterthatwecandescribetheelementsofperformance,thebetterwecanassessskill.Thenweoftentakethenextstepandtrytousethosemethodstovalidatestatisticaloutput.That'sareasonableexercisetoo.Aplayermighthit40homeruns,butwhenwedeconstructeventsintogranularcomponentssuchascontactrate,exitvelocityandbattedballdistance,wecangetasenseofhow"real"those40HRswere.Wecandeterminewhethertheplayer'sskillsetsupportedthathomerunoutputingeneralterms.That'sstillsolidanalysis.(2)Butthenwetakeitasteptoofar;wetrytoattachanumbertoit.Weanalyze:"Basedonthecomparableexitvelocityofallotherplayers,heshouldhavehitthreemoreHRs,allthingsbeingequal."Buttheproblemis:allthingsareneverequal.Youcanneverreplicateoneseason'sperformanceinanotherseason.Conditionsarealwaysdifferent.Sowhilethisisaninterestingexercise,itprovideslittleactionableinformationwhenitcomestosubsequentyears.Tellmethattheindicatorspointtoanincreaseordecreaseinpowerskills,showmetheareasofgrowthorerosion,evengooutonalimbandtellmethataplayerisgoingtofalloffacliff–butdon'ttellmethataplayerisgoingtohit35HRs.Don’ttellmeheisgoingtosteal25bases.Don'teventellmethatheisgoingtohaveanERAsomewherebetween3.29and3.54.Iknow–weneedthesenumberstoplaythegame.Wemusthaveplayerprojections,andweneedtoconvertthemintodollarvaluesorrankingpositions.Weneedtobuildbudgetsandrosterplans,andsetstatisticaltargetsbasedonallthisdata.Butnomatterhowexhaustiveajobwedoinassemblingourdraftprepmaterials,thenumbersweusetoplanoutourrostersarealwayswrong.Checkitoutyourself.Lookbackatlastseason'sprojectionsoneventhestableplayers.Theyneverhitexactlytheprojectednumber,andoftenit'snotevenclose.Evenwitharangetoworkwith–thefinaloutputisalmostaslikelytoendupsomewhereoutsidethatrangeasinsideit.

Yes,noprojectionisgoingtobeexact.Butcan'tweexpectthattheover-projectionsandunder-projectionsaregoingtoevenoutacrossanentireroster?

(3)No,wecan'texpectthatatall.Infact,yourleague'swinnersandloserswillmostlikelybedeterminedbyabasicreportcardofoversandunders.Theteamwiththemostorbiggestover-performerswillalwayshavethebestoddsofwinning,regardlessofhowclosetheirprojectionswereoverall.Truestory:Backinthe2015FSTAexpertsleague,myoveralldraftreportcardwasterrible.Ofthe29playersdrafted,Ihadonlynineprofitablepicksandonlyfiveon-parpicks,but15outrightlosers,includingsixinthefirsteightrounds.Byallrights,thisteamshouldhavebeenadisaster.Butmyninewinnerswerebigwinners,includingthebreakoutyearsofJakeArrieta(9thround),J.D.Martinez(14thrd),MannyMachado(15thrd),XanderBogaerts(16thrd)andDallasKeuchel(19thrd).Ifinishedonedayandtwopointsshortofatitle,eventhoughmyoverallprognosticatingprowesswasawful.Sowereallycan'trelyontheprojectionsgettingustowhereweneedtogo.Yeteveryspringwegobackthroughthesameprocessalloveragain. Areyousayingthatallmydraftprepisawasteoftime?It'snotacompletewasteoftime,butweputfartoomucheffortintotheprocessandfartoomuchcredenceintheminutia.(4)Westilllookata30-HRperformance–or50steals,or200strikeouts,etc.etc.–andfixateonthosenumbersasiftheyholdsomereligioussignificance.Wearestillseducedintomakingimportantdecisionsbasedonthewildallureofsmallsamplesizes.Westilltrytoferretoutpatternsinthestats,evenifwhatwe'relookingatismostlynoise.Westilllookatresearchresultsbasedonaggregatedataanddrawfiniteconclusionsaboutindividualplayers.Andrecencybias?Oh,don'tgetmestarted.Ashardasitistocomprehend,thereisoftennotasignificantdifferencebetweena3rdroundplayerandan8throundplayer,orbetweena$19playeranda$9player.AndyetweagonizeoverADPsandengageinauctionbiddingwars.Hereisarundownofmanyofthelessons,truismsandproclamationswe'vemadeovertheyears.Somanyacceptedtruths,somuchofitmisguided.Thesearethestatisticalandpsychologicalcliffswekeepstumblingoff.Somanywaysthatwearejustlookingatthingsallwrong.Thefollowingresearchfindingsareallvalid;thecitedauthorsarefromtheBaseballForecaster,BaseballHQ.comandothersources.Ifnoauthoriscited,it'smyownresearch.StatisticalBaselines:AreTheyReal?Withthetoolscurrentlyavailabletous,themaximumprojectiveaccuracywecanhopetoachieveis70percent.Thisisanumberthatwe'vebeenthrowingaroundforalong,longtime.

(5)Butwhatthatmeansis,thebestwecanhopetobeis30percentwrong.Thirtypercentisalot!Itmeansbeingoff,onaverage,bynineHRsfora30-HRhitter,60strikeoutsfora200-Kpitcheror12savesfora40-savecloser.That'sthebestlevelofwrongnesswecanreasonablyexpecttoachieve.Andfewofuswilleverachieve"best."

Seriously?Isthistrue?

Eh,Idon'tknow.That'sthenumberwe'vebeenusing,andfrankly,Idon'trememberhowtheyarrivedat70.It'spossibletherecouldbeabettersystemoutthere–onethatexceeds70percent–butIdon'tknowthatyou'dbeabletoproveit. Why?Becauseoneseasonrepresentsonlyasingledatapointforanalysis,andthatissimplynotenough.Everyyear,wegainnewknowledgethatcompelsustoimproveandfine-tuneourforecastingmodels.Amodelweusedin2012mightbecompletelyoverhauledby2015.However,that2012modelmighthavebeenmoreaccurateoverafiveor10-yearperiod.Wenevergiveourselvesachancetofindout.(6)What'smore,giventhatthestatisticallandscapeisalwayschanging,we'relikelynevergoingtohavedatathat'sstableenoughtodeemanymodeloptimalanyway.Ifwemadeadjustmentstoa2015modeltoaccommodatetheupcoming2016season,oddsareitwouldbeacompletefailuregiventheoffensivesurgethatyear.Andthenifweappropriatelyprojectedregressionfor2017,we'dhavebeenwrongagain.(7)Wherewouldwegofromthere?

Maybeyoucan'tevaluateanentireseasonofprojections,butwhataboutindividualplayers?That'sallthatmattersanyway.

Sure,wecantry.Thereareoverallskillsmetricsthatareconsideredgoodevaluatorsoftalent,likeonbase-plusslugging(OPS).Butlet'ssaythatIprojectaplayertohaveanOPSof.840andheendsupwithanOPSof.840. Um…thatwouldbegreat!Except,this(8):2016 HR SB BA OBP Slg OPSDexterFowler 13 13 .276 .393 .447 .840EvanLongoria 36 0 .273 .318 .522 .840IfIprojectedLongorianumbersandheproducedlikeFowler,I'dhardlycallthatasuccessfulprojection.ButOPSthinksso.Andtherearedozensoftheseeveryyear!

Baseballanalystsusevariousstatisticalprocessestocomparetheaccuracyofonesetofmetricstoanother.You'llseethesemethodsusedtomeasuretheaccuracyofplayerprojectionstoo.Therearefrequentstudiesthatinvolveagroupofforecasters,oftencomparedtoacontrolgroup–likeasimpleage-adjusted,weightedthree-yearaverage(theMarcelMethod)–andtoeachother.Usingtheresultsofthesestudiestodeterminethebestsystemhaslittlevalue.Thetestgroupstypicallycoverhundreds,orthousands,ofplayers.Thevariancebetweenanyonesystemandanotherusuallyamountstoahandfulofpercentagepointsovertheentirestudygroup.It'snotsomethingthat'sgoingtoprovideanybenefitforatinysampleof23playersonafantasyroster.Thereisnowaythatyoucancoveryourriskandvolatilityoverarostersizeofjust23players.(9)ThisisapointIamgoingtocomebacktoseveraltimes.Aleadingwebsiteoncepublishedacomparativeanalysisofseveralforecastingsystems,usingthestatisticalmeasuresofcorrelationcoefficient,meanerrorandrootmeansquarederror(don'tworry,you'renotgoingtobetestedonthis).Theirresults: Mean CorrelErrorRMSESystemA .690 .067 .084SystemB .694.066.084SystemC .711.064.085SystemD .692.067.085SystemE .715.064.081Forwhatit'sworth,SystemCwasdeemedmostaccurate,thewinner,theprognosticationchampion!Butthereisnowayforyoutoleveragethatminutevarianceinaccuracyoverjust23players,or40,orevenseveralfantasyrosters'worth.Soyoucanpickalmostanysystemandhavejustasgoodofachanceofwinningasanyother.TheTruthAboutVolatilityAccordingtotheresearchofPatrickDavittofBaseballHQ.com,normalproductionvolatilityvarieswidelyoveranyparticular150-gamespan.A.300careerhittercanhitanywherefrom.250to.350,a40-HRhitterfrom30-50,anda3.70/1.15pitcherfrom2.60/0.95to6.00/1.55.Alloftheserepresentnormalranges.Soifabatterhits31-.250oneyear,36-.280thenextyearand40-.310thethirdyear,youdon'tknowwhetherthatisgrowthornormalvolatility.Infact,thelow-endand/orhigh-endpointscouldbeoutliers.Butnearlyeveryonewillseeitasatrendandcallitgrowth.(10)AprojectionforyearNo.4willeithercontinuethisperceivedupwardtrendorshowregression.Andanyoneofthemcouldberight.Orwrong.ItactuallywouldbealoteasierifeveryplayerperformedlikeChrisDavis:

Year HR BA OBP Slg R$2012 33 .270 .326 .501 $182013 53 .286 .370 .634 $362014 26 .196 .300 .404 $82015 47 .262 .361 .562 $262016 38 .221 .332 .459 $122017 26 .215 .309 .423 $5IloveChrisDavis.Hedoesn'thidehisvolatility.It'sall-clothes-off,outthereintheBaltimoresun.Hetrumpetsthefactthatthere'snowaytopinhimdown.Ishea.220hitterora.270hitter?Canweexpect25HRsor45HRs?Butwhilethisdatasetisimpossibletoprojectintonextseason,it'snearlyconsistentwithinanormalrange.Youprobablycouldn’tconvincemanypeople,butthisisprettymuchthesameplayereveryyear. I'mstartingtopullmyhairout.Completelyunderstandable.Butthere'smore.Researchhasshownthat150games,oraboutthelengthofasinglebaseballseason,isnotenoughofasamplesizetobeareliableindicatorofskillforsomestatistics.Forinstance,astatlikebattingaveragedoesn'tstabilizeuntilabout910AB,accordingtoRussellCarleton.Sowecan'tdefinitivelydrawconclusionsafteroneseason.(11)Youcan'tlookatabatterwhohits.230oneyearand.270thenextandcallthat"growth."Whatyou'dmorelikelycallthatisa.250hitter.MyfriendChris?He'syourbasic.240shitter,eventhoughhe'sneveractuallyhadabattingaverageinthe.240s.Butwhatdoes.240meananyway?Or.300?Or.250?Or.200?Thelinewedrawinskillsbenchmarksisincrediblygrey.(12)We'llchasea.300hitterasbeingsignificantlybetterthana.250hitter,however,over550AB,thedifferenceisfewerthan5hitspermonth.Thedifferencebetweena.272averageanda.249average–stillperceptivelydifferent–istwohitspermonth,oronehiteveryotherweek.We'lloptforapitcherwitha3.95ERA,passingoveronewitha4.05ERA.Butwhat'stherealdifference?Apitcherwhoallows5runsin21/3inningswillseeadifferentERAimpactthanonewhoallows9runsin3innings,eventhough,forallintentsandpurposes,bothgotrocked.Thatcouldbeyour0.10varianceinERArightthere.Thelinewedrawbetweensuccessandfailureisalsoincrediblygrey.(13)AbatterwhoseHRoutputdropsmighthavehadaconcurrentincreaseindoublesandtriples.ApitcherwhoseERAspikesmayhaveseennodegradationinskillsbut

wasbackedbyapoordefenseandabullpenthatallowedmoreinheritedrunnerstoscore.AspeedstermayhaveseenhisSBtotalplummetonlybecausehewastradedtoateamthatdidn’trun.Aclosermayhavebeenaseffectiveaseverbutlostthe9thinningroleasaresultofatradeoramanagerwithaquickhook. It'slikenothingisrealanymore.Oh,it'sreal.Theissueishowyouinterprettheserealities.I'mtryingtomakeacasethatourtrusted,comfortablestatisticsarenottheplacetofind"real."Thisbecomesmoreproblematicwhenwetrytoprojectthefuture.Garbagein,garbageout.Andhonestly,beyondthevolatilityinthenumbers,thereistoomuchuncertaintyformanyplayerstopindownastatlineanyway.(14)

• Howdoyouhandleplayerscomingoffofaninjury-marredseason?CanyoutrustthatMadisonBumgarnerandNoahSyndergaardwillreturnto200inningsofvintageperformance?

• Canyoureasonablypro-rateamid-seasoncall-up'sstatlinetoafullseason?HowconfidentareyouthatRhysHoskinswillget35HRsafter170ABofmajorleagueexperience?

• Islastyear'spitchingbreakoutstarreallynowinthesameclassasthegame'selite?AreyoureadytodraftLuisSeverinoasyourstaffanchor?

Idon’tknow.Youdon'tknow.Nobodyknows.Butsomeoneisgoingtohavetoslapabunchofnumbersontheseguysinorderforyoutodraft,right? Um,right.Well,won’tthey?Theywill,butyoudon'thavetobuyintoanyofit.RefutingSomeTrustedVariablesTherehasbeenatonofresearchdonetoisolatecertainvariablesanddrawconclusionsfromthem.Butthenwetrytousetheaggregatedatafromthisresearchandpassjudgmentaboutindividualplayers.Theproblemisthattheseresultsreflecttendenciesonamacrolevel.Noneofthemproduceapercentageplaythat'sgoodenoughtomakemicroplayerdecisionswithanyconfidence.Astandardfantasyrosterwith23playersiswaytoosmallasamplesizeforanyofthistomatter.(There'sthatstatementagain.)Youarenotgoingtobeabletoleverageminisculepercentagedifferenceswithsofewchancestoberightorwrong.(15)Those23playersarejustnotenoughopportunitiestocoveryourrisk.

Herearethreewidely-usedvariablesthatarealmostalwaysawasteoftimetoworryabout.(16)Age:Researchshowsthatplayers'skillspeakatacertainage–26,23,28,31,27–pickanumber.Butthosearejustroughaverages.Noteveryplayerisgoingtopeakatagivenage.Sotargeting28-year-oldsinyourdraftwillonlypayoffifyou'reinabout30leagues.Andeventhen,youmightenduppassingona21-year-oldrookiewhohitsthegroundrunningoradecliningveteranwhohasahugereboundseasonatage39.Withonly23chances,theoddsofrosteringanoutlierarenotmuchdifferentfromtheoddsofrosteringaplayerthatfitsyourtarget.However…thereareafewtimeswhentheoddsarehighenoughtopursue.Eventually,playersageoutofrosterableskills.Thatageisdifferentforeveryplayer,buttheoldertheyget,thehighertheodds.So,ifaplayerhasacareeryearinhismid-to-late30s,betagainstarepeat.Ifaplayerhasacrappyyearinhislate30s,betagainstarebound.Thosearehigherpercentageplaysandareprettymuchtheonlyonesworthchasing.(ThoughtherewillalwaysbeaPED-fueledMarlonByrdtoscrewthingsup.)(17)Parkeffects:Iknowfromexperiencethatmosttoutsgothroughapainstakingconversionprocesseverytimeaplayerswitchesteams.Iusedtoaswell.ButI'vecometofindtheexerciseofadjustingprojectionsforparkeffectsmostlyawasteoftime.In2014,wesawBrianMcCannmovetoYankeeStadium'shitterparadisethatshouldhaveturnedhiminto30-plusHRmonster.Anychangeinpowerskillwasfarshortofexpectation.Wasn'tNelsonCruz'spowersupposedtodisappearmovingfromBaltimoretoSeattle?Itdidn'thappen.Evenextremeballparkchangesareinconclusivebecausetherearealwaysothervariablesinplay.Thatbringsupabiggerquestion:howdoyouknowthatanincreaseordecreaseinaplayer'soutputisreallypark-related?Ifa30-HRhittermovestoaparkthatincreasespowerby20percent–whichisahugeleap–thenwecouldexpecthimtonowbea33-HRhitter(thepercentageonlyaffectshomegames).Buta3-HRincreaseiswellwithinthelimitsofnormalstatisticalvariance.Howdoweknowthatnormalskillsgrowthdidn'tdrivetheincreaseinhomeruns?Orsimplestatisticalvolatility?Oratrioofwell-timedgustsofwind?It'sevenmorefuzzywithratiogauges.(18)However…ifyouaregoingtouseitatall,focusonthemargins.Thenoticeableimpactsareonlygoingtocomefromahittermovingfromoneofthebesthittersparkstooneoftheworst,orviceversa.Theinversegoesforpitchers,obviously.Ihavegivenupcalculatinganythinginbetween.

(19)Teamsupport:Ifyouhavetwoplayersofcomparableskill,butoneplaysonacontenderandtheotherplaysonadoormat,you'llalmostalwaysoptfortheplayeronthebetterclub.Teamenvironmentmatters,right?MorerunsandRBIs,morewinsandsaves.UnlessyouinvestedintheGiantsandMetsin2017,twoteamsthatweresupposedtocontend.Ormaybeyoubetheavilyonthe2015championRoyalstobebetterthana.500clubin2016.Failuretocorrectlypredictteamenvironmentforthoseclubshadahugeimpact.Evenpickingtherightteamisnoguarantee.In2016,CarlosCarrascoandDannySalazaronthe94-winIndiansonlywon11gamesapiece.The2015Dodgersshouldhavebeenaprimetarget,butnobodybehindAdrianGonzalezamassedmorethan60RBIs.Asatie-breakerwheneverythingelseisequal?Sure.ButI'mwillingtobetyoucanfindsomeothervariablethatwillhavemoreofanimpact.KillerADPsandDollarValuesTryingtofindsomestabilitywithinRotisseriedollarearningsorAverageDraftPositionrankings(ADPs)isnolessfrustrating.Thereisonlya65%chancethataplayerprojectedforacertaindollarvaluewillfinishtheseasonwithinplus-or-minus$5ofthatprojection.Thatmeans,ifyouprojectaplayerwillearn$25andyouagonizewhenbiddinghits$27,thereisreallyabouta2-in-3shotofhimfinishinganywherebetween$20and$30.(20) SoIshouldn'tworryaboutthoseextrafewbucks?Inmostcases,no.Butauctionpricingisgoingtobemarket-drivenanyway.So,ifyouareconvincedthataplayerisworth$25andlandhimfor$21,youwillhaveoverpaidiftherestofyourleagueseeshimasnomorethana$19player.Evenifheisreallyworth$30.

Arrrgh!Igiveup.AreyousayingIshouldjustpaywhateverforwhoeverandnotworryaboutbudgetsorbargainsorvalueoranything?!

(21)Youstillneedtofollowthemarket,butingeneral,yes.Forecasterswillgiveyouastatlinethatwillsplitthedifferencebetweenhigh-endandlow-endprobabilities.Theyhavenochoicebuttohedge;thereistoomuchrisktocommittoanyoneendoftheperformancespectrum.Reputationsareatstake!Soifallthetopanalystsdon'tknowwhattheheckeachplayerisgoingtodo,clearlytheotherownersinyourleaguehavenoclueeither.Youneedtodecidewhetheraplayerisworthowningandthenjustfollowthemarket.Mostfantasyleaguersdon'tdraftthatway.

I'vesaidthisoften:thetwomostpowerfulforcesknowntomanareregressionandgravity.Ifyou'reeverfacedwiththequestionofwhethertoprojectaplayertoimproveordecline,thebetterpercentageplaywillalwaysbeDECLINE.Butthatrunscountertowhatwewanttoseeinourplayers.That'swhywearesoinfatuatedwithupwardlymobilerookiesandanydatathatevenremotelyhintsatimprovement.Wecravesleepers!BringmemoreSLEEPERS!(22)But,FACTS:FACT:Playerswhoearn$30inaseasonareonlya34percentbettorepeatorimprovethefollowingseason.(MattCederholm)FACT:Pitcherswhoearnlessthan$24inaseasonretainonly52percentoftheirvaluethefollowingyear.Moreexpensivepitchersdoretain80percentoftheirvalue.(MichaelWeddell)That80percentisnicebutitstillmeansyouracepitcher'svalueisgoingtodecline.Ifyouarelookingforvalueretentionorareasonablereturnonyourinvestmentinthisgame,you'replayingthewronggame.Thisisnolessevidentinsnakedraftleagueswhenitcomestotheverybestplayers.Onewouldthinkbaseball'selitestarsarethemostprojectablecommodities.Onewouldbewrong.(23)FACT:ThesuccessrateofADPrankingscorrectlyidentifyingeachseason’stop15players(inanyorder)isonly35percent.Infact,thosetop15playersfinishsomewhereinthetop30only53percentofthetime.(Studyperiod:2004-2016)Sohere'sthetakeaway:Whenyousitdownatthedrafttable(oryourcomputer,whatever)andstartagonizingoverwhoisgoingtofalltoyouinthefirstround,thereisnearlyatwo-in-threechancethatwhoeveryouendupdraftingwillbewrong.About10ofthefirst15playerstakeninyourdraftwillnotearnbacktheirowner'sinvestment.

That'sridiculous.You'relying.Seemsthatway,right?ButrememberthatAndrewMcCutchenwasafirst-roundpickinboth2015and2016,andfinished32ndand141st,respectively.DittoforGiancarloStanton,whofinishedNos.156and260.BryceHarper?Givemeabreak:Year Pre-seasonrank Finish2014 10 3192015 29 72016 3 982017 9 34 It'seasytocherry-pick.

Okay,wellconsiderthefollowingplayerswhoshareasimilarcharacteristictoCutch,StantonandHarper:RyanBraun,ChrisDavis,PrinceFielder,CarlosGomez,AdrianGonzalez,CarlosGonzalez,JoshHamilton,FelixHernandez,RyanHoward,MattKemp,EvanLongoria,MarkTeixeiraandTroyTulowitzki.All13playersholdthedistinctionofsportingafirstroundADPsometimebetween2011and2015…andeveryoneofthemfinishedtheseasonatleast100spotsfromthatADP.It'sjustfurtherevidenceofthevolatilityofstatistics,evenatthetop.TheLogicalTruthsAboutPEDsIhavewrittenextensivelyabouttheimpactofperformance-enhancingdrugsonthestatisticsthatdriveourgame.Whilethereremainsdisagreementamonganalystsabouthowrealormeasurabletheimpactis,therearefivelogicaltruthsthataretoughtodeny.1.Peoplearegenerallyhonest,exceptifit'sachoicebetweenhonestyandsurvival.2.Forproathletes,survivaloftenequatestomaintaininganedgetostaygainfullyemployed.3.IfPEDsdidnotimproveorsustainperformanceinordertogiveathletesanedge,whywouldtheyaccepttheriskofusingthem?4.Thedruglaboratorieswillalwaysbeonestepaheadofthedrugtesters.5.Youcan'tdismissthepossibilitythatanyradicalswinginproductivitycouldbecausedbyaplayer'suseordiscontinuanceofPEDs.

Ugh.IhatetalkaboutPEDs.Areyoutryingtosaythatallplayersaremotivatedtocheat?

No,notallofthem.Butit'syetonemorevariablethatputsthe"realness"ofallstatisticsatrisk.Andunfortunately,it'snaïvetothinkthatthelackofdailyPEDheadlinesmeanstheproblemhasbeencontained.(24)Theabovetruthsdon'tchange;neitherdoestheefforttocoverupPEDuse.

ButwhataboutallthoseminorleaguersintheMitchellReport?Aren'ttheyproofthatPEDsdon'twork?

ForanyallegedPEDuserswhofellshortofarealMajorLeaguecareer,it'spossiblethattheyneverwouldhavemadeitoutofrookieballwithoutthathelp.Wedon'tknow.TheimpactofPEDsisrelativetoeachplayer'sactualskilllevel.Thatmeansweneedtoquestionthelegitimacyofperformancestatsthroughouteverylevelofproball.Probablycollegeandhighschooltoo.

Ithinkmyheadisgoingtoexplode.Trytohangon.There'sonemorestatvariable.I'vesavedthebiggestoneforlast.TheBlackHoleofPlayingTimeYoucandoalltheskillsassessmentyouwant,butthebaneofourexistencehasbecometheblackholeofprojectingplayingtime.It'sanearlyimpossibletask.

Youmakeitsoundlikeit'sanewproblem.Becauseitisarelativelynewproblem.Twentyyearsago,projectingplayingtimewasjustanothervariablepronetosomenormalvolatility.Itwasnomoredifficulttoprojectthanhomersorstrikeouts. So,whatchanged?ContinuallyescalatingMLBplayersalariesandthecrackdownonPEDsreachedatippingpointinthemid-2000s.Theresult?Withteamsbendingoverbackwardstoprotecttheirhigh-pricedinvestmentsandplayersrunningscaredofgettingnailedbydrugtesters,thesafeharbortostashbodiesbecamethe15-dayDL.In2007,thenumberofdisabledlistdaysspikedfrom22,472to28,524.Fiveyearslater,itcracked30,000.During2016-2017,playersaveragedover31,000daysontheDL.EachtimeaplayerhitstheDL,itcreatesanopeningforanotherplayertofillthevoid.MoreDLstintsmeanmorenewplayersclaimingapieceoftheplayingtimepie.

Sowhat?Wecan'tbetalkingaboutthatmanynewplayers.(25)Well,waybackin1985,about39players,onaverage,wouldappearonamajorleaguerosterduringthecourseofaseason.In2017,thatnumberexceeded52.Whilethenumberofplayersseeingmajorleagueactioneachyearisrising,thenumberofgameshasremainedthesame.Eachteamstillplays162games,whichgeneratesanearlyfixednumberofoutsandinnings,andaverynarrowrangeofplateappearance.Thesedays,availableplayingtimeisthesamebut13moreplayersperteamarefightingforapieceofit.We'vebeengoingintoour15-teamdraftswithprojectionsallotting6500ABand1450IPofplayingtimeto345players(15teamsx23playersperteam).Butwereallyneedtoallotthosesameat-batsandinningsto465players,thenumberwhoareactuallygoingtobeseeingthatplayingtime.Mostvaluationsystemsdon'tdothat.(26)

Ifwefailtoaccountforthatreality–andarenotatleastreasonablyaccurateinthateffort–thefalloutishuge:From2013to2017,between47percentand58percentoftheADP'stop300playerslostplayingtimeduetothedisabledlist,demotion,suspensionorrelease.Sinceplayingtimeisazero-sumproposition,thoselostABandIPhadtogosomewhere,andinfact,morethan70percentofthemostprofitableplayersweredrivenbyunexpectedincreasesinplayingtime.Theopportunityforthoseplayingtimeincreaseswaslargelydependentonexternalevents,virtuallynoneofwhichwerepredictableonDraftDay.Andso,morethan70percentofeachseason'smostprofitableplayerswereunpredictableonDraftDay.Asyouwouldexpect,thesemostprofitableplayershadadisproportionatelylargeimpactonwhowontheirleagues.Researchshowedthat25percentoftheteamsowningoneormoreofthemostprofitableplayerswontheirleagueoutright.Morethan50percentofthoseteamswiththemostprofitableplayersfinishednolowerthanthirdplace.Thebiggestdrivingforcebehindallthat–changesinplayingtime–wasunpredictableonDraftDay.

Wow.So,allinall,areyoutellingmethat,despiteallthemassiveeffortwe'vebeenexpendingtoconstructelaboratesystemstoprojectplayerperformance,noneofthenumberscanbetrusted?

Well,wecanalittle,butnotenoughforittomatter.Andthenumbersarejustpartoftheproblem.TheMindGamesWastelandEvenifyoubuyintoeverythingI'vewrittensofar,ourbrainstillplaysitsowntricksonus.Therearepsychologicalpitfallsthatalsodousharm.(27)Webasedecisionsonsmallsamplesizes.Timeforafairytale:"Onceuponatime,therewasafringeoutfieldprospectintheTampaBayRayssystemnamedJoeyRickard.TheRaysthoughtsohighlyofthisprospect–whohadmanagedjust13HRsin1,237careerminorleagueABs–thattheylefthimunprotectedinthe2015Rule5draft,wherehewasquicklygrabbedupbytheBaltimoreOrioles.Now,theOrioleshadnoshortageoffringeoutfieldtalentthatMarch.ButRickard'sspringtrainingperformancewasHall-of-Fame-worthy–arobust.397/.472/.571slashlinein63at-bats(withonehomerun)againstamixtureofveteransgettingtheirrustoff,marginalsworkingonanewpitch,andminorleaguersplayinglikeminorleaguers.TheO'sweresoimpressedthattheynamedhimtheirOpeningDaystartingleft-fielder.

Thankfully,participantsinthenationalexpertsleagueswerenotfooled.Theyknewthat1,237minorleagueat-batsfaroutweighedRickard'squestionable63-ABsmallsampleMarchperformance.Sohewentundraftedinnearlyeveryexpertsleague.Butinthefirstweekoftheseason,Rickardposteda.467/.438/.733line(withonehomerun)in15AB.Thatweekend,morethan50expertsacrosssixleaguesplacedfreeagentbidsfortheO'sstartingleft-fielder,withanaveragewinningbidofnearly$150(outofa$1000budget).Isupposeevenexpertscanlosetheirminds.Allthosepreciousfreeagentdollarsweretossedarounddueto15atbats!Andnotjustany15AB.Itwas15ABagainstthepowerhousesinMinnesotaandTampaBay.ThepitchersRickardfacedinthosecoldBaltimoreoutingscollectivelyposteda7.23ERAin18.2IPthatweek.RickardfinishedAprilwitha.280average,twoHRsandoneSB.HefinishedMaywitha.249average,fourHRsandthreeSBs.Hewascutfromnearlyalltheexperts'rostersbymid-June.TheOriolesputhimontheDLwithathumbinjuryinJuly,wherehestayedfortherestoftheseason.Andnobodylivedhappilyeverafter."

Fessup,Shandler.Ibetevenyouplacedabid.Sadly,yes.I'lladmitthatIplacedalosingbidof$57inTout-AL.Intoday'sfantasyenvironment,weallthinkweneedtoatleasthaveahorseintherace.(28)Thereisalwaystheslightestchancethataplayercouldsustaintheirperformancelongenoughtohaveapositiveimpactonyourroster,right?ButRickard'sownersinvested15percentoftheirentirefreeagentbudgetsonaspeculationthat78at-batsagainstquestionablecompetitionweremorelegitimatethantheprevious1,237ABs.Thatdecision-makingshowshowyoucanbeblindedbysmallsamplesizes.(29)Wetrytoferretoutpatternswithinstatisticalnoise.Humans(includingyouandI)arehard-wiredtotrytofindpatterns.Initsgrandestsense,wedothistosurvive.Theworldisfullofchaosandit'sthewayourbrainsattempttocreateorder.Baseballanalysisissimilarlyallaboutfindingpatternsindata.Weseeabatterhitting8,10and12homerunsinsuccessiveyears,andweimmediatelylabelthatasagrowthtrend.(30)Maybeitis.Butresearchbackin2010byEdDeCariashowedthattheoddsofthenextdatapointinthatseriesbeing14aresmall.Infact,thegreatestoddsarethatthenextpointregressesbackto10,oreven9.

Asdescribedearlier,sincethatwedon'tevenknowhowreal8,10and12are,it'sdifficulttoconcludethatthereisanytrendatall.That8-HRyearcouldhavebeen13iffiveofhisdoubleshadtraveledanother5feet.That12-HRyearmighthavebeen9ifnotforthosethreenightswhenthewindwasblowingout.Wefantasyleaguersneedtofindpatterns.That'sthestartingpointfortheentireforecastingprocess.Butwhenthedataitselfissuspect–obscuredingreatmeasurebynoise–maybeit'sbetternottobelookingforsomethingthatmightnotexist.Likebettersentencestructure.Let'splayalittlegame. Oo,Ilikegames!Good!Hereisashortseriesofdatapointsrepresentingoneplayer'sRotisserieearningsduringhisfirstthreeyearsinthemajors:$7,$15,$18.Tellmewhatyouthinkheearnsinyear#4.

Well…itseemslikegrowth,butyouwarnedmeagainstassumingthat.I'lltakethebait.I'llsaythatheearns$16inyear#4.

That'saveryreasonableguess.Anyof$14,$15or$16wouldtakeanappropriatelevelofregressionintoaccount.Inyear#4,thisplayeractuallyearned$23. What?Youtrickedme!Ididn'ttrickyou.Thisisanactualplayer.So,nowyou'refacedwitha4-yeartrend:$7,$15,$18,$23.Whatdoesthisplayerearninyear#5?

Okay,nowyou'rescrewingwithme.LogicdictatesthatIsay$19or$20,butyou'vealreadyprimedmetoexpecttheunexpected.I'llsay$25.

Anothergoodguess.Mostanalystswouldprobablyhavestuckwithsometypeofregressedvalue,andIcantellyouthattheForecasterprojectedthisplayertoearn$22inyear#5.Butheactuallyearned$28.

Ofcourse.Fourstraightyearsofincreasingearnings–isthisarealplayer?ShouldIbelieveyou?

Youcanchoosewhattobelieve.Butlet'skeepgoing.We'renowat$7,$15,$18,$23,$28.Whatdoeshedoinyear#6?

Thereisnowaythiscankeepgoing.I'mgoingtosay$24.That'smyfinalanswer.

Andthatisthecorrectplay.Regressionisalwaysthecorrectplay.TheForecasterprojected$26.Butheactuallyearned$32.

You'replayingme.Youclearlypickedanoutlier…ifheactuallyexistsatall.Well,that'sonethingyougotright.Aplayerwiththisconsistenta5-yeartrendisclearlyanoutlier.Doyouwanttokeepgoing? Sure,whynot?It'sonlyaguessinggameatthispoint.Okay.$7,$15,$18,$23,$28,$32.What'snext? Regressionisalwaysthecorrectplay…evenwhenitisn't.I'llsay$29.RememberthatMattCederholmsaid,"Playerswhoearn$30inaseasonareonlya34percentbettorepeatorimprovethefollowingseason."Giventhat,itwouldseemthattheoddsofhimcontinuingtoimprove,orevenholdingsteady,arelow.Inyear#7,heearned…Waitforit…$28. Hooray!Theplanetsfinallyalign!Doesitkeepgoing?Forsure.Therearetwomoredatapoints.$7,$15,$18,$23,$28,$32,$28.It’snolesstrickynow.Was$28anoutlier?Doesherebound?Ordoesthedownwardtrendcontinue?

I'dhavetosayhe'sathispeakandwouldprobablybouncearoundabitforafewyears.I'llpeghisearningsat$30.

Yeah,that'sareasonableassumption.But,no.Heonlyearned$19. $19?!Yougottabefreakin'kiddingme.It'sallreal.$7,$15,$18,$23,$28,$32,$28,$19.Forthislastdatapoint,I'llgiveyouonehint:hewas30yearsoldthatseason. Ugh.Thiscouldbethebeginningofthedownslope.Buthe'snotthatoldthathe couldstillreboundalittle.I'llsay…$22.Nah,$14.Forecastingisatoughgame. Morelikeasucker'sgame.Whowastheplayer?Washereal?

AdamJonesisveryreal.Andasmuchasthisexercisewasfrustrating,alookatJones'careerprovidesaprettyslickbellcurve:$7,$15,$18,$23,$28,$32,$28,$19.$14.Wewouldbesoluckyifeveryplayer'scareerfollowedasfineatrendasthis.They'dbeacinchtoprojecteachyear(oh,theirony!).

Waitaminute.Isanyofthisdatavalid?CanweevenuseRotisserieearningstoevaluateplayers?Isn'tthisthesameargumentyoumadeagainstusingOPS?

You'reright;nicejob.That'swhyallofthesedatapointsaresuspect.(31)AdamJones'bellcurveisprobablynotnearlyasconsistentasitseems.ChrisDavis'valuesareprobablynotaserraticastheyseem.(32)Wearelargelydrivenbyrecencybias.Weliveinaworldwherewe'reinundatedininformation.It'sfartoomuchtoprocesssowehavetorelyonsmallerchunksthatareeasiertoremember.Andtheeasiestpiecesofdatatorememberarethoseclosesttothesurfaceofourconsciousness.AskmewhatIhadforbreakfastthismorningbutforgetaboutmerememberingwhatIhadfordinnertwonightsago.

Whatdidyouhaveforbreakfastthismorning?Um…Idon'tknow.Regardless…Theeffectsofrecencybiasonmanagingourfantasyteamshavegrownovertimeastheamountofinformationwe'vehadtoprocesshasgrown.Partofitisjusttheendlessquesttograbatwhateverwecan.I'vealreadytalkedaboutsmallsamplesizes–that'spartofit–butthesedays,evenapartialseasonofaberrantperformanceoftentrumpsa10-yearcareerofconsistency.Recencybiasdriveseachyear'sADPs.Thequickestwaytoearnafirstroundrankingistopostfirst-roundearningsthepreviousyear.Thesenewriserswhohavesupplantedthevetscouldwellbethenextwaveofstartalent,butarewepassingjudgmentafterjustoneseason?(33)Afterall,outliersrunbothways.It'slikewecompletelyignoreoneoftheveryfirsttenetsofbaseballprognosticating:Don'tprojectaplayerbasedononeseason'sstats.After30years,havewelearnednothing?WasitnotludicroustoincludeJonathanVillar'snameamongtheTop20playerscominginto2017afteroneextraordinarybutanomalousseason?DidVillarreallytakesuchastepupafterthreemediocreseasons?Maybehedid,butareyougoingtobetonitbycommittingacorerosterspottoaspeculationofguaranteedgreatness?Villar'sADPwasNo.19.HefinishedrankedNo.280.

Thishappenstimeandtimeagain.Whydopeoplekeepdoingthis? Maybewedon'twanttomissout.(34)Wemakedecisionsbasedonthefearofmissingout.Igetitthatyoudon'twanttobetheguywhomissesoutontheoneplayerwholegitimatelytakesahugestepup.Butwerewereally,reallyabsolutelycertainthatapedestrianperformerlikeVillarhadreallyskyrocketedintostardom?Enoughtoriskanall-importantearlyroundpick?EveryyearbringsanotherexampleofwhathappenswhenyoubuyintotheFearofMissingOut.Evenifaplayerperformsclosetoexpectation–likeKrisBryantdidin2015–over-draftinghimofferednobenefit.TheteamsthatwonleaguesthatyearwerenotthosethatownedBryant,becausehewaspurchasedatnearlyfullvalue.Therewasnoadvantagetopayingthatmuch;therewasonlytheriskthatanunprovenplayerwouldfail.(35)Similarly,thosein2016whodraftedCarlosCorreaamongthetop10playersoverpaidasCorreafinishedoutsidethetop70.Whenyoudraftaplayerlikethatasafoundationpiecetoyourroster,thereisfarmoredownsidethanupside.Ifheisfullyproductive,you'vesetaveryhighbarforhimtoreturnparvalue.Perhapshehasahigherfloorthanothers,soyourdownsideismitigated.Butwesimplydon'tknowwhatthatrangeis.Hereismycompletelyunscientifictakeontheoddsforthattypeofplayerasatoppick:Profit 1%Parvalue 20%Someloss 60%Majorloss 19%Youcanquibblewiththepercentages,butthegeneralconclusionhastobethesame:whatareyouchasing?Ifyou'reoverpayingforaspeculationatthedraft,you'realsopotentiallypassinguponprofitopportunitieslateron,especiallyinauctionleagues.(36)Asmuchasyouthinkyoucanfindprofitineveryplayer,youonlyget23chances,andthereareatleastadozenotherguysinyourleague,allthinkingthesameway.Thisisparticularlydangerousintheearlyroundswherewe'veshownthatouroveralltrackrecordisterrible.Hereareafewinterestingplayersofnote: #yearsdraftedin1stRd #yearsearnedPlayer forFearofMissingOut 1stRdvalueTroyTulowitzki 4 0EvanLongoria 3 0CarlosGonzalez 4 1PrinceFielder 4 1

Talkaboutdoingthesamethingoverandoveragain,andexpectingdifferentresults.Isn'tthatthedefinitionofinsanity?(37)WebasedecisionsonNOW.Thereisasubconsciouspartofusthatactuallyagreeswiththefactthatyoucan'tpredictthefuture.Ifourdecision-makingprocesswasfullyconsciousanddeliberate,wemighttakeanobjectivelookateachsituationwithaneyetowardstomorrow.Instead,wetendtotaketheeasywayoutandjustviewwhatishappeningrightnowasafixedreality.Butrealityisnotfixed.Itisfluid.Onedecisionbegetsuncertainoutcomes,whichbegetotherdecisions. English,please.Atleastgivemeanexample.Okay.Here'sanotherfairytale:"Onceuponatime(early2015),therewasacloserfortheSeattleMarinersnamedFernandoRodney.Hehadavolatilecareer–someverygoodyearsandsomeverybadones–anddespitetherebeingsomequestionabouthisabilitytoholddownacloser'srole,InternationalExpert(andManofIntrigue)RonShandlerspentfull-pricecloserdollarsforhiminToutWars($16).Shandlerreasonedthat,despiteRodney'serratictrackrecord,hewasthecloserNOW.Asitwouldturnout,itdidn'ttakelongforRodneytoturnintoapumpkin,wipingoutShandler'sinvestment(andrelegatinghimtolastplaceinsavesfortherestoftheseason).WhenCarsonSmithinnocuouslyslidintoSeattle'scloserrole,heimmediatelybecametheNOWguy,andfantasyleaguersaroundtheworldproceededtoexhaustasignificantpartoftheirfreeagentacquisitionresourcesonapitcherwithfarbetterskillsthanthedeposedRodney.Because,betterskillsandNOW.TheseNOWinvestmentsalsocomewithasubconsciousexpectationoflongevity–weexpectthepitcherwillholdtherolefortherestoftheyear.Butwhenitcomestoclosers,theyholdthatroleuntiltheydon't,andsometimesthein-seasonshelflifeforthatroleisweeks,ordays.Smith'sninthinning"BestifUsedBy"dateexpiredafterabouttwoandahalfmonths.HestartedlosinggamesandblowingsavesinlateJuly,andwassupplantedbyTomWilhelmsonbymid-August.Wilhelmson'sskillsetpaledincomparisontoSmith's(andonceSmithlosttherole,hedidnotgiveuparunfortherestoftheseason)butthat'snotwhatrealityisabout.WilhelmsonwasnowtheNOWguydrawingwhatevermeagerfreeagentresourceswerestillleft.

Aftertheseasonwasover,theMarinersrespondedtoallthisbytossinglastyear'sNOWguystothecurbandstartingoverwithabunchofnewNOWguys.Andtheyalllivedhappilyeverafter.ExceptforShandler."Thesestoriesdon'tseemtohavehappyendings. Iassumeyoudidn'twinToutWars.Um,no.Buttheexperienceisrepresentative.Hereareotherwaysthatourdecision-makingprocessesareinfluencedbyNOW:(38)Therearesomeplayerswholockdownrolesattheveryendofspringtraining.Theserosterdecisionsaresometimesbasedonjustoneortwogamesoflateperformance.WetreatthoseNOWguysasfixedrealities,biddingthemuptofullvalueonDraftDayasif"winningajob"istheonlyprerequisitetofull-seasonsuccess.Thisalsogoesbacktothesmallsamplesizediscussion.(39)YourNo.4startingpitchergetsofftoaridiculouslygoodstart.Despitethefactthathisskillshavenotchangedsubstantiallyandhisrecentsuccessisagainstweakcompetition,yourefusetoentertaintradeoffers,becauseheisdoingwellNOW.Whatifhekeepsitup?AreyoucontractinganacutecaseofFearofMissingOut?Manyofthesepsychologicalkillersareinterrelated.Theyareallobstaclestosuccess.

You'veexhaustedme.So,whatcanIdotoavoidallthesepitfalls?

Youcancontinuetomuddlethroughasalways,hopingLadyLuckwillfindyounextyear.Or…youcantakeamoredramaticpath,regaincontrolofyourfantasyteams,andgetadivorce. Adivorce?ButIkindastilllikemyspouse.Youcankeepyourspouse.I'mtalkingaboutadifferentkindofdivorce.Whatistheoneelementofplayingfantasythatyouarecompletelycommittedto?Youspendcountlesshoursobsessingoveritanditdrivesyoureverymove.Intruth,youareprobablymoremarriedtothisthanyourspouse. Um…thenumbers?That'sright.Thestatsdriveeverythingyoudointhishobby,butasI'veshown,theyhavebeenleadingyoudownadarkpath,offacliffandintoanabyss.

That'sharsh.Butaccurate.Thesearekillers,afterall.So,thequestionis,canyoubuildasuccessfulfantasyteamwithoutanystats?

Idon'tseehow.Weplaythisgamewiththenumbers.Winningandlosingallcomedowntothenumbers.

True.Wecanstillusethenumberstomeasureoursuccessandfailure.Butasfarasplanning,draftingandrosterconstruction,it'stimetodivorceourselvesfromthem.So,let'sgetstarted.Iwanttointroduceyoutoyournewmistress.

MeetBABS. TheBroadAssessmentBalanceSheet(BABS)isafantasybaseballrosterconstructionmethodologythatreliesonfourbasicconcepts:

1.Playerskillneedstobeexpressedinbroadtermsbecausewecan’tprojectstatisticswithenoughprecisionforthemtobeuseful.

2.Aplayer'sperformanceisacombinationofskillandrisk.Theseneedtobeevaluatedseparately,asinabalancesheet(likeassetsandliabilities).

3.Playerswithcomparableprofilescanbegroupedtogetherandwilllikelyperformwithinarangeofsimilaroutcomes.Themarketplacedetermineshowyoudraftplayerswithinagivengroup.

4.BABSsetsrostergoalstomaximizeyourassetsandminimizeyourliabilities.Sheprovidesaskillsandriskbudget.

ThecompleteBABSsystem,includingallthetoolsyouneed,isavailablewithmembershiptoRonShandler.com.

Aone-yearmembershipisjust$19.95,andincludesallthis:

1.TheBABSProject:UncoveringtheTruthAboutWinningatFantasyBaseball.ThisPDFeBookisthecoreoftheBroadAssessmentBalanceSheet.Itmaychangeyourwayofthinkingbutthesepeopleseemtothinkit'sworthit.

2.BABSProjectupdatesandongoinganalysis:Theebookiswhereitstartsbutthereisconstanttweakingandstreamlining.Andthistimeofyear,you'llget2-3articlesperweekthatdigevendeeper.

3.BABSratings,assetgrouprankingsandcheatsheetsfor2018drafts:Thefoundationofyourdraftefforts,updatedregularlythroughtheendofMarch.

4.CustomreportsfromtheBABSDatabase:IfyouareinanAL/NL-onlyleague,wantlistssortedalphabetically,byADPorposition,thedatabasecandoit.

5.Ron’sinsights,includingallhisESPNInsidercolumns:RonwritesatRonShandler.com,ofcourse,buthealsowritesforESPN.comintheirpremiumInsiderarea.Membershipallowsyoutoreadthosearticles.

6.Members-onlymessageboards:Agrowingcommunityoffantasyleaguers,analystsandBABSians.Askquestions,offerinsights,vent-it'syourneighborhood.

7.BABSratingsforRotoLabsoftware:ThedemandforaBABSdraftapplicationhasreachedthebestsoftwareonthemarket.Onceyoutryit,you'llnevergoback.(Softwaresoldseparately.)

8.BABSminorleagueratings:Toprovideadditionalinsightintothedeeperendsoftheplayerpool,BABSratesnearlyeveryDouble-AandTriple-Aplayerfrom2017.

9.BABSBaseballleagues:ThereisanewfantasyformatthatincorporatesthebestpartsofBABSwhilekeepingapulseonthechangingbaseballenvironment.ThetemplateisalreadysetupforyouatOnRoto.com.

10.Commentary,polls,contestsandmore:Morewaystokeepyouinvolved!

Formoreinformation,andtojoin,goto

RonShandler.com/register39