THANK YOU!THANK YOU!Aviation would not be as safe as  it is today without your support.

MurphyMurphy’’s Laws of Combats Laws of Combat

•• If the enemy is in rangeIf the enemy is in range…… so are you.so are you.•• Tracers work both ways.Tracers work both ways.•• Incoming has the rightIncoming has the right--ofof--way.way.•• Never draw fireNever draw fire…… it irritates those around you.it irritates those around you.•• When in doubtWhen in doubt…… empty the magazine.empty the magazine.•• There is always a wayThere is always a way…… the easy way is mined.the easy way is mined.•• If your attack is going well, itIf your attack is going well, it’’s an ambushs an ambush……•• Friendly fireFriendly fire…… isnisn’’t. Suppressive firet. Suppressive fire…… doesndoesn’’t.t.•• If you are short of everything but the enemy, youIf you are short of everything but the enemy, you’’re in re in

combat zone.combat zone.•• Teamwork is essentialTeamwork is essential…… gives them others to shoot at.gives them others to shoot at.•• Anything you, including nothing, can get you shot...Anything you, including nothing, can get you shot...

Name this Name this ““Blind FlyerBlind Flyer…”…”

Year?Year?

Aerodrome?Aerodrome?

Type Aircraft?Type Aircraft?

Continuous Descent Continuous Descent ProceduresProcedures

andand……

““say again, all after say again, all after RNP?RNP?…”…”

The Flying Environment of The Flying Environment of TodayToday’’s Line Pilots Line Pilot

•• Complex aircraft and airspaceComplex aircraft and airspace•• Intense scrutinyIntense scrutiny•• Terrorism, war, pestilenceTerrorism, war, pestilence•• Competition, economics, bankruptcy Competition, economics, bankruptcy •• Productivity, work rules, negotiationsProductivity, work rules, negotiations•• ……and everyday flyinand everyday flyin’’ stuff: thunderstorms, stuff: thunderstorms,

terrain, traffic, turbulence, time, MEL, terrain, traffic, turbulence, time, MEL, passengers, etcpassengers, etc……

The The BIGBIG IssuesIssues((……besides the economy)besides the economy)

••CapacityCapacity••EfficiencyEfficiency••SafetySafety

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Hull loss accidentsper year*

Hull loss accident rate*[Accidents per million departures]

Airplanes in service32,495

2021

Departures, Millions*

17,357

2002

Boeing 11,693

Business as usual

Reductions possible with continued Industry effort

Why We Must Continuously ImproveWhy We Must Continuously ImproveAviation Safety and Reduce RiskAviation Safety and Reduce Risk

*Accident and Departure data through 31 December 20025-6-03 FT-004Wc

Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of FlightAccidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of FlightHull Loss and/or Fatal Accidents Hull Loss and/or Fatal Accidents -- Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet -- 1993 1993 -- 20022002

Hull loss and/or fatal accidents Onboard fatalities

Taxi, load,parked

Takeoff Initialclimb

Climb

Fatalities

Cruise Descent Initialapproach

Finalapproach

Landing

124

23

Hulllossand/orfatalaccidents

35212

17

1,619

561

14 10 12

1,110

16

Initialapproach

5%

13%

12%

Descent

5%

14%

11%

Finalapproach

7%

17%

3%

Percentage of accidents/fatalities

Takeoff

11%

5%

1%

Initialclimb

5%

14%

1%

Landing

47%

3%

1%

Taxi,load,

parked

5%

0

Climb(flaps up)

8%

25%

14%

Cruise

6%

9%

57%

16% 54%

20% 20%

Accidents

Fatalities

Initialapproach

fix

Exposure = percentage of flight timebased on flight duration of 1.5 hours

Distribution of accidents and fatalities

Finalapproach

fix

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

500

1000

1500

2000

922 910

102

165

172002 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, MAY 2003

Fatalities

818

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Hull loss Hull loss accidentsaccidentsper year*per year*

Hull loss accident rate*[Accidents per million departures]

Airplanes in service32,495

2021

Departures, Millions*

17,357

2002

Boeing 11,693

Business as usual

Reductions possible with continued Industry effort

The Airplane and Passenger Numbers The Airplane and Passenger Numbers Keep IncreasingKeep Increasing……!!

*Accident and Departure data through 31 December 20025-6-03 FT-004Wc

Current InitiativesCurrent Initiatives

•• Safer SkiesSafer Skies’’ CAST CAST •• Operational Evolution Plan (OEP)Operational Evolution Plan (OEP)•• RNP RoadmapRNP Roadmap•• FAAFAA’’s s ““Flight Plan 2004Flight Plan 2004--20082008””•• FAAFAA’’s National Flight Plan to 2025s National Flight Plan to 2025•• JAAJAA’’s Navigation Strategy for s Navigation Strategy for

ECACECAC

AWO Working GroupsAWO Working Groups

•• ATA FMS TFATA FMS TF•• TARATARA•• AWOSGAWOSG•• AWOGAWOG

•• OCPOCP•• OPSPOPSP•• TAOARC/JSCTAOARC/JSC•• AWOHWGAWOHWG

CASTCAST’’s Six Critical Areass Six Critical Areas

•• Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT)Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT)•• Approach and Landing AccidentsApproach and Landing Accidents•• Runway IncursionsRunway Incursions•• WeatherWeather•• Loss of Control In FlightLoss of Control In Flight•• Uncontained Engine FailuresUncontained Engine Failures

Approach and Landing OperationsApproach and Landing Operations

…… the art of returning safely to the the art of returning safely to the planetplanet’’s surfaces surface……

54% of the accidents and 20% of the fatalities occur 54% of the accidents and 20% of the fatalities occur during the last 4%during the last 4%…… 55--8 miles8 miles…… of the flight.of the flight.

NonNon--precision approaches and unprecision approaches and un--stabilized flight are stabilized flight are the greatest hazards.the greatest hazards.

DiveDive’’nn’’Drive NonDrive Non--precision approaches are five times precision approaches are five times more dangerous than Precision approaches.more dangerous than Precision approaches.

Circling Approaches are even more dangerous yet.Circling Approaches are even more dangerous yet.

Approach and Landing Approach and Landing Safety InterventionsSafety Interventions

•• Continuous Descent ProceduresContinuous Descent Procedures•• Stabilized Approach TechniquesStabilized Approach Techniques•• RNAV and RNPRNAV and RNP--RNAV ApproachesRNAV Approaches

Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of FlightAccidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of FlightHull Loss and/or Fatal Accidents Hull Loss and/or Fatal Accidents -- Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet -- 1993 1993 -- 20022002

Hull loss and/or fatal accidents Onboard fatalities

Taxi, load,parked

Takeoff Initialclimb

Climb

Fatalities

Cruise Descent Initialapproach

Finalapproach

Landing

124

23

Hulllossand/orfatalaccidents

35212

17

1,619

561

14 10 12

1,110

16

Initialapproach

5%

13%

12%

Descent

5%

14%

11%

Finalapproach

7%

17%

3%

Percentage of accidents/fatalities

Takeoff

11%

5%

1%

Initialclimb

5%

14%

1%

Landing

47%

3%

1%

Taxi,load,

parked

5%

0

Climb(flaps up)

8%

25%

14%

Cruise

6%

9%

57%

16% 54%

20% 20%

Accidents

Fatalities

Initialapproach

fix

Exposure = percentage of flight timebased on flight duration of 1.5 hours

Distribution of accidents and fatalities

Finalapproach

fix

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

500

1000

1500

2000

922 910

102

165

172002 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, MAY 2003

Fatalities

818

Continuous Descent Continuous Descent ProceduresProcedures

•• Industry state changeIndustry state change…… A paradigm A paradigm shift for most US operatorsshift for most US operators

•• FSF ALAR Tool KitFSF ALAR Tool Kit•• More utilization of onboard flight More utilization of onboard flight

guidance and navigation systemsguidance and navigation systems•• Procedure used vs. aircraft control Procedure used vs. aircraft control •• Requirement for minima harmonizationRequirement for minima harmonization

Continuous Descent Vs.Continuous Descent Vs.““Dive and DriveDive and Drive””

Continuous Descent ProceduresContinuous Descent Procedures((““NonNon””--precision Approaches)precision Approaches)

•• Vertical SpeedVertical Speed•• VNAVVNAV•• Flight Path AngleFlight Path Angle•• With or Without AutopilotWith or Without Autopilot•• Path to/from thresholdPath to/from threshold

andand…… to facilitate continuous to facilitate continuous descent trainingdescent training……

Stabilized ApproachStabilized Approach•• Energy stateEnergy state•• ConfigurationConfiguration•• Flight path control and Flight path control and

handlinghandling

Stabilized ApproachStabilized Approach

•• 8400.10 and AC 1208400.10 and AC 120--7171•• FOQA/LOSA and line check FOQA/LOSA and line check

evidenceevidence•• How vs. What you flyHow vs. What you fly•• 1000 ft and 500 ft 1000 ft and 500 ft ““gatesgates””•• Improved viewing anglesImproved viewing angles•• Harmonized minima authorizedHarmonized minima authorized

MurphyMurphy’’s Laws of Combats Laws of Combat(Fighter Pilot Supplement)(Fighter Pilot Supplement)

•• There is no such thing as There is no such thing as ““excess thrustexcess thrust”…”…•• Speed is life...Speed is life...•• ROE work right up to ROE work right up to ““fights onfights on…”…”•• The The ““fights onfights on”” when you leave the chockswhen you leave the chocks……•• The fights not over The fights not over ‘‘til youtil you’’re parked in the re parked in the

chockschocks……* * •• If youIf you’’re short of everything but the enemy, re short of everything but the enemy,

youyou’’re in combat zone.re in combat zone.•• Teamwork is essentialTeamwork is essential…… gives them others to gives them others to

shoot at.shoot at.•• Earth has a PEarth has a P--subsub--K of 99.99999K of 99.99999

RNAV and RNP RNAVRNAV and RNP RNAV

oror…”…”say all after say all after ‘‘RNAV RNAV ANDAND’’…”…”

BlakeyBlakey’’s Rule of Engagement s Rule of Engagement for PBS* for PBS*

(Line Pilot Supplement)(Line Pilot Supplement)

“We  at  the  FAA  are  committed  to  moving  to  a *performance‐based  system  that  produces  the  highest levels of safety and security.”

Hon. Marion Blakey, Administrator

RNAV and RNPRNAV and RNP--RNAVRNAV

The aviation community needs to integrate The aviation community needs to integrate viable and affordable solutions to move viable and affordable solutions to move towards a performance based NAS; one based towards a performance based NAS; one based on the highest safety and security performance on the highest safety and security performance goals with measurable and validated capacity, goals with measurable and validated capacity, efficiency and environmental performance efficiency and environmental performance expectations.expectations.

RNAV and RNPRNAV and RNP--RNAVRNAVWhatWhat’’s in it for aviators and passengers??s in it for aviators and passengers??

Defined precision 3D and 4D flight paths.Defined precision 3D and 4D flight paths.andand……

for D.R. Smith and the Alaska Airlines RNP for D.R. Smith and the Alaska Airlines RNP ““Skunk WorksSkunk Works”” ElvesElves…… and the rest of the and the rest of the

traveling public exposed to this risktraveling public exposed to this risk……The end of Circling ApproachesThe end of Circling Approaches

From the FAA RNP Roadmap:From the FAA RNP Roadmap:

““Increasingly, the aviation community is defining Increasingly, the aviation community is defining concepts and applications based on performance concepts and applications based on performance standards and metrics, rather than specific technologies standards and metrics, rather than specific technologies and equipage configurations. Among these and equipage configurations. Among these performanceperformance--based concepts are:based concepts are:-- Area navigation (RNAV),Area navigation (RNAV),-- Required Navigation Performance (RNP),Required Navigation Performance (RNP),-- Required Communication Performance (RCP),Required Communication Performance (RCP),-- Required Surveillance Performance (RSP).Required Surveillance Performance (RSP).””

From the FAA RNP Roadmap:From the FAA RNP Roadmap:

““These concepts define specified levels of performance, These concepts define specified levels of performance, functionality and capability as agreedfunctionality and capability as agreed--upon standards. upon standards.

RCP and RSP are still emerging concepts in the RCP and RSP are still emerging concepts in the developmental stages.developmental stages.

On the other hand, the aviation community is broadly On the other hand, the aviation community is broadly adopting RNAV and RNP.adopting RNAV and RNP.

Other key components in performanceOther key components in performance--based navigation based navigation are procedures and airspace redesign.are procedures and airspace redesign.””

RNP RoadmapRNP RoadmapKey Strategies and IncentivesKey Strategies and Incentives

•• Near Term Near Term (03(03--05)05)–– Develop tailored proceduresDevelop tailored procedures–– Leverage user capabilities for public proceduresLeverage user capabilities for public procedures–– Implement in phases new benefits, new requirementsImplement in phases new benefits, new requirements–– Integrate with related programs; e.g., OEP, Flt. PlanIntegrate with related programs; e.g., OEP, Flt. Plan

•• Mid Term Mid Term (05(05--10)10)–– Implement public use RNP procedures in all domainsImplement public use RNP procedures in all domains–– Develop RNP concepts for the long termDevelop RNP concepts for the long term–– Harmonize, evaluate, and gain industry consensus for Harmonize, evaluate, and gain industry consensus for

equipage mandates?equipage mandates?•• Long Term Long Term (10+)(10+)

–– FAA NAVAID strategyFAA NAVAID strategy–– Harmonize implementation and consider mandates Harmonize implementation and consider mandates

RNAV and RNPRNAV and RNP--RNAVRNAV

•• Most transport aircraft RNAV capable Most transport aircraft RNAV capable •• RNP A/C groupings TBD by TAOARCRNP A/C groupings TBD by TAOARC•• RNAV paths for DPRNAV paths for DP’’s, STARs, STAR’’s, IAPs, IAP’’ss•• A/C AFM RNP statementsA/C AFM RNP statements•• RNAV and RNP RNAV CriteriaRNAV and RNP RNAV Criteria•• FAA/JAA/EASA commitments to RNPFAA/JAA/EASA commitments to RNP

TAOARC TASK LISTTAOARC TASK LIST•• RNP Approach OpsRNP Approach Ops•• Navigation DataNavigation Data•• Terminology and Terminology and

DefinitionsDefinitions•• Maximize use of Maximize use of

current a/c current a/c capabilitiescapabilities

•• GNSS BenefitsGNSS Benefits

•• HarmonizationHarmonization•• Procedure Procedure

DevelopmentDevelopment•• RNP RNP

ImplementationImplementation•• Document Review Document Review

RequirementsRequirements•• Enroute IssuesEnroute Issues

ALPA Air Safety ProjectsALPA Air Safety Projectsa partial list of ADO and NASMOD projectsa partial list of ADO and NASMOD projects……

•• LROPSLROPS•• Ops SpecsOps Specs•• FTHWGFTHWG•• FGSHWGFGSHWG•• A/C Cert ProcessA/C Cert Process•• InIn--Flight IcingFlight Icing•• Wake Vortex SeparationWake Vortex Separation•• EFBEFB•• Safe Flight 21Safe Flight 21•• ADSADS--BB•• Nexcom Digital RadioNexcom Digital Radio

•• RTCA SCRTCA SC--181181•• RNP Dev. and Imp.RNP Dev. and Imp.•• CFIT/ALAR Action Grp.CFIT/ALAR Action Grp.•• SAE GSAE G--1010•• SAE SSAE S--77•• MMELMMEL•• CARACCARAC’’s VI/VIIs VI/VII•• CPDLCCPDLC•• Free FlightFree Flight•• TAOARC/JSCTAOARC/JSC•• AWOHWGAWOHWG

RNAV and RNPRNAV and RNP--RNAV BustersRNAV BustersWho YaWho Ya’’ gonna callgonna call……? besides ? besides ‘‘The GreekThe Greek’’....

•• Capt. Pedro Rivas Capt. Pedro Rivas •• Capt. D.R. SmithCapt. D.R. Smith•• Bill PhaneufBill Phaneuf•• Kevin ComstockKevin Comstock•• Chris BaumChris Baum•• Joe BrackenJoe Bracken

•• Capt. Brian TownsendCapt. Brian Townsend•• Capt. Simon LawrenceCapt. Simon Lawrence•• Karl KaserKarl Kaser•• Capt. Larry NewmanCapt. Larry Newman•• Ralph Conrad Ralph Conrad •• Capt. Rob Capt. Rob ““RashidRashid”” WayneWayne

NAS Modernization BustersNAS Modernization BustersWho YaWho Ya’’ gonna callgonna call……? besides ? besides ““OlOl’’ RipRip””......

•• Safe Flight 21Safe Flight 21-- Chris Anderson, Mark CatoChris Anderson, Mark Cato•• ADSADS--BB-- Capt. Rip Torn, Ed RafaczCapt. Rip Torn, Ed Rafacz•• NEXCOM Digital RadioNEXCOM Digital Radio-- Madison WaltonMadison Walton•• Operational Evolution PlanOperational Evolution Plan-- Al WestromAl Westrom•• Boeing Working Together TeamBoeing Working Together Team-- Bob LochryBob Lochry•• CPDLCCPDLC-- Captain Alan CampbellCaptain Alan Campbell•• RNPRNP-- RNP Project teamRNP Project team•• Free FlightFree Flight-- Ed Bearden, Jack McCormick, Mark CatoEd Bearden, Jack McCormick, Mark Cato•• JPO Industry ActivitiesJPO Industry Activities-- Ed Bearden, Mark CatoEd Bearden, Mark Cato

In Summary:In Summary:•• Airlines must optimize the use of existing Airlines must optimize the use of existing

equipment.equipment.•• Industry and Authorities must collaborate Industry and Authorities must collaborate

extensively and effectively.extensively and effectively.•• Everyone must strive to be creative and Everyone must strive to be creative and

innovative.innovative.•• The Risk must be reduced incrementally The Risk must be reduced incrementally

becausebecause……

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Hull loss Hull loss accidentsaccidentsper year*per year*

Hull loss accident rate*[Accidents per million departures]

Airplanes in service32,495

2021

Departures, Millions*

17,357

2002

Boeing 11,693

Business as usual

Reductions possible with continued Industry effort

The Airplane and Passenger Numbers Keep Increasing…!

*Accident and Departure data through 31 December 20025-6-03 FT-004Wc

Questions?Questions?

64

More Questions ?More Questions ?More Questions ?More Questions ?

ANSWERS?ANSWERS?

Name this Name this ““Blind FlyerBlind Flyer…”…”

Year?Year?

Aerodrome?Aerodrome?

Type Aircraft?Type Aircraft?

Name this Name this ““Blind FlyerBlind Flyer…”…”

(Gen.) Jimmy Doolittle(Gen.) Jimmy Doolittle

Blind Flying Experiment, Blind Flying Experiment, Sept. 24, 1929Sept. 24, 1929

Mitchell Field, Long IslandMitchell Field, Long Island

Consolidated NYConsolidated NY--22

Sense of Humor Required:Sense of Humor Required:

“Common Sense… Is NOT very Common…”Voltaire, circa 1740

Thank YouThank YouThank You………PrecisionPrecisionPrecision………Counts!Counts!Counts!

ted.demosthenes@alpa.org…Aspen 6651 (M)408-910-7712