32,040.9 c (e) conv1549517477.pdf · 2019. 2. 7. · 07 february, 2019 bottom-line: trend of mcx...

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32,000

07 February, 2019

Bottom-Line: Trend of MCX Gold is short term negative, Silver prices CAN MOVE sideways to negative, MCX Copper the trend remains positive and trend for Crude is range bound.

MCX Gold Continuous Daily chart:

GOLD-1M - Daily 06-02-2019 Open 33360, Hi 33445, Lo 33292, Close 33327 (0.3%) EMA(Close,50)

wave 3 is corrective as it is part of Ending Diagonal

34,000

33,327

33,000

b)

(d)

(f)

(i

c)

a

b

c e g

x

a f

b d

32,040.9

31,000

30,000

(ii) 29,000

(c)

(e)

(g) 2

28,000

27,000

26,000

2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019

GOLD-1M - RSI(14) = 73.10 73.1004

70

30

2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019

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-MCX Gold April 60 min chart:

M_GOLD-APR (33,285.00, 33,285.00, 33,151.00, 33,151.00, -151.00)

g

(c)

(a)

33800

33700

33600

33500

33400

33300

33200

33100

33000

32900

32800

32700

32600

32500

32400

32300

32200

(a)

(b)

x

32100

32000

31900

31800

31700

31600

31500

31400

31300

31200

31100

31000

80

70

60

50

40

30

18 24 31 7 14 21 28 4

2018 2019 February

Wave analysis:

As shown on daily chart, post making a high near 33800 levels prices witnessed a strong selling pressure and are now moving in range. Currently second set of correction is ongoing within wave iii. However, its 50-days EMA is providing support on downside keeping the tone positive.

As shown on hourly chart, wave (b) is ongoing on downside. Prices have broken its support placed near 33200 levels and drifted towards lower levels of 33150 levels. Also its 50-periods EMA which was acting as support is now providing resistance on upside indicating change in its existing trend. So for now as long as 33300 is intact on upside sideways to negative action can be expected in coming sessions.

In short, trend of MCX Gold is short term negative and move towards 33000 or lower levels can be expected. It is advisable to maintain proper resistance near 33300 levels to capture this downmove in form of wave b.

Relative Strength Index (25.3935)




40,00

MCX Silver continuous daily chart:

SILVER-1M - Daily 06-02-2019 Open 40437, Hi 40437, Lo 40085, Close 40146 (-0.5%) EMA(Close,20)

(x)

(b)

45,000

44,000

43,000

(a)

(c)

(d)

(f)

(g)

(x)

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

(x)

b

(g)

42,000

41,000

40,146 0

39,767.7

39,000

38,000

37,000

(e)

a

c (a)

36,000

35,000

34,000

SILVER-1M - RSI(14) = 60.73 70

60.7251

30

Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019




Silver Mar 60 mins chart:

x

a

b

M_SILVER-MAR (40,031.00, 40,056.00, 40,002.00, 40,011.00, -101.00)

a

e

c

g

d

f x

41000

40900

40800

40700

40600

40500

40400

40300

40200

40100

40000

39900

39800

39700

39600

39500

39400

39300

39200

39100

39000

38900

38800

38700

38600

38500

38400

38300

38200

38100

38000

37900

37800

37700

37600

37500

37400

37300

37200

37100

37000

36900


80

70

60

50

40

30

20

19 24 31 7 14 21 28 4 2018 2019 February

Wave analysis

In the previous update for Silver we mentioned, “a decisive break below 40200 can take prices lower towards 40000." Prices moved in a similar manner and made a low near 40080 levels.

As shown on the daily chart, prices closed below the prior bars indicating that the trend might have reversed on the downside. A close below 40000 will further infuse selling pressure.

As shown on the hourly chart, prices have completed wave a on the upside and are moving in the next leg on the downside in the form of wave b. Also the Exponential Moving Average which was acting as a support is now providing resistance on the upside. Also prices have managed to come near a lower end of the band so a decisive break below 40000 will further infuse selling pressure taking prices lower towards 39750 levels.

In short trend for Silver remains sideways to negative and a move towards 39750 can be expected as long as 40200 remains intact on the upside over the short term.




a

MCX Crude daily chart:

CRUDEOIL-1M - Daily 06-02-2019 Open 3846, Hi 3893, Lo 3796, Close 3881 (0.9%) EMA(Close,20)

X

(g) c 100.0%

6,000

5,500

(e) a

(g)

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

bx bd b

c ac e

(f)

61.8%

50.0%

38.2%

5,000

4,500

4,000 3,881

(b)

(c)

(e) Y

(a)

(c)

(b)

(e)

(d)

(f)

(x)

0.0% a

3,774.22

3,500

3,000

2,500

Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019

CRUDEOIL-1M - RSI(14) = 57.66

70

57.6566

30

Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019




MCX Crude Feb 60 min chart:

a

a

M_CRUDEOIL-FEB (3,875.00, 3,876.00, 3,867.00, 3,869.00, -7.00)

a

c

x b

a b

c

x

b

c

4100

4050

4000

3950

3900

3850

3800

3750

3700

3650

3600

3550

3500

3450

3400

3350

3300

3250

3200

3150

3100

3050

3000

2950

2900


50

19 24 31 7 14 21 28 4 2018 2019 February

Wave analysis:

In previous update for Crude we mentioned, "A decisive break below 3850 can take prices lower towards 3800" BANG ON ! Prices moved precisely as expected and made a low near 3796 levels.

As shown on the hourly chart, prices are moving in a range since past few sessions and have failed to show any clear breakout. In the previous session also prices moved lower for the first half of the session however post that some buying witnessed a prices closed within range. We are showing Bollinger Bands on the chart and prices are currently near the upper end of the range. A decisive break above 3900 can take prices higher towards 3950 whereas on the downside a break below 3840 can take prices towards the lower end of the range.

In short, trend for Crude is range bound between 3800 and 3900. A directional breakout is now required for a clear trend to emerge. Until then buying near the support and selling near the resistance strategy can be adopted.




45

43

70

MCX Copper Daily chart:

COPPER-1M - Daily 06-02-2019 Open 447.3, Hi 451.35, Lo 446.55, Close 449.15 (0.7%)

iii g

500

490

e

a b

a x

b

c x

d f y

a i of v

c c

x

b

480

470

460

449.15 0

440

429.48 0

420

iv

a ii of v

c w

410

400

390

2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019

COPPER-1M - RSI(14) = 68.49 68.4854

30

2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019




MCX Copper Feb 60 mins chart:

a

b

c

M_COPPER-FEB (448.90, 448.90, 448.00, 448.25, -0.95)

d

e

ii of v

a

b

455

450

445

440

435

430

425

420

415

410

405

400

395


80

70

60

50

40

30

20

24 31 7 14 21 28 4 2019 February

Waves Analysis:

MCX Copper has been moving towards higher levels and managing protect its previous bars low from past 9 consecutive days indicating momentum is building on upside.

As shown in the hourly chart, prices are moving precisely within its blue channel and are now hovering over the support trendline. Break of which will provide first indication of change in trend. However as long as this support trendline is intact on downside move towards channel resistance can be expected. Also, its 50-periods EMA is providing support of downside keeping the tone [positive.

In short, for Copper trend is positive. Move towards 455 can be expected. For this outlook to remain valid 443 must be intact on downside.




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32,040.9 c (e) conv1549517477.pdf · 2019. 2. 7. · 07 february, 2019 bottom-line: trend of mcx...

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