3 aiee energy · 2018 outlook for energy: a view to 2040 the outlook for energy includes exxon...

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2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2017. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

3rd AIEE Energy Symposium

Marco FalconeDecember 11, 2018

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Global trends continue to evolve

+1.7 billionpeople

2xGDP

+25%demand

+10%CO2 emissions

-45%CO2 intensity

2016

Global middle class

Billion people

Latin America

Europe

Asia Pacific

North America

Source: The Brookings Institution

Africa/Middle East

2040

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GDP

Trillion 2010$

OECD

Non-OECD

Non-OECD leads economic expansion

GDP growth

Trillion 2010$

Europe

United States

China

Other AP

Africa

India

1.9% AAGR

4.1% AAGR

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2018 Outlook for Energy

DemandGlobal energy demand will continue to rise through 2040,

reflecting its fundamental link to expanding prosperity and

better living standards for a growing population worldwide.

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Global efficiency limits demand growthEnergy demand

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

Energy savings

China

India

Other AP Non-OECD

Rest of World

Share of primary energy demand by region

Share of Quadrillion BTUs

United States

Other OECD

China

India

Other Non-OECD

Europe OECD

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Energy demand varies by sector

Primary energy demand by sector

Quadrillion BTUs

'16

'25

'40

Other renewables

Biomass

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

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SupplyWhat resources will be available to meet the world’s

increasing demand for more energy?

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Liquids demands driven by transportation & chemicals

MBDOE

By Region and Sector

North America

Latin America

Europe Russia/Caspian

Africa Middle East

Asia Pacific

Light-duty transportation

Chemicals

Other

'16'25 '40

Commercial transportation

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North America

Latin America

Europe Russia/Caspian

Africa Middle East

Asia Pacific

'16 '40 '25

Net exports Net imports

Natural Gas Liquids

Other / Biofuels

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

Deepwater

Conventional Crude & Condensate

Demand

Liquids supply highlights regional diversity

MBDOE

By region and sector

.

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Gas supply highlights regional diversity

Gas demand by supply type

BCFD

Local unconventional production

Local conventional production

Net imports

Pipeline imports

Net exports

North America

Latin America

Africa Europe Russia/Caspian

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Total production

LNG imports

Share of growth 2016-2040 Supply type Production

.

'16 '40 '25 '00

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Pursuing a 2oC pathwayAdvancing the application of cost-effective technology solutions

around the world will likely be critical to pursue a 2oC pathway

while helping keep energy reliable and affordable for an

expanding population.

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Assessed 2oC Scenarios: 2040 Global energy demand

2040 Global demand by model and energy type

Exajoules

Oil w/ CCS

Oil

Gas w/ CCS

Gas

Coal w/ CCS

CoalNuclearBioenergy w/ CCS

Bioenergy

Non-bio renewables

Based on EMF27 full technology / 450 ppm scenarios (Assessed 2oC Scenarios)EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB

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Significant investments needed to meet demand

Excludes biofuels

Global liquids supplyestimatesMBDOE

Global gas supply estimates

BCFD

Estimated natural

decline in the absence of

further investment

Existing supplies

Existing supplies

2000

Average demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios*

2000

High demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios

Low demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios

Average demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios*

Outlook demand

Outlook demand

*2oC scenarios based on EMF 27 full technology / 450 ppm cases targeting a 2oC pathway (Assessed 2oC Scenarios)

*2oC scenarios based on EMF 27 full technology / 450 ppm cases targeting a 2oC pathway (Assessed 2oC Scenarios)

High demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios

Low demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios

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Technology key to reducing societal costs of 2oC pathway

Existing Advances Breakthrough

Costs borne by society to lower GHG

emissions

(e.g. natural gas, wind, solar)

(e.g. negative emissions, storage,CCS, advanced biofuels)

Policy / Technology matrix is illustrative only

Hypothetical ~2oC policy/ technology frontier

Technology advancement

Low policycosts

High policycosts

Technology advances likely to reduce costs of policies on society

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Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix

Global Mix of Fuels

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

Unconventional Gas

Deepwater, Oil Sands, Tight Oil

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