264 conrad guettler presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Brazil, India and South Korea: Markets and Opportunities
29 May 2008
SSP 2C: Working in Global Markets
Conrad Guettler
Consultant and Wolfson College Cambridge
Introduction and brief outline
Presentation based on journals market reports prepared for The
Publishers Association of the UK but will be broader
Information on education and research systems, on funding and
publishing
Brazil, India and South Korea: noteworthy aspects for each
country
Introduction - 2
To set the scene, some summary figures
Brazil India South Korea USA
Area 8.5m 3.3m 98,500 9.8m
(Sq km)
Population 189m 1.1bn 49m 304m
GDP growth 4.5% 8.5% 4.9% 2.2%
Education 4.4% 3.6% 4.6% 5.3%
(% of GDP)
Students in HE 4.5m 11.8m 3.2m 17.5m
Brazil: General
8.5m sq km; federal republic
population of 189m; main languages Portuguese, Spanish,
English
annual GDP growth 3.0-4.5%
Southeast contributes 60% of GDP
A promising future:– Growing economy
– Government committed to education and research
Brazil: Education & Research
Net enrolment of 95% in primary, almost 80% in secondary education:– total of 25m pupils of whom 11% attend private schools
Net enrolment of 12% in tertiary (higher) education (HE): – 4.5m students of whom 70% are enrolled in private universities (e.g. PUCs) and
other institutions
564,000 students graduated in 2005: 61% in humanities and social sciences,
26% in education, 13% in science & technology
Some 124,000 students on Masters and PhD courses
Public (federal) universities are highly regarded and carry out most research
Brazil: Higher Education
2,270 HE institutions but only about 11% of these are publicly funded:
Public Private
Universities 92 86
University centres 4 115
Polytechnics (faculdades & 86 1,679
Escuolas)
CeT/FaT 66 142
Total 248 2,022
Brazil: Higher Education
Ministry of Education (MEC) holds the federal education budget (4.4% of GDP). – CAPES is the Federal agency that supports and evaluates all graduate
programmes; it also manages the purchasing consortium for e-resources– State agencies (e.g. FAPESP) important for education and research support
Top Universities (all federal or state universities): University of Sao Paulo, University of Campinas, UFRJ, UNESP, UFMG, UFRGS
Priorities for the future: – Expansion of federal universities– To double output of PhDs by 2010 and to increase Masters degrees – expand FaTs in Sao Paulo state– Priorities: engineering, computer science, agricultural sciences, life sciences
Brazil: Research
Ministry of Science & Technology (MCT) responsible for most
R&D spending (about 1.0% of GDP)– The Brazilian National Research Council (CNPq) and other agencies
(FINEP etc)
CNPq funded 90,000 researchers in 2006; research grants were
42% in life sciences, 40% in natural sciences and 18%
humanities & social sciences
Brazil contributes 2% of the world’s scientific papers (50% of
the Latin American total): ranked 15th worldwide by ISI
Brazil: Research - 2
President Lula da Silva announced a US$28bn package for
S&T in November 2007:– to increase R&D share from 1.0% to1.5% of GDP
– incentives for the private sector to invest in research projects
– increased support for postgraduate qualifications
Research-intensive companies: – Petrobras (oil)
– Vale (mining and minerals)
– Embraer (aircraft)
– Embrapa (agribusiness)
Brazil: Book Publishing
Brazilian Book Chamber (CBL) is the trade association; compiles good statistics; e.g. in 2006– First editions 20,000– New editions & reprints 26,000
Book sales estimate: US$990m of which Schoolbooks account for 41%, General for 29%, STM & Professional for 19% and Religious titles 11%
International publishers with strong local presence:– Elsevier (Campus), Pearson, Thompson (Pioneira), McGraw-Hill– Macmilland, OUP and CUP for ELT
Most textbooks and academic titles published in Portuguese– Photocopying a concern for publishers of English language texts
Brazil : Book Publishing - 2
Brazilian University Presses:
– USP, UNESP, Unicamp, other federal universities
– Editora Mackenzie, Editora PUC-Rio, PUC-SP, PUC Minas
Research centres and institutions:
– IMPA (mathematics)
– Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (biomedical)
– Getulio Vargas Foundation (social sciences)
Brazil : Journals Publishing & Consortia
Journals publishing mainly by societies, institutes and UPs
Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO): – 200 Brazilian journals– A further 200 journals from Latin America– Open Access
CAPES portal periodicos (consortium):– over 12,300 journals and databases– 190 member institutions– usage mirrors research intensive universities
COPERE consortium for private institutions
Close consortia contacts with other Latin American countries
Brazil: Journals Publishing - 2
Subscription agents still important
– e.g CAPES prefers to work with them on training etc– PTI, PPT, dotLib, Systems Link; EBSCO
Sales & Marketing services– Accucoms and EmPact
India : General
3.3m sq km; federal republic, 5-year plans
population of 1.1bn– about 70% rural– youth population (15-24yrs) expected to peak in 2011 at 240m
main languages Hindi (30%), English, 14 other national languages
annual GDP growth 6-8%
Characteristics– Growing economy– Steady expansion of higher education– Growing middle class
India: Education
Ministry of Human Resource Development responsible for all education matters
3.6% of GDP spent on education in 2005-6; aim is to reach 6%
Gross enrolment rates:– Primary 85%, secondary 39%, tertiary 9%
220m pupils in state schools, 42m in 50,000 private schools
6,000 new secondary schools planned for 2007-20012
Government targets for enrolment into HE: 15% by 2012 and 22% by 2017
University Grants Commission is the main administration and funding agency for universities
India: Higher Education
Universities as of March 2006 (UGC Annual Report 2005-2006)Central 20
State 216
Deemed 101
Other 18
Total 355
Colleges 18,064 (1,500 engineering and 1,200 management)
16 new universities created in 2004-5, 6 in 2005-6 and 26 in 2006-7
Some universities (62) and many colleges (11,955) are not (yet) recognized by UGC i.e. are ineligible for central funding.
Since 2003 some 50 new engineering and 50 new business management colleges have been opened annually
India: Higher Education - 2
Some Student enrolment figures: – 11.8m students (41% female) including over 800,00 postgraduates – 45% in Faculty of Arts, 21% in Science, 18% in Commerce, 16% in
Professional faculties– 90% of undergraduates and 67% of postgraduates study in Colleges– 91% research students study in universities
annual output: – over 2m graduates with Batchelor degrees – over 500,000 with Masters degrees– almost 18,000 PhDs– about 25,000 graduates of some 240 medical colleges
almost 490,000 teaching staff in HE
India: Higher Education - 3
Some highly ranked universities and institutes:– Universities of Delhi, Hyderabad, Pune; JNU Delhi, Banares
Hindu University
– Indian Institutes of Management (IIM) Ahmedabad, Bangalore
– Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) Delhi, Kaupur, Mumbai
– Indian Institute of Science Bangalore
– Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai
– All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Delhi
– National Law School of India University
India: Higher Education - 4
HE Objectives of the 11th Plan (2007-2012):– 30 new Central Universities, 14 of these aiming at world-class
standards– 370 new degree colleges– 8 new Indian Institutes of Technology– 20 new Indian Institutes of Information Technology– 7 new Indian Institutes of Management– 5 new Indian Institutes of Science Education and Research– 10 new National Institutes of Technology
Specific Indian concern: inclusiveness and equitable access:– reserved places in HE for ‘scheduled castes and tribes’: to be increased from
22.5% to 49.5% of admissions
India: Research
Ministry of Science & Technology (MOST) responsible for some 200
national laboratories. Spend on R&D: 0.8% of GDP (comparable to Brazil)
MOST provides support for publications by professional bodies and
societies through its Department of Science & Technology, e.g.– National Institute of Science Communication and Information Research
(NISCAIR/CSIR) publishes 19 journals. In favour of Open Access
– Most research funding goes to the top 20 universities and institutes
– Centrally funded universities and institutes are much better supported than state ones
Priorities: biotechnology, nanotechnology. pharmaceutical sciences
India ranked 13th worldwide by ISI in terms of number of papers
India: Publishing
Federation of Publishers’ and Booksellers’ Associations in
India (FPBAI)
Federation of Indian Publishers (FIP)
Association of Publishers in India (API, foreign-owned
publishers)– Issues: piracy and photocopying of textbooks
India: Book Publishing
Over 80,000 new titles published in 2004 (26% Hindi, 22% English)
Total book market estimated as US$2.4bn
English Language book market estimated as US$1.25bn– Trade US$500m
– School US$425m
– HE & Professional US$325m
HE books and journals market growing by 10% per annum. Journals
component estimated as worth US$100-140m
All the major international publishers are present in India
Strong Indian college and academic book publishers
India: Publishing and Data Services
Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)– from typesetting to data conversion and online services: some examples
• Scientific Publishing Services, Chennai• Aptara (Techbooks), Delhi• Macmillan India, Bangalore• Newgen, Chennai• Integra Software Services, Pondicherry
– India is also becoming a major print centre for regional editions• Thomson Press India (India Today Publishing Group) claims to be
the largest commercial printer in South Asia
India: Journals Publishing
Sage has an active local journals publishing programme
Springer is now distributing the journals of the Indian
Academy of Science in Bangalore
Medknow Publications publishes over 60 biomedical journals,
all with Open Access to full-text
Indian journals available online are generally Open Access
India : Journals Publishing & Consortia
Subscription agents still important:
– Allied Publishers Subscription Agency
– Globe Publication Pvt.
– Informatics India Ltd
– Universal Subscription Agency Pvt. Ltd. and Global Information System Technology Pvt. Ltd. (GIST)
Two major consortia– INDEST-AICTE (managed by NISCAIR): for all CSIR laboratories,
IITs, IIMs and more recently engineering colleges– Inflibnet (UGC funded): for over 150 universities
South Korea: General
98,500 sq km, strong US influence
population 49m; 25% live in Greater Seoul area
English widely taught in schools
GDP growth 4-5% (13th largest economy in the world)
Major companies Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, LG Electronics, SK
(Energy & Telecom)
Characteristics– National determination to become a leading knowledge-based society– Government committed to education but shrinking student cohort– High broadband penetration
South Korea: Education
Previous Ministry of Education and Human Resource Development and
Ministry of Science & Technology have been merged in to a new Ministry
of Education, Science & Technology. – Kim Doh-Yeon, professor of materials science and engineering at SNU,
appointed as minister on 29 February 2008
2008 Education budget up 13.4%, equal to 19.4% of the national budget– 230 four-year universities with 2.1m students and 54,000 faculty
– 3.5m students in all of HE including junior colleges
– 40% of students studying S&T subjects
– about 9,000 doctorates a year
South Korea: Higher Education
HE allocation up by 27% in 2008 education budget to increase the global competitiveness of universities
– More specialization
Challenge: college-bound age-cohort (18-21 years) will drop– Government reducing student admission quotas
– Imposing mergers on public and private universities
Restructuring of graduate education– Now 35 professional graduate schools of dentistry and medicine
– A new law school system starting in 2008: 25 universities approved to open US-style law schools for applicants with a first degree
South Korea: Higher Education - 2
Brain Korea 21 Phase 2 (2006-2012) – Nurture 10 top research universities– Be in top ten countries in terms of ISI rankings (currently 11th)– Attract more foreign students
Top universities:
Seoul National University, Korea, Yonsei, Hanyang, Ewha Womans, Sungkyunkwan, Kyungbook;
KAIST (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology), Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, POSTECH (Pohang University of Science and Technology)
South Korea: Research
Basic research deemed essential for the country’s long-term development: – 25% of the R&D budget
R&D expenditure now 3.0% of GDP (has steadily increased); 75% from the
private sector
Over 10,000 industrial R&D centres
Korea Research Foundation (KRF) and Korea Science and Engineering
Foundation (KOSEF) are the main agencies for research funding– also support academies, conferences and publications
Over 700 S&T societies
South Korea: Book Publishing
Korean Publishers Association has almost 1,000 members
43,585 new titles publishes in 2005
total publishing turnover was US$2.7bn– children’s books and literature the biggest sectors
strong interest in e-books
Academic sales estimate: US$200m – of which US$75m journals, US$21m databases
South Korea: Journals Publishing
Korean journals are mostly published by societies and
professional bodies, with most content in Korean
Korean language journals available online are generally Open
Access
Springer starting to publish the journals of 8 Korean
engineering and life sciences societies in 2008
South Korea: Journals & Consortia
Korea Education & Research Information Service (KERIS)
– National licences for databases and e-books
Korean Electronic Site Licence Initiative (KESLI)
– Almost 400 libraries participating in National Digital Science Library
– 317 libraries in e-journals consortium
– over 13,400 e-journals licensed
Subscription Agents– EBSCO Korea– E*Public– Geonet F1– Journalpia– Shinwon Datanet (iGroup)
General observations
Some important points
– English language proficiency can be somewhat variable
– A local presence or representation is essential
– Need to establish long-term relationships
– Publishing collaborations are welcome
Note how Exchange rate variations can affect business
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Real/US$ 3.08 2.93 2.43 2.18 1.85
Rupee/US$ 46.6 45.3 44.1 45.3 46.6
Won/US$ 1,192 1,145 1,024 955 929
Conclusion
For the market survey reports
– Contact Mandy Knight at The Publishers Association
For any other queries contact me
Conrad Guettler
Wolfson College
Cambridge CB3 9BB, UK
Thank you!