2050 energy roadmap and the internal gas market lng and
TRANSCRIPT
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2050 Energy Roadmap and
the Internal Gas Market –
LNG and Unconventional
Gas for Europe
Linda DuCharme
Director - Europe, Russia and Caspian
ExxonMobil Gas & Power Marketing
2
Benefits of Natural Gas
Supply Security and
Diversity
Diverse supply available by
pipeline, LNG, and
indigenous unconventional
gas production
Competitiveness
Maximize existing infrastructure; potential
economics of unconventional gas
production
Lower Emissions
Brings immediate reduction in CO2
emissions through replacing coal in
power generation
“Gas will be critical for the transformation of the energy system” - 2050 EU Energy Road Map
3
Europe Gas – Supply Demand Balance
Contract upflex
Other Algeria (Pipe)
Norway (Pipe)
Russia (Pipe)
Indigenous Production
LNG
Demand
Source: WoodMackenize Research (1H 2012 – Gas & Power Tool)
BC
M
4
Europe LNG Supply Potential
Atlantic Supply
ME Supply
Pacific Supply
Net LNG Available to Europe
170 BCM 120 BCM
50 BCM
• Significant volumes of LNG available to Europe 2015 – 2030
• 50 BCM 2015 (~10% Demand) to 170 BCM in 2030 (~ 25% Demand)
Source: WoodMackenize Research (1H 2012 – Gas & Power Tool)
BC
M
5
LNG Supply
Source: IHS CERA
Disclaimer: No portion of this slide may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written CERA consent
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Source: Wood Mackenzie, IEA
European Unconventional Resources
Tight
Shale
CBM
0
2
4
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Europe
TCM
Po
ten
tial
Reco
vera
ble
Un
co
nven
tio
na
l R
eso
urc
e
CBM
Tight
Shale
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Myths & Realities: Carbon Emissions
Life-cycle CO2 emissions from Natural Gas: ~ 50%+ less than coal.
Source: Chart:Carnegie Mellon University (Jiang, et al), Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Marcellus shale gas, Environmental Research Letters (August 5, 2011)
(2) IHS CERA 2011 pg. II-2&II-3
Emission Reduction Benefits of Gas
Coal (existing plants)
Coal (new plants)
Unconventional Gas
Conventional Gas
100% 50%
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Germany Gas to Power Demand
WoodMac (June ‘12)
WoodMac (June ‘11)
WoodMac (Nov ‘11)
2000
2005
2010
20
15
20
20
2025
2030
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
GC
FD
9
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
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Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
• Reduction in U.S. Natural Gas Price
Economic Impacts of Shale Gas
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(1) IHS Global Insight (Dec. 2011), The Economic and Employment Contributions of Shale Gas in the US
(2) The Impact of Shale Gas on the U.S. Economy: CERA; March 2012
• Shale development supported 600,000 U.S. jobs in 2010; 900,000 jobs by 20151
• Likely to result in $1.9 trillion in capital investment into the economy from 2010 to 20352
• Expected to generate nearly $1 trillion in local, state and federal tax revenues over the next 25 years
• Reduced energy prices for residents and small businesses…$930 more per household per year2
• Renaissance in U.S. manufacturing industry: new plants for steel, chemicals etc.
US Henry Hub Gas Price
US Rig Count
$/M
BT
U
Rig
co
un
t
• Produced domestically, 80% of the value created from natural gas extraction would remain in
the country in order to support local communities and state budgets
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Shale Gas: Demonstrate Responsibility
Aquifers
Demonstrate
Responsibility
Water
Ground
Local Area
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Shale Gas: Aquifer Protection
Shale
Multiple layers of steel
casing and cement
Source: Total
• No different from a conventional oil or
gas well, or geothermal well
Source: OGP
Steel casings
5cm cement
• Aquifers protected by several layers of
steel and impermeable cement
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Water Usage: Water Usage
• Typical shale gas well requires
10,000 to 20,000 cubic meters
of water
Shale gas a relatively efficient use of water for energy production
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Water Usage: Water Usage
• Typical shale gas well requires
10,000 to 20,000 cubic meters
of water
Shale gas a relatively efficient use of water for energy production
• Coal mining requires 2 to 4
times more water per unit of
energy
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Water Usage: Water Usage
• Typical shale gas well requires
10,000 to 20,000 cubic meters
of water
Shale gas a relatively efficient use of water for energy production
• Coal mining requires 2 to 4
times more water per unit of
energy
• Certain agriculture products,
such as corn, require
80 to 12,000 times more water
per unit of energy
15
Surface Impact
Source: ENVI Committee Report “Impacts of Shale Gas and Shale Oil
Extraction on the Environment and on Human Health”, June 2011
Old Gas Development from Western US
Modern Marcellus Shale Gas Development
Source: OGP
• Modern horizontal drilling technology enables a
single surface pad location to develop 5 to 10 km2
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Working with Local Communities
• We recognise the potential effects of our activities on the local communities where we operate, primarily:
• Traffic
• Noise
• Visual intrusion
• EM has held numerous community meetings in Germany and Poland to address community concerns and answer questions
• Community acceptability is a key priority
Such involvement of the local community is vital throughout the project
“Info Market”
Source: ExxonMobil
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Natural Gas Key to 2050 Energy Roadmap
Energy security... LNG and potentially shale gas can
improve Europe’s security of supply by
adding important diversity to traditional
supply sources
Lower GHG emissions and
better air quality now… Gas emits up to 60% less GHG than
coal and ~zero NOx, SOx and
particulates
Maximize existing infrastructure Widespread LNG infrastructure in
Europe; European gas-fired power
plants only run about 35% of the time
today