heat roadmap europe 2050
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Heat Roadmap Europe 2050. study for the EU27. Heat Roadmap Europe 2050. Presented by: . Why this study?. the heating and cooling sector has largely been overlooked in all scenarios exploring the energy future towards 2050 . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
by
Aalborg University David ConnollyBrian Vad MathiesenPoul Alberg ØstergaardBernd MöllerSteffen NielsenHenrik Lund
Halmstad UniversityUrban PerssonDaniel NilssonSven Werner
PlanEnergiDaniel Trier
for
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050STUDY FOR THE EU27
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
Heat Roadmap Europe 2050
Presented by:
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050 Why this study?
the heating and cooling sector has largely been overlooked in all scenarios exploring the energy future towards 2050.
The first study focuses on the future European heat and cooling market and its importance in terms of cost-savings, job creation, investments, a smarter energy system
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050 Existing Studies
Existing scenario reports:Fail to provide proper analysis of heating and coolingHave a too low time and geographical resolution to model
the realities of the energy market, especially DHCAcknowledge the importance of DHC until 2030/2030, butAssume high shares of electric heating, low heat
consumption and low shares of DHC by 2050
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
Urban areas (Heating Demands) Power and Heat Generation Waste Management Industrial waste heat potential Geothermal heat Solar Thermalthe study indicates that the
market shares for district heating for buildings can be increased to 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050.
Many Energy Sources
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
Energi System Analyse Model
CHP
Boiler
Electro-lyser
Heatpump and
electric boiler
PP
RES electricity
Fuel
RES heat
Hydro water Hydro storage
Hydro power plant
H2 storage
Electricity storagesystem
Import/Export
fixed and variable
Electricitydemand
Cooling device
Coolingdemand
Transport demand
Processheat
demandIndustry
Cars
Heat storage
Heat demand
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
Europe IEA 2010 and
EU CPI scenario 2050CPI = Current Policy Initiatives
IEA Statistics 2009
EU Energy Roadmap
2050
Reference (12% DH)(IEA 2010 and EU CPI 2050)
Versus
Reference plus 30% and 50% DH (and CHP etc.)
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
District Heating benefits in 2
stepsStep 1: (Energy Efficiency)- Increasing DH to 30% then 50%- Increasing CHP- Using Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHPStep 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources)- Industrial waste heat- Waste incineration- Geothermal heat- Large-scale Solar Thermal
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
Year 2010Step 1: Energy
Efficiency
IEA Statistic
s
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
Year 2010Step 2
IEA Statistics
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
Total European Energy Supply
7% reduction in Primary Energy Supply
13% reduction in fossil fuels
17% reduction in CO2-emissions
IEA Statistics
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
CPIreference
EU Energy Roadmap
2050 -100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
IEA 2010 EU CPI HRE RE EU CPI HRE RE
2010 2030 2050
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
[Mt]
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (P
J)
Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for House Heating 2010-2050EU CPI vs HRE RE
Existing CHP & DH
Additional CHP & DH
Other renewable
Biomass
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
CO2 Emissions
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
Total European Energy Supply
HRE 2050 compared to EU CPI 2050:
5% reduction in Primary Energy Supply
10% reduction in fossil fuels
13% reduction in CO2-emissions
EU Energy Roadmap
2050
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
Cost and Jobs
Saved fuel costs of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050
In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050
Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR
Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050: 8-9 million man-year in total
Approx. 220,000 jobs.
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050
Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP
Decrease primary energy supply and especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissions
Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approx. 10 Billion in 2050
Create additional 220,000 jobs in the period 2013-2050
Further integration of RES
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050 To be continued
In continuation of this study to make a tighter connection between the energy modelling part and the mapping part
Advocate full energy balance matrixes in future projections concerning the future European energy system such as Energy Roadmap 2050
Further optimise the DH-scenarios (replace electric heating, expand CHP and HP, further the integration of wind and PV etc.)
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE 2050 Thank you
Need further informationwww.heatroadmapeurope.eu